donsutherland1

I agree. That's part of the reason I provided a brief discussion of what could change things. I suspect that changes in ice minima may not be normally distributed.

On July 26, Arctic Sea Ice Extent was 6.385 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was below the previous minimum for the date of 6.512 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. 2012 went on to have a record low minimum figure of 3.177 million square kilometers. At present, it appears likely that 2019 will become only the second year on record with a minimum Arctic sea ice extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers. Ongoing climate change has been driving a long-term decline in Arctic sea ice extent, even as there have been yearly fluctuations due to internal variability. Since 2000, record low figures have occurred abruptly every few years followed by partial recovery. Since 2000, record figures below 6.000 million square kilometers were established as follows: 2002: 5.513 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.934 million square kilometers, 2003) 2005: 5.179 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.625 million square kilometers, 2006) 2007: 4.066 million square kilometers (peak prior to the next record: 5.054 million square kilometers, 2009) 2012: 3.177 million square kilometers (peak since then: 4.884 million square kilometers, 2014) Potential Minimum Extent Scenarios: Smallest decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2000-18): 4.810 million square kilometers Smallest decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 4.323 million square kilometers Mean decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.886 million square kilometers Median decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.966 million square kilometers Maximum decline from 7/25 to the minimum (2010-18): 3.069 million square kilometers Statistical Minimum Extent Scenarios (2010-18 Data): 5.000 million square kilometers or below: 99.9% 4.500 million square kilometers or below: 95% 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 62% 3.750 million square kilometers or below: 36% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 15% 3.000 million square kilometers or below: 1% New Record Low Minimum: 3% What could change things: These are statistical measures. Greater warmth and/or a more unfavorable pattern for preserving ice could lead to larger declines than implied statistically. A sustained period of cooler weather and/or a more favorable pattern for preserving ice could lead to higher figures than implied statistically. At least through the remainder of July, the balance of risks favors a greater decline than implied statistically. In part, the historic heat in Europe that is forecast to move into Iceland and Greenland in coming days may be partially the result of the warming Arctic via Arctic Amplification and the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as induced changes to the jet stream that lead to greater pattern persistence.

Updated Belgian national high temperature record: Review of station data revealed that Begijnendijk had a high temperature of 107° (41.8°C) yesterday.

Historic high temperature records in Europe: Gilze en Rijen, Netherlands: 105° (40.4°C) -- new national record Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 105° (40.6°C) -- new national record Lingen, Germany: 107° (41.5°C) -- new national record Paris: 109° (42.6°C)

Extreme heat shattered national high temperature records in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands today. The new national records are: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany: 104°F (39.9°C) Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103°F (39.3°C) Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102°F (38.9°C) More high temperature records will likely fall tomorrow in western Europe.

Update on the Historic Heat of June 2019 in France. Météo-France reported: During the heat wave of the end of June 2019, the old maximum temperature record in France of 44.1 ° C observed in Conqueyrac in the Gard on August 12, 2003 was beaten several times. Many stations have measured exceptional values. 45.9 ° C were thus noted on June 28 in Gallargues-le-Montueux in Gard. These values come from the network of automatic stations operated by Météo-France in real time... Météo-France also collects data observed by the State Climatological Network (RCE). This includes about 800 manual temperature stations, held by volunteer observers who send their observations with a few days' notice. Among all these observations, a maximum temperature value of 46.0 ° C was found in Vérargues (34), less than 10 km from the automatic station of Gallargues-le-Montueux . http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/74345599-c-est-officiel-on-a-atteint-les-46-c-en-france-en-juin 46.0°C is 114.8°F.

On July 9, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent fell below 8 million square kilometers (JAXA) to 7,953,297 square kilometers. That is the earliest date on record for less than 8 million square kilometers of ice. The previous earliest such date was July 10. That record was set in 2011 and tied in 2012.

As of 8 am, Allentown had picked up another 0.03" rain. That brings the year-to-date total precipitation during 2019 to 30.00". 2019 now ranks as Allentown's 103rd wettest year on record, just ahead of 1980 when 29.82" precipitation was recorded. The 102nd wettest year on record is 1965 when 30.55" precipitation was measured.

4.42" at PHL overnight.

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded: 1952: 67.69" 2011: 71.72" 2018: 66.96" Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.

it's sad that the scientific integrity of data is subordinate to non-scientific factors.

Are they saying snow measurements are handled according to non-scientific and non-quality control the criteria?

Congratulations to Boston, Providence, and other areas on Southern New England enjoying the heavy snow. After flirting with historic futility in places for a large part of winter, this is a most welcome snowstorm.

This looks like another nice storm for a region that still has a huge seasonal snowfall deficit. 3"-6"/4"-8" should be fairly common in places including Boston, Hartford, Providence, and Worcester with even several inches on parts of the Cape.

