donsutherland1

Winter 2024-2025 Outlook Rationale: The C3S appears reasonable given my base assumptions and scenario testing. Notable areas and areas where the outcome could diverge from the C3S forecast are highlighted on the maps. Outlook: The northwestern quarter of the United States has the highest risk of winding up somewhat colder than normal, especially in the Pacific Northwest where precipitation will likely be much above average. Precipitation will likely be below normal across the southern tier of the United States and up the East Coast into southern New England. The drought in the northeastern U.S. will likely intensify during the winter. Spring could turn wetter in that region. Select Snowfall Amounts: Albany: 50” Baltimore: 10” Boston: 35” (its record streak without 4” daily snowfall will likely end) Burlington: 75” Buffalo: 95” Charlotte: Trace (its record streak without measurable snowfall will likely continue) Chicago: 40” Detroit: 45” Harrisburg: 20” New York City: 16.5” (Statistical temperature-snowfall peers: 1952-53, 1998-99) Newark: 18” Philadelphia: 12” Portland: 60” Richmond: 4.5” Toronto: 45” (114.3 cm) Washington, DC: 8” Note: Snowfall estimates have the highest risk of error, as synoptic factors that cannot be assessed at seasonal timeframes are involved. Key Assumptions: ENSO: La Niña but possibly cold Neutral Relative ENSO: -0.5 or below AO/NAO: Predominantly positive with some variability PDO: Strongly negative to negative PNA: Generally negative EPO: Generally neutral to positive QBO: Strongly positive Additional Factors: Impact of High Marine Heat Content in the North Pacific: High marine heat content in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea, driven by marine heatwaves, has been associated with warmer winter temperatures in coastal regions. This can extend to broader climatic impacts, including potential warming in eastern North America. MJO-NAO: The MJO-NAO connection has been strengthening in a warming climate, likely due to an extending jet stream that allows for more effective Rossby wave propagation. The MJO has shown an increased tendency to spend more time in Phases 3-5, which tends to favor a positive NAO. An ongoing marine heatwave in the Marine Continent area could elevate the risk of Phases 3-5/4-6. NAO: Severe NAO blocks in September, as occurred this year, often precede winters with generally positive NAO regimes. Scenario Range: Scenarios from 1980-present Due to climate change and its impacts on the Northern Hemisphere cold pool (shrinking), atmospheric circulation (driven by Arctic amplification and marine heatwaves), and ongoing warming, years prior to 1980 reflect a climate that no longer exists. Pre-1980 scenarios are low probability scenarios, particularly with respect to expansive cold anomalies and widespread prolonged snow cover that helps sustain the cold. Winter 2016-17 (snowiest La Niña scenario used) Winter 2001-02 (low probability, neutral-cold ENSO winter) to address the question, “What is a likely worst case?”

A gradual warming trend will get underway tomorrow with temperatures returning to the 50s across the region. A mild and dry weekend is likely with readings in the lower 60s. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week. Rain is possible late next week. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +11.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.557 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

New York City saw its first low temperature in the 30s this morning. That was tied with 1946 for the third latest first sub-40° temperature of the season. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 is the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. The temperature will again top out in the middle and upper 40s tomorrow. A warm front will also slip across the region tomorrow. Afterward, it will again turn milder to end the week. A mild and dry weekend is likely with readings in the lower 60s. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +15.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.476 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

A just published paper revealed that a new climate oscillation is emerging in the Arctic Ocean due to climate change. This oscillation is characterized by multidecadal variations in annual surface temperature and is driven by intensified air-sea interaction due to sea-ice loss. This new mode of internal variability is projected to emerge when sea ice declines below a critical threshold, potentially impacting global weather and climate. Multiple lines of evidence from climate model simulations support the emergence of this new oscillation. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the oscillation emerging in the 21st century. Additionally, analysis of mid-Pliocene simulations from the PlioMIP2 suggests the potential existence of this oscillation in past warm climates. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02171-3

A strong cold shot will deliver the coldest air mass, by far, this fall into the region. The temperature will fall into the 30s tomorrow morning in Central Park. This would rank as the third latest first sub-40° temperature of the season. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. The temperature will remain in the middle and upper 40s for highs tomorrow and Thursday. A warm front will also slip across the region Thursday. Afterward, it will again turn milder to end the week. A mild and dry weekend is likely. The dry weather will likely continue into at least early next week. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +14.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.278 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

