donsutherland1

And one run of the UKMET.

TPV = tropopause polar vortex

Yes, I recall them. While snow depth can shrink much faster that what was described in my message, typically one would see similar changes throughout the region. When one location is reporting a much bigger change in snow cover relative to another part in the same broad area, but there are no variables to explain the difference (including mesoscale factors such as localized rain), that is often an indication of a bad measurement.

Yes. Flushing in Queens reported 13.5”. So, east of there a lot of snow also fell. Out at the Twin Forks, there was less snow e.g., Cutchogue on the North Fork picked up 8.0”.

Morning thoughts... At 8 am, the last snow showers associated with the departing storm responsible for this week’s heavy snowfall were located in eastern Massachusetts. Today will be mostly sunny and seasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 39° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some rain and possibly snow showers. Snow showers will likely be confined north and west of Newark and New York City. During tomorrow and the weekend, temperatures could surge to record high levels in Canada’s Nunavut Province. That push of that warmth will dislodge a very cold air mass from northwestern Canada. It remains to be seen whether that air mass will eventually push into the region. If so, it likely would not arrive until late next week.

Perhaps the area of snow can reach Islip and bring the 0.2” needed to bring its storm total snowfall to 12.0”.

If the rumored 22” depth is accurate, it almost certainly won’t stand. This afternoon, first order stations including Allentown and New York City had seen depth come out between 75% and 80% of total snowfall. Newark’s depth was > 90% of total snowfall. 22” would be around 63% of the 35.1” figure and that was reportedly a morning measurement.

I’m glad there’s quality control. Even considering compression, 35.5” should not have shrunk to 22” under the conditions in place.

The PNS indicated that the measurement was taken by a trained spotter. ...Morris County... Mount Arlington 35.5 in 1230 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter

Parts of the region experienced snow flurries and even some light snow. Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include: Albany: 46.4" (10.3" above normal) Baltimore: 6.1" (5.1" below normal) Binghamton: 77.4" (28.7" above normal) Boston: 24.3" (0.1" below normal) Bridgeport: 28.9" (14.6" above normal) Buffalo: 46.5" (17.2" below normal) Burlington: 44.1" (2.1" below normal) Caribou: 57.9" (4.9" below normal) Harrisburg: 24.5" (8.8" above normal) Islip: 19.5" (6.2" above normal) New York City: 28.0" (14.9" above normal) Newark: 31.1" (16.4" above normal) Philadelphia: 14.7" (3.4" above normal) Portland: 34.5" (1.2" below normal) Providence: 18.4" (1.8" below normal) Washington, DC: 3.5" (5.6" below normal) Somewhat milder air will return to the region in coming days, but its stay won't be long. Another shot of cold air will likely arrive during or after the coming weekend. Prospects of snowfall have diminished. The number of EPS members showing measurable snowfall has fallen over the past two cycles. The operational guidance also suggests that a storm will pass too far to the south and east of the region on Sunday to have much if any impact. Nevertheless, there remains some uncertainty. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +18.01 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.762. On February 2 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.382 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 2.074. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the second week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 17.5" snow.

Here’s one recent paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbc93/pdf And one that projects increases in Category 3 and 4 storms (RSI) until mid-century before the frequency declines. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820

Part of the difference is almost certainly a reflection of differing measurement methodologies. However, the frequency of major snowstorms has increased relative to where it was during the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s when measuring methodologies were essentially the same as they are today. After 1970, New York City has also experienced the emergence of a wetter climate. The same holds true for many of the climate sites in the Northeast.

Great point. Warmer air holds more moisture. The increased tendency for marine heatwaves being driven by climate change creates an increased probability of major snowstorms when synoptic conditions are favorable for storms. These storms can produce far more snowfall than had been the case without the warming/marine heatwaves even if all other variables are held constant.

GGEM at 210 hours: 1060 mb high on the Saskatchewan-Montana border. It’s not often one sees such strong highs in North America, even on the guidance.

Yes. I was focused on significant snowfalls that followed major snowfalls.

