donsutherland1

Thanks, Jerry. We’re well. I hope your family and you stay healthy and enjoy a good winter.

Central Park has reached 32 degrees. That is New York City’s first October freeze since October 31, 1988 when the temperature fell to 31 degrees.

The MJO was in Phase 2 in 2011, but is currently in Phase 7.

Today, a cold rain fell in New York City and just outside the City, snow fell. Across parts of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State down into the Hudson Valley and central New England, there was accumulating snow. Boston experienced its biggest October snowfall on record with 4.3" snow. The previous daily record for October was 0.6", which was set in 2011. Boston's previous biggest October snowfall was 1.1", which fell on October 29, 2005. Boston's Measurable Snowfalls for October are: October 29, 2005: 1.1" October 18, 2009: 0.1" October 29, 2011: 0.4" October 30, 2011: 0.6" October 30, 2020: 4.3" There were similarities between the October 2011 snowfall and today's snowfall in that both the ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3.4 regions had cold anomalies, the AO and NAO were positive, and the PNA was negative. October 29-30, 2011 Snowfall: October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -0.60 October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -0.97 AO: +0.944 NAO: +0.199 PNA: -0.027 October 30, 2020 Snowfall: October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -1.17 (through week centered around October 23) October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -1.33 (through week centered around October 23) AO: +1.352 NAO: +0.471 PNA: -0.541 The MJO was in a different phase. During the 2011 snowfall, the MJO was in Phase 2 (Amplitude: 1.253). This time around, it was in Phase 7 (10/29 Amplitude: 1.277). Select snowfall figures included: Albany: 1.2" Binghamton: 0.3" Boston: 4.3" Bridgeport: Trace Foster, RI: 6.2" Grafton, MA: 7.6" Hartford: 1.8" Islip: Trace Newark: Trace Providence: 1.1" Worcester: 4.1" October will start out with many locations near or below freezing. New York City's suburbs will likely see temperatures fall into the 20s. November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +0.19. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.352. On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.277 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.275. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.9°.

Some areas on the North Shore have reported snow.

From Greenwich, CT:

POU is now reporting light snow.

Morning thoughts... At 7:15 AM, a cold rain was falling across parts of the region. In parts of northern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, central New York State and central New England, snow was falling. At Albany, it was 30° with light snow. Likely daytime high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 46° After a cold start, tomorrow will be fair and chilly.

Tropical Storm Zeta has already brought a soaking rain to the region. Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals include: Allentown: 1.20" Baltimore: 2.16" Bridgeport: 1.11" Harrisburg: 1.07" Islip: 1.14" New York City: 1.41" Newark: 1.47" Philadelphia: 1.51" Washington, DC: 2.18" Zeta is racing east-northeastward at 55 mph and will be moving back over the Atlantic Ocean. As it heads out to sea, much colder air from eastern Canada will be drawn into its circulation. At the same time, another area of rain that stretches from eastern Missouri to western New York State will head toward the region. As a result, at least some snowfall is likely in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State down to parts of the Hudson Valley, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. The remainder of the region will see periods of rain well into tomorrow. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -13.93. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.828. On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.266 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.628. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8°.

A quick video clip:

With 4.2” snow at Albuquerque, October 2020 is that city’s snowiest October on record. The previous snowiest October was 1986 when 3.2” snow was measured.

Morning thoughts... Tropical Storm Zeta will race northeastward and then east-northeastward toward the Middle Atlantic region before moving off the Delmarva Peninsula or perhaps New Jersey coast out into the Atlantic Ocean this evening. It will be increasingly windy with periods of heavy rain. A general 1”-3” rainfall is likely. The temperature will gradually fall from its 7 AM figures. 7 AM temperatures around the region included: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Tonight into tomorrow, portions of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State extending down into parts of the Hudson Valley, and central New England could see some snow. Precipitation will end tomorrow and it will be blustery with readings likely staying in the 40s.

New paper on the impact of declining ice, including Arctic sea ice: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3

Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coast late this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. As of 6:47 pm CDT, New Orleans had picked up 2.90" rain. That broke the daily record of 1.51", which was set in 1980. Zeta will move rapidly north and then eastward overnight and tomorrow before exiting off the Delmarva Peninsula or perhaps southern New Jersey coastline. As a result, a general 1"-3" rainfall appears likely in much of the region. Parts of northern Virginia, the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Delaware could pick up 2"-4" of rain. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could bring the mercury to freezing even in New York City on Tuesday morning, making for a chilly start to Election Day. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -14.38. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.280. That is the highest figure since March 25, 2020 when the AO was +3.174. On October 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.623 (RMM). The October 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.941. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8°.

Zeta now at 110 mph.

That seems to be the emerging consensus. China has committed to 2060. The U.S. currently has not committed to any year, but that should change next year.

Morning thoughts... At 8:30 AM, an area of rain covered much of extreme southeastern New York, the Long Island Sound and Connecticut. It was heading eastward away from the area. Some showers were still located as far west as northeastern Pennsylvania. Overall, once the light rain and showers exit the region, today will be mostly cloudy and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Zeta will bring a general 1"-3" rainfall across the region tomorrow into Friday followed by a shot of sharply colder air. Parts of northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware could see 2"-4" of rain.