Today will be the warmest day for some time to come. A strong cold shot is likely during the middle of the week. The temperature will very likely fall below 40° during Wednesday morning (November 13th) or perhaps late Tuesday night in Central Park. This would rank as the third or fourth latest first sub-40° temperature. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consecutive year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. A few scattered showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front moves across the region. Afterward, it will again turn milder. A mild weekend is likely. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +4.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.104 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

Showers and periods of rain are now overspreading the region. Light rain is falling in parts of the New York City area. Wilmington, DE has seen its first measurable rainfall since September 28th. Periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. A few showers will be possible on Thursday as a warm front moves across the region. A strong cold shot is likely during the middle of the week. The temperature will very likely fall below 40° during Wednesday morning (November 13th) or perhaps late Tuesday night in Central Park. This would rank as the third or fourth latest first sub-40° temperature. The average first such temperature occurs on October 24th (1991-2020 baseline). 2024 will be the fourth consective year with the first such temperature occurring in November. The old record was three consecutive years during 1994-1996. It will again turn milder late in the week or during the following weekend. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.691 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.6° (3.6° above normal).

Most products I have seen are fine.

It's absurd. The correct map, and I deliberately use "correct," as that's from the NCEP website: It's unfortunate that WB continues to post flawed maps. At the end of the winter, it would be a useful exercise to compare the actual outcomes to the official NCEP CFSv2 map and the WB version.

The final C3S winter 2024-2025 guidance is now in. Temperatures: Precipitation: October Comparisons: Temperatures: Precipitation: It should be noted that there is some variation on a month-to-month basis with December featuring the most widespread warmth (monthly average). There can still be shorter periods of cold that don't stand out on seasonal or monthly guidance. The upcoming cold shot for parts of the eastern half of the U.S. this week is one example.

A new paper, "Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States", has revealed that the nature of droughts in the Western United States has changed due to climate change. Three key points: 1. The western United States has experienced a significant shift in the primary driver of drought, from precipitation deficits to high evaporative demand, primarily due to anthropogenic warming. This change occurred around the year 2000. Rising surface temperatures increase the atmosphere's capacity to hold water vapor, leading to higher evaporative demand and intensifying drought severity. 2. Historically, precipitation deficits were the main factor in WUS droughts, but since 2000, rising temperatures and resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%). 3. The paper revealed that natural climate variability is the dominant factor influencing precipitation, while anthropogenic warming is mainly responsible for the observed changes in evaporative demand.

Clouds will increase on tomorrow with periods of rain developing during the evening and continuing into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. An additional round of rain is possible late next week. Aside from unseasonable warmth, next week will generally see near normal to occasionally somewhat below normal readings. Today is Philadelphia's 42nd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 42 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. Those record streaks will end tomorrow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -2.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.691 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5° (3.5° above normal).

I smelled the smoke yesterday.

It’s also the second warmest January-October period on record.

Tomorrow will be a noticeably cooler day. Temperatures will climb into only the lower 50s after starting out in the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City. Clouds will increase on Sunday with periods of rain developing during the night and continuing into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" rainfall is likely. An additional round of rain is possible late next week. Today is Philadelphia's 41st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 41 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -14.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.986 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.7° (3.7° above normal).

I suspect that the 1950 record at Ann Arbor will stand for quite some time to come. It's just so far beyond anything that has occurred in January that it's difficult to see its being matched or broken anytime soon. The Detroit record might be something that could be challenged over the next decade or so.

Today was another warm day, though quite a bit cooler than yesterday's record warmth. However, parts of the Mid-Atlantic region experienced additional near record and record heat. Daily records included: Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 81°, 2022) Norfolk: 80° (old record: 79°, 2022) Richmond: 85° (old record: 84°, 2022) Salisbury: 82° (tied record set in 2022) Sterling: 80° (old record: 79°, 2022 and 2023) Washington, DC: 84° (old record: 81°, 2022) In addition, Norfolk's 80° day was its fourth this month. That tied the November record set in 1950 and tied in 1974. It will turn somewhat cooler for tomorrow, but temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms. The gradual cooldown will continue into the weekend. Some rain to affect the region Sunday night into Monday. Parts of the region could be in line for 0.25"-0.50" of rain. An additional round of rain is possible late next week. Today is Philadelphia's 40th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 40 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -11.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.443 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.7° (3.7° above normal).