954 NOUS41 KOKX 031456 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-040253- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 953 AM EST Wed Feb 3 2021 ...PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS RECEIVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS FOR RECENT STORM... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... 4 SSE Sherman 19.0 in 0600 AM 02/03 Trained Spotter Fairfield 16.0 in 0225 PM 02/02 Public Bridgeport Airport 15.8 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs Greenwich 15.2 in 0730 PM 02/02 Public 2 SW Newtown 13.8 in 0900 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio ...New Haven County... 1 WNW Ansonia 13.0 in 1037 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer 1 NNW Guilford 12.6 in 0700 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer 2 SE West Haven 11.0 in 1131 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter ...New London County... 1 SSE Norwich 8.0 in 1055 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Westwood 22.0 in 1200 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Ridgewood 20.1 in 0700 AM 02/03 Trained Spotter 1 W Ho-Ho-Kus 20.1 in 1046 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 N Englewood 19.5 in 1011 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 19.0 in 1110 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Park Ridge 17.0 in 0225 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Glen Rock 16.7 in 1207 PM 02/02 Public ...Essex County... 1 NNE Livingston 17.0 in 0950 AM 02/02 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 18.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer Hoboken 16.5 in 0515 AM 02/03 Emergency Mngr ...Passaic County... 3 NE West Milford 24.7 in 0930 AM 02/02 Public Wayne 15.0 in 1130 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter ...Union County... Newark Airport 18.2 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 ENE Harlem 17.8 in 1200 PM 02/02 CO-OP Observer 1 W East Tremont 16.9 in 0300 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter ...Kings County... Bay Ridge 18.2 in 0100 PM 02/02 Emergency Mngr 2 N Crown Heights 17.3 in 1000 AM 02/02 Public ...Nassau County... 1 N Syosset 17.1 in 0700 AM 02/03 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Plainview 15.1 in 0900 AM 02/02 Public 1 WNW Herricks 14.3 in 1150 PM 02/02 Public 1 NE Plandome 13.5 in 0930 AM 02/02 Public Port Washington 12.3 in 0405 PM 02/02 Public 1 S Jericho 11.7 in 1130 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter ...New York County... Central Park 17.4 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... 2 N Orange Lake 22.3 in 0745 AM 02/03 Trained Spotter Port Jervis 22.0 in 0700 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer Newburgh 21.2 in 0330 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Monroe 21.0 in 1215 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Middletown 20.4 in 0930 AM 02/02 Fire Dept/Rescue Gardnertown 18.0 in 0230 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter ...Putnam County... Cold Spring 19.5 in 1000 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio Mahopac 18.0 in 1230 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Putnam Valley 17.5 in 0300 PM 02/02 Broadcast Media 2 NW Jefferson Valley 15.0 in 0800 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer 1 NNE Carmel 13.2 in 0800 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer ...Queens County... Whitestone 17.5 in 0600 PM 02/02 Public Howard Beach 17.0 in 0900 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter NYC/La Guardia 14.3 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs 1 SSW Elmhurst 14.1 in 0745 PM 02/02 Public NYC/JFK 12.6 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs ...Rockland County... 1 NNW New City 19.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter Pearl River 17.3 in 1100 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 NNW Nanuet 17.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio ...Suffolk County... Commack 17.0 in 0900 AM 02/03 Public 1 S Centerport 15.1 in 0800 AM 02/03 CO-OP Observer 1 NW Mount Sinai 15.0 in 1055 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer Upton 14.8 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs 3 NNE Calverton 14.8 in 1049 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer 3 WNW Aquebogue 13.0 in 1057 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer Islip Airport 11.8 in 0700 AM 02/03 Official NWS Obs Bridgehampton 4.5 in 1051 AM 02/02 CO-OP Observer ...Westchester County... 1 NE Buchanan 21.0 in 0900 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 3 N Mount Kisco 20.5 in 0815 AM 02/03 Public Armonk 19.7 in 0900 AM 02/02 Public 2 SSW Yonkers 17.3 in 1000 PM 02/02 Trained Spotter Croton-on-Hudson 16.6 in 0900 AM 02/02 Trained Spotter 1 N Armonk 14.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio 1 N White Plains 14.0 in 1000 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio New Rochelle 11.5 in 1000 AM 02/02 Amateur Radio &&

Some flurries.

Yes. That’s correct. I didn’t include those storms for NYC, as the earlier storm had less than 10” snow (9”). The second brought 12.8”.

I am not aware of such storms following closely. However, there were two cases where a 10" snowfall was followed less than one week later by another 6" or greater snowfall in New York City: November 26-27, 1898: 10.0" and November 29-30, 1898: 6.0" February 3-4, 1926: 10.4" and February 9-10, 1926: 12.0"

The sun has broken through in Larchmont in southern Westchester County after a coating of snow overnight.

The storm rapidly developed along an Arctic front. Its heaviest snows fell north and east of New York City. Bridgeport likely experienced a localized heavy band within an area of heavy snowfall. Some additional accumulations: New Jersey: Layton (3 NW) in Sussex County: 4.5”; New Brunswick: 10.0”; Newark: 7.5” New York City: 7.6” (Mount Vernon just to the north and east of the City: 11.0”) East of NYC: Connecticut: Bridgeport: 25.5”; Waterbury: 18.0” Long Island: Farmingdale (2 NE): 14.0”; Setauket: 18.1” Much more recently, one saw a roughly similar difference over a somewhat shorter distance: The January 26-28, 2015 storm brought 9.8” to NYC and 6.5” to Newark. Islip received 24.9”.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and cool. Some areas could still experience a snow flurries or snow showers. Clouds could begin to break during the day. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 35° Newark: 36° Philadelphia: 36° Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and a bit milder. In the extended range, there remains a possibility that another storm could impact the region late in the weekend or early next week, though the spread among EPS members has widened since the 2/2 12z cycle.

Thanks.

It did very well with both the December 16-17 and the most recent storm. I am not sure why it didn’t run for the 12z and 18z cycles.

New York City received 7.6”. Bridgeport picked up 25.5”.