This is what a fundamentally corrupt Administration looks like. The New York Times reported: The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency. The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election. An early sign of the shift came last month, when Erik Noble, a former White House policy adviser who had just been appointed NOAA’s chief of staff, removed Craig McLean, the agency’s acting chief scientist. Mr. McLean had sent some of the new political appointees a message that asked them to acknowledge the agency’s scientific integrity policy, which prohibits manipulating research or presenting ideologically driven findings. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/climate/trump-election-climate-noaa.html

Temperatures again rose in the upper 50s and lower 60s today. Tomorrow will feature similar temperatures, but a much colder air mass will move into the region later this week. Out West, there was again widespread record cold. Hebron, Colorado recorded a temperature of -33° this morning. Select records included: Aberdeen, SD: 1° (old record: 10°, 1919) Albuquerque: 19° (old record: 21°, 1913) ***Tied Monthly Record*** Cheyenne: 0° (old record: 5°, 1925) Denver: 8° (old record: 11°, 1925) Laramie, WY: -26° (old record: -16°, 2011) ***New Monthly Record*** Rapid City: 2° (old record: 11°, 2019) Tucson: 32° (old record: 35°, 1970) Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast tomorrow and then turn north and eastward and then exit from an area running from the Delmarva Peninsula to perhaps the New Jersey coast. As a result, Thursday into part of Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. A general 1"-3" rainfall appears likely. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -3.48. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.257. That is the highest figure since the AO was +3.174 on March 25, 2020. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.940 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.000. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0°.

At Noon, some drier air had worked into the region. Partial to full sunshine was present in an area running from eastern Pennsylvania, across central New Jersey and into southeastern New York State. Clouds will likely increase later in the day with temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 60s.

CNN reported: Japan's Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, said the country will aim to become carbon neutral by 2050. In his first policy speech since taking office last month, Suga told Japan's parliament Monday that his "administration will put the maximum effort to realize the green society by setting a virtuous cycle in the economy and the environment." https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/asia/japan-emissions-target-2050-scli-intl/index.html While a shrinking number of "hold outs" is resisting even modest moves toward decarbonization, international leaders are beginning to act on the science. The scientific debate has long ended. Now, the political debate is ending. U.S. Presidential candidate Joe Biden has called for carbon neutrality by 2050. Japan has adopted the same goal. New Zealand has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The European Union has also committed to this goal. These developments suggest that the basis for a formal multilateral agreement that would be aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 now exists. Such an agreement could be a successor agreement to the Paris Climate Agreement, which was adopted in 2016.

Morning thoughts... Today mostly cloudy with some drizzle and widely scattered showers. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 63° A significant precipitation event from Zeta followed by a brief shot of sharply colder air is likely toward the end of the week. Yesterday, Albuquerque picked up 2.9" snow, which smashed the daily record of 0.1" from 1996. The temperature there fell to 19°, broke the daily record of 25° set in 1908 and tied in 1916, and tied the October record. This morning record cold covered parts of the Plains States. Select records as of 8 am EDT included: Aberdeen, SD: 1° (old record: 10°, 1919) Albuquerque: 19° (old record: 21°, 1913) ***Tied Monthly Record*** Denver: 8° (old record: 11°, 1925) Laramie, WY: -26° (old record: -16°, 2011) ***New Monthly Record*** Rapid City: 2° (old record: 11°, 2019)

Temperatures rose in the upper 50s with some lower 60s today. The remainder of the closing week of October will likely see temperatures average below normal courtesy of a cold close to the month. Out west, numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Some highlights: Bozeman, MT: -20° (old record: 11°, 2002) ***New October Record*** Butte, MT: -18° (old record: 9°, 2002) Casper: -7° (old record: 12°, 2002) Cody, WY: -9° (old record: 5°, 1919) Missoula, MT: -5° (old record: 15°, 2002) Potomac, MT: -21° (old record: 5°, 2002) Rapid City: -7° (old record: 2°, 1997) Salt Lake City: 19° (old record: 22°, 1878) At Lyman, WY, the temperature fell to -31°. The system that brought an October record 14.0" snow to Cheyenne yesterday will likely bring a significant snowfall to parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and perhaps even portions of the Texas Panhandle into tomorrow. As that storm heads eastward, Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. As a result, late Thursday through Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. November could commence on a cool note with the first week winding up somewhat cooler than normal. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -2.84. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.141. On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.993 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.027. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.1°.

The status quo approach poses a substantial risk of extinction and reduction of biodiversity. Treating it as an immutable constant by virtue of its being the existing approach is far more hazardous to nature than working on alternatives and improving alternatives. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211

Unfortunately, the GFS-parallel is based on the FV3 core rather than the now widely-used and effective 4D-Var initialization scheme (ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM). Inferior initialization coupled with other model issues can lead to wild outcomes. For perspective, it will be worth revisiting this forecast for verification purposes. Albany's lowest October temperature is 16 degrees. Its earliest single-digit reading occurred on November 16. It is all but certain that Albany will not have a 9 degree temperature on October 31.