Previously, I noted that there was a single storm (March 9-10, 1999) where DCA picked up 8" or more snow, Philadelphia received < 3" and New York City had no snow. The accumulations for the most recent storm were 10.3" at DCA, 1.4" at PHL, and Trace at NYC. The trace tied the least snowfall at NYC when Washington received 10" or more snow, which was set during the February 4-7, 2010 snowstorm (since 1950). This storm brought the 2nd lowest figure at Philadelphia for any of Washington, DC's 10" or greater snowstorms. The record is 1.3" at PHL when 11.5" fell at DCA during the November 11-12, 1987 snowstorm.

It was nice to see DCA reach 10" for the first time since the January 22-23, 2016 mega snowstorm. Hopefully, all locations in the region will cash in with even larger amounts as the pattern continues to evolve toward a cold and potentially snowy one.

Distribution of Snowfall (January 12-14, 2019): Source: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

Latest PNS: 000 NOUS41 KLWX 140151 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031- 036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-141351- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 851 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 6 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/baltimore ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...District of Columbia... Somerset 1 SE 9.0 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter National Zoo 1 WSW 7.3 358 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Frostburg 2 ENE 5.0 511 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Frostburg 4.0 533 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Wolfe Mill 2 NNE 3.4 755 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Anne Arundel County... Annapolis 1 NW 7.7 750 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chelsea Beach NNE 7.4 750 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Annapolis 1 S 7.1 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bwi Airport 6.4 700 PM 1/13 Airport Green Haven 1 ESE 6.2 830 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Parole 2 NE 5.3 416 PM 1/13 Public ...Baltimore County... Daniels 1 ESE 4.5 410 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Brooklandville 2 NNW 4.2 715 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bentley Springs 1 E 2.8 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Baltimore City... Pimlico SE 5.0 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Calvert County... Huntingtown 2 SW 6.5 300 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Dares Beach 2 NW 6.0 329 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Carroll County... Westminster 2 SE 5.5 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Eldersburg 1 SE 5.1 600 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Oakland NE 4.6 515 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Manchester 1 SSW 3.0 300 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Charles County... Waldorf 2 W 6.8 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Point of Rocks 1 NE 10.2 815 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Adamstown 1 ESE 8.5 804 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bloomfield 2 WSW 7.7 800 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Rosemont SSE 7.5 645 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Walkersville 1 E 6.2 746 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter New Market N 5.3 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Sabillasville 2 SSE 4.5 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Simpsonville 1 W 10.3 745 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Elkridge 2 WSW 9.8 820 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Savage 1 ESE 9.6 805 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Simpsonville 1 SSE 9.6 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Columbia 2 N 9.3 615 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Columbia W 9.0 745 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Elkridge 2 W 9.0 835 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Elkridge 3 WNW 8.2 830 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Columbia 2 NW 8.0 823 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Jessup 2 WSW 8.0 650 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Oella 1 WSW 7.5 715 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Hanover ENE 7.0 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Four Corners 1 N 11.2 615 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter White Oak 1 W 11.0 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bethesda 1 NNW 10.5 715 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Washington Grove 1 N 10.5 720 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Damascus 3 SSW 10.3 800 PM 1/13 Co-Op Observer Laytonsville 1 NE 10.0 744 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Four Corners 1 NNW 10.0 640 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Germantown 9.5 716 PM 1/13 Private Company North Potomac 1 ESE 9.0 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Norbeck 1 ESE 9.0 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Fairland 1 NNE 8.5 735 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Takoma Park 8.0 403 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Garrett Park 1 N 7.1 420 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter North Potomac 1 SSE 6.8 715 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Prince Georges County... Cheverly S 9.8 750 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Marlton 1 WSW 8.8 755 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter College Park 1 ENE 8.2 500 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...St. Marys County... Callaway 2 W 6.2 802 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter California 3 NW 1.6 830 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Washington County... Boonsboro 3 NNE 6.6 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter VIRGINIA ...Albemarle County... Carrsbrook 3 WNW 5.0 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Arlington County... Ballston 1 SW 10.0 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Westover 1 SE 9.6 812 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Reagan National Apt 9.0 700 PM 1/13 Airport Ballston 1 SSW 8.3 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Arlington N 4.7 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...City of Alexandria... Alexandria 1 W 7.1 500 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Alexandria 1 ESE 7.0 506 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...City of Fairfax... Fairfax 1 N 9.2 657 PM 1/13 NWS Employee ...City of Falls Church... Falls Church SE 2.0 835 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...City of Manassas... Manassas 3 SSE 7.0 515 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Clarke County... Berryville 1 NNW 6.9 655 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Berryville 1 NE 6.0 715 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Culpeper County... Culpeper 2 WNW 6.1 500 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Merrifield 1 SE 10.5 730 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 2 N 10.2 717 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Reston 2 N 10.1 730 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Wolf Trap S 9.9 825 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Langley 1 SE 9.6 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Baileys Crossroads 1 9.5 745 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 2 ESE 9.4 556 PM 1/13 NWS Employee McLean 2 SW 9.2 658 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 3 NE 9.2 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Oakton 1 NE 9.0 525 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Vienna 1 WNW 9.0 750 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 3 N 9.0 616 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Reston 2 SW 8.9 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Rose Hill ENE 8.6 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Herndon 1 NNE 8.6 645 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Herndon 2 ENE 8.5 745 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter West Springfield 1 W 8.5 600 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Oakton 1 WSW 8.5 805 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Annandale S 8.1 548 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 2 NNE 8.0 430 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Vienna 8.0 524 PM 1/13 Co-Op Observer Annandale 1 E 7.8 545 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Centreville W 7.7 640 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Lincolnia 2 S 7.6 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Chantilly 3 SE 7.5 430 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Franconia 1 SSW 7.1 520 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Fairfax Station 1 N 7.0 600 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Franconia 1 N 6.5 538 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Fauquier County... Morrisville 1 SSE 5.3 630 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Whitacre 1 ESE 8.5 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Stephens City 2 E 6.5 445 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Winchester 2 S 6.5 503 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Loudoun County... Leesburg 1 ESE 10.8 822 PM 1/13 NWS Office Leesburg 2 E 10.0 605 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Leesburg 1 NNW 10.0 750 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Dulles International 9.6 700 PM 1/13 Airport Arcola 1 NNE 9.5 625 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bluemont ENE 9.0 545 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Leesburg 2 NW 9.0 706 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Purcellville 1 SW 9.0 513 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Purcellville 8.6 800 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Countryside 3 ESE 7.1 542 PM 1/13 Public Hughesville 1 ESE 6.5 315 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Leesburg 2 WNW 6.3 500 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Upperville 2 SSE 3.2 645 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Nelson County... Elma 2 SW 3.3 419 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Orange County... Flat Run 1 N 5.5 730 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Page County... Panorama 2 WSW 6.0 800 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Honeyville 1 ESE 5.0 455 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Gainesville 2 SSE 7.5 645 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Nokesville 7.3 700 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Woolsey 2 WSW 7.2 440 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Dumfries 1 ENE 7.0 745 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Independent Hill 3 N 6.5 600 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Dale City 1 W 6.4 640 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Manassas 6.0 445 PM 1/13 NWS Employee ...Somerset County... Smith Island 5460 E 9.0 725 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Stafford County... Glendie 2 SSE 6.4 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Aquia 1 NNE 6.0 615 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Holly Corner 1 ENE 5.7 609 PM 1/13 NWS Employee White Oak 5 SSW 5.0 530 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Ramoth 1 W 4.9 546 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Glendie 1 S 0.9 610 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Martinsburg 2 E 9.8 827 PM 1/13 NWS Employee Bunker Hill SE 6.0 525 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Hampshire County... Capon Bridge 3 WSW 10.0 730 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Hardy County... Wardensville 3 E 8.1 600 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Jefferson County... Halltown 2 N 6.8 705 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter Bloomery 3 SSE 3.9 700 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter ...Morgan County... Smith Crossroads 1 W 4.7 820 PM 1/13 Trained Spotter &&