March, for sure. I used February, because March had already seen 90° heat in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region previously and February has seen the highest temperature for any winter month.

For February? Very unlikely anytime soon in the northern Middle Atlantic, much less New England regions. Based on average maximum temperature data and data for warming (at the 1980-2024 rate), such an outcome would be extremely unlikely for Newark, which recorded an 80° temperature in February 2018. Below is a chart showing the lower and upper 99.9% limits. By 2030, the upper-bound is likely to be 84°. Occasionally, the extremes break through such limits, as occurred in Phoenix in early October. However, the 6° difference between 90° and the upper bound by 2030 is so large, that it would be all but impossible to see a 90° February temperature in Newark or elsewhere in the northern Mid-Atlantic region through at least 2030.

Latest drought outlook:

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose to near record and record highs across much of the region. Some locations tied or set November monthly records. High temperatures included: Albany: 77° (old record: 73°, 2015) Allentown: 79° (old record: 78°, 1948) Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 1961) Baltimore: 81° (tied record set in 2015) Bangor: 75°(tied record set in 1938) ***Tied November monthly record*** Boston: 82° (old record: 76°, 2022) ***Latest 80° temperature*** Bridgeport: 73° (old record: 72°, 2022) Caribou: 72° (old record: 71°, 2022) Concord: 80° (old record: 75°, 1948 and 2022) ***Tied November monthly record*** Harrisburg: 80° (old record: 77°, 1948) Hartford: 84° (old record: 76°, 2015 and 2022) ***Tied November monthly record*** Manchester: 80° (old record: 77°, 2022) ***New November monthly record*** New York City-Central Park: 80° (old record: 75°, 2022) New York City-JFK Airport: 75° (tied record set in 2015) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 80° (old record: 75°, 2015 and 2022) Newark: 83° (old record: 80°, 1948) Philadelphia: 80° (old record: 79°, 1948) Portland: 79° (old record: 71°, 2020) ***New November monthly record*** Poughkeepsie: 81° (old record: 77°, 2015) ***Latest 80° temperature*** Providence: 77° (old record: 75°, 2015) Reading: 83° (old record: 79°, 1975) Sterling: 83° (old record: 80°, 2015) Trenton: 80° (old record: 77°, 1948) Washington, DC: 83° (old record: 80°, 2015) Wilmington, DE: 81° (old record: 79°, 1948) Worcester: 78° (old record: 72°, 2022) It will turn somewhat cooler for tomorrow and Friday, but both days will still be unseasonably warm. There is growing model support for at least some rain to affect the region late in the weekend. Parts of the region could be in line for 0.25"-0.50" of rain. Today is Philadelphia's 39th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 39 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -6.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.806 today.

I hope so, too.

Records have already been tied or broken at New York City (Central Park), Newark, and White Plains. Bridgeport and Islip are 1° short of their daily records. Newark has reached 80° for the second time this month, which ties the November record from 1950.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose to well above seasonal norms. High temperatures included: Albany: 72° Bridgeport: 68° New York City: 73° Islip: 70° Newark: 76° Poughkeepsie: 76° Rochester reached 81°. That broke the daily record of 77° from 2022 and tied the all-time November record of 81° that was set on November 1, 1933. It is also the latest 80° or above temperature on record (old record last date: November 2, 1933) Tomorrow will see some locations challenge or break records. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s. Warmer spots could reach 80°. It will turn somewhat cooler for Thursday and Friday, but both days will still be unseasonably warm. There is growing model support for at least some rain to affect the region late in the weekend. Parts of the region could be in line for 0.25"-0.50" of rain. Today is Philadelphia's 38th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874. Wilmington, DE has also gone 38 consecutive days without measurable precipitation. The old record of 34 days was set during January 7 through February 9, 1909. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -4.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.240 today.

There has been none warmer than the current outlook. But the archived data only goes back to November 2017.