donsutherland1

Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop as some of the heat baking the Southwest moves into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Albuquerque: 100° (tied record set in 1980) Blythe, CA: 113° Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1988) Death Valley, CA: 125° Denver: 100° (old record: 96°, 2020) Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940) Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 1940) Needles, CA: 118° (tied record set in 2000) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1974) Salt Lake City: 97° Tucson: 114° (old record: 109°, 1985 and 1988) ***5th consecutive record high temperature*** At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That ties June 24-28, 1990 for the second longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. At Denver, the temperature reached 100° for the second consecutive day. This is the earliest two consecutive-day period on record where the temperature reached or exceeded 100° at Denver. The prior record was set during June 22-23, 2012. The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 17-19 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017 Record high minimum temperatures: June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record tomorrow. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +17.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.172 today. On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.265 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

The thunderstorm passed north of Central Park and LGA.

At what location?

This is a great site: http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

The preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 90°. That would surpass the daily record of 86°, which was set in 1988. It would also be the second earliest 90° minimum temperature on record. The earliest such reading occurred on June 14, 2018 when the minimum temperature was 90°. All 90° minimum temperatures prior to June 23 have occurred 2000 or later and 5 of the 6 such readings (including today's preliminary figure) occurred 2010 or later.

120° High Temperatures (June 15, 2021) Death Valley, CA: 124° Needles, CA: 121° Blythe, CA: 120° Palm Springs, CA: 120° ***Earliest 120° temperature on record***

It should be cooler today (upper 90s to near 100). The heat has peaked there.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8° Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7° A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 16: Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 113° to 117°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the modeled values*** Tucson: 109°, 1985 and 1988 (Forecast: 111° to 115°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Yesterday, Denver had a high temperature of 101°. Since 1872, Denver has had 16 days on which the temperature reached 100° or higher in June. Just 1 (6%) day occurred prior to 1980. In contrast, 11 (69%) have occurred 2000 or later, including 9 (56%), which have occurred 2010 or later.

Thanks. I was able to avoid the coronavirus and am now fully vaccinated. Welcome back. The more voices to defend science, the better. Stay well.

The final figure was 107, which tied the all-time record.

The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°. Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record*** Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record*** Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000) Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993) Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974) Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009) Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974) Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record*** Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record*** The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +24.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today. On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

Welcome back to the climate subforum. I hope all is well with you.

Michael Mann is far more than just a statistician. His educational background is: 1998 Ph.D. Yale University, Department of Geology & Geophysics (defended 1996) 1991 M.Phil. Yale University, Department of Physics 1991 M.S. Yale University, Department of Physics 1989 A.B. (double), University of California-Berkeley, Applied Math, Physics (Honors) Why do you think the field of climate science is “kind of useless.” If anything, the demand for climate science is increasing in a world where climate change is increasingly manifesting itself in extreme events, including the ongoing drought and heat that extends from the Southwest into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Tucson is already in the midst of an extreme heat event (Clarke, et al., 2014 methodology). Last year, Phoenix experienced two such events in a single year for the first time on record. Records there go back to 1896. The changing climate has enormous macroeconomic and societal implications. Even as the primary cause of the ongoing climate change is no longer debated in scientific circles, important uncertainties ranging from feedbacks to potential tipping points exist. There is much work to be done in the field. Moreover, the public is looking for increasing information on climate change. And the Weather Channel is poised to integrate climate change into its programming to serve that public need. I like your posts on El Niño and the SOI—I think highly of them—but I profoundly disagree with your statement, “research and controversy exists because it is less clear what happens to the trends at a regional and seasonal level, which means it isn't settled, not really.” Any controversy is not the result of scientists disagreeing on the big issue of what is happening and why, it is due to the climate change denial industry that is desperately seeking to prop up an unsustainable greenhouse gas-polluting fossil fuel industry. That industry, like the Tobacco one before it, has injected disinformation into the public discourse aimed at fostering doubt and delegitimizing science. That disinformation has had some impact. Moreover, the fossil fuel industry is enjoying a free ride unlike any other industry. The IMF has calculated that the fossil fuel industry receives the equivalent of an after-tax annual subsidy in excess of $600 billion per year, as the public bears the full cost of its externalities. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019089.ashx (p.35) You write, “But the public has literally no use for knowing that the oceans are forecast to rise, given record populations in coastal areas.” Again, I strongly disagree. Even as coastal areas account for just 10% of the U.S. land, 127 million people reside there. This is information the public needs to know. Ignorance of such information is a recipe for disaster. Finally, according to the most recent GAO report on the topic, climate science research funding came to $13.2 billion in FY 2017. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-223

It has happened there a number of times.. Yesterday's was the earliest on record, though.

At 3 pm MDT, Casper had a temperature of 101°. That smashed the daily record of 93°, which was set in 1946 and tied in 1959 and 1987. It is also Casper's earliest 100° temperature on record. The prior earliest such temperature occurred on June 21, 2016. Summer records go back to 1940.

Yes, that is true. My point is one would need to be careful when dealing with large-scale changes that may come with large unforeseen and unintended consequences. I believe that the safer course is more aggressive winding down of fossil fuel energy.

This morning, the preliminary low temperature at Phoenix was 85°. The temperature should reach 115° or above this afternoon, but there remains a risk that smoke from the Telegraph fire could trim temperatures by 1°-2°. Meanwhile, the final high temperature at Medicine Hat, AB was 100° yesterday.

Friday might offer the best chance, but the smoke from the Telegraph fire, which held down temperatures yesterday, could thwart it.

There would be risks, some of which are unforeseen, with geoengineering. For example, it might prove harmful for the overall environment. Moreover, if every country starts engaging in it, the outcome could be disruptive and have potential to lead to conflict.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.7°; 15-Year: 79.5° Newark: 30-Year: 81.8°; 15-Year: 81.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.4° A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 15: Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the model values*** Tucson: 110°, 1896 (Forecast: 112° to 116°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. Tomorrow will be turn partly sunny and seasonably warm. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Billings: 103° (old record: 98°, 1959) ***Hottest so early in the season*** Casper: 99° (old record: 96°, 2018) Death Valley, CA: 118° Denver: 98° Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1974) Great Falls: 99° (old record: 98°, 1987) Medicine Hat, AB: 99° (old record: 86°, 2009) Phoenix: 113° (smoke shrouded the sun at times) Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 101°, 1974) Tucson: 112° (old record: 111°, 1993) The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 15-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.513 today. On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.976 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.449 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

For reference, Dr. Hansen’s testimony can be found here: https://pulitzercenter.org/sites/default/files/june_23_1988_senate_hearing_1.pdf Graphs depicting global temperature anomalies can be found here: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/

Unofficially, the temperature fell to 82° at Phoenix's Sky Harbor Airport this morning at 6:04 am MST. Phoenix will likely approach or break its daily record of 115°, which was set in 1987. If the temperature reaches 116° or above, that would be the highest temperature so early in the season. The existing record earliest 116° or above temperature occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature topped out at 118°. The temperature again reached 118° on June 19, 2017. One factor that could inhibit the heat would be smoke from the Telegraph wildfire that could dim the sun if it drifts over the Phoenix area. Elsewhere, Casper could make a run at its earliest 100° reading on record today or tomorrow. That record was set on June 21, 2016 when the temperature reached a high of 100°.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with some periods of rain in the morning and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms can be strong. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.2° Newark: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.1° The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 14: Phoenix: 115°, 1987 (Forecast: 114° to 118°) Tucson: 111°, 1993 (Forecast: 110° to 112°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

No worries. It can happen.