At 7 am, Washington, DC had picked up 4.3" snow. That is Washington, DC's biggest snowstorm since January 22-23, 2016 when 17.8" fell. The 4.3" snowfall brings Washington's seasonal snowfall to 5.7". As a result, winter 2018-19 now ranks as Washington's 118th snowiest winter on record. Prior to the ongoing storm, winter 2018-19 was that city's 133rd snowiest winter. By the time the storm ends, Washington, DC will likely have its snowiest winter since 2015-16 when 22.2" snow fell. Last winter, only 7.8" snow was recorded and only 3.4" fell during winter 2016-17.

But not for this storm. It shows the strength of the confluence to the north. Typically, when Washington picks up 6" or more, PHL does much better than what the NAM showed. Hopefully, the NAM's idea will verify, as the DC region has not had much snowfall during the past two prior winters.

The 12z NAM shows an unusual distribution of snowfall centered around Washington, DC (where I believe 3"-6" is likely with locally higher amounts). The NAM shows 10" or more snow at DCA, less than 3" at Philadelphia, and no snow at New York City (where I believe no measurable snow will be reported). The only storm since 1950 that had 8" or more at DCA, <3" at PHL, and no snow at New York City occurred on March 9-10, 1999. Accumulations during that storm were: Baltimore: 4.6" New York City: None Philadelphia: 0.1" Richmond: 0.8" Salisbury: 5.4" Sterling: 8.9" Washington, DC: 8.4"

That's correct.

And if there's no more snow this winter (extremely unlikely), Winter 2018-19 would be Richmond's 59th snowiest on record.

Richmond picked up 11.5" snow. All of last winter saw 12.4" snow fall at Richmond. Since 2000-2001, only 6 winters have had more snowfall than winter 2018-19. Overall, winter 2018-19 now ranks as Richmond's 59th snowiest. Since snowfall measurements were commenced, 8/21 (7%) of winters saw 30" or more snow. However, 2/7 (29%) of winters that had 10" or more snow through December wound up with 30" or more snow. 4/7 (57%) picked up 20" or more vs. 26/121 (21%) overall. In short, Richmond may be on track for a very snowy winter.