donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… This morning, the temperature fell to 60° in New York City’s Central Park. That was the lowest July temperature since July 4 when the low was also 60° and the coolest temperature in the second half of July since July 24, 2007 when the mercury dipped to 58°. Overall, it was tied with 1891 and 1936 for the 4th lowest July 31 temperature. It will be mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.7° Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.2° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will prevail through the weekend. Tomorrow will be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City and rise only into the upper 70s in and around the City and possible lower 80s from central New Jersey southward. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +13.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.713 today. On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.435 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (1.5° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.8° Newark: 30-Year: 86.5°; 15-Year: 87.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.3° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Down south, many parts of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, Mobile, Greenville, and Pensacola, will likely see temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices of 110° or above today and tomorrow.

Through 7:41 pm, New York City had picked up 0.43" of rain, bringing July's total to 11.05". That is third highest July figure on record. In the wake of tonight's rainfall, fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will take hold and continue through the weekend. Saturday could be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +12.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.887 today. On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.434 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.299 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

I think we’’ probably fall short of both numbers, unless there are training thunderstorms.

Morning thoughts… It will mostly cloudy today with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.00” rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 82° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.9° Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.4° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. That will add to the 10.62" of rain that has already fallen at Central Park making July 2021 the 3rd wettest July on record. At present, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will go on to record 50.00" or more of precipitation this year. July will likely end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Temperatures Saturday morning will likely fall into the 50s outside New York City. Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070 today. On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will become partly to mostly sunny today. It will also be cooler than yesterday with high temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.0° Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 88.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.5° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 32 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 21 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 16 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 27 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 22 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 28 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Out West, record temperatures were reported in a number of locations. Records included: Billings: 106° (old record: 103°, 1935 and 1947) Casper: 100° (old record: 99°, 2008) Rapid City: 107° (old record: 104°, 1987) Meanwhile, from 4 pm - 5 pm MST, Tucson picked up 1.27" of rain. Through 5:20 pm MST, Tucson had picked up 1.29" of rain, bringing the monthly total to 7.08". That makes July 2021 the wettest July on record in Tucson. The old record was 6.80", which was set in 2017. July 2021 is also Tucson's second wettest month on record. A strong cold front will cross the region tonight the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. Showers and thundershowers are possible tonight and again on Thursday. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +10.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917 today. On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.186 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.199 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

Yesterday was 90. It appears that JFK fell short today.

Morning thoughts… Today will become mostly sunny and very warm. Some wildfire smoke could dim the sun. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. A few places could top out in the middle 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 94° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 86.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 88.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.6° The heat will break tomorrow and cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 90s in many parts of the region. Central Park fell short of 90°, but that was likely due to thick foliage. Based on a statistical regression equation based on nearby locations, Central Park would likely have hit 91° had it not been for the trees. 90° temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 97°; Boston: 93°; Bridgeport: 90°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City-JFK: 90°; New York City-LGA: 90°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 97°. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 26): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 16 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 31 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 20 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 16 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 26 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 21 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 27 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 15 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +14.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.194 today. On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

Yes. And it was warmer than Central Park.

If the sea breeze can be held off, there is a chance of that happening. That outcome is probably more likely today than it is tomorrow.

Morning thoughts… Today will become mostly sunny and very warm. Temperatures will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 93° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 88.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.7°; 15-Year: 88.7° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and hot.

A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +15.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today. On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.403 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.573 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (1.0° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Earlier this morning, New York City picked up 0.49”. That brought the July total to 9.70”. As a result 2021 moved past 1897 when 9.56” of rain fell to become the 3rd wettest July on record. Today will be variably cloudy and more humid. Showers and thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise to the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.8° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and very warm.

Tremendous downpour in Wyandotte last night.

A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +16.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685 today. On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.576 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.726 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal).

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 80s at the New York Botanical Garden.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and a bit warmer than yesterday. Humidity will still be fairly low and temperatures will rise to the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.9° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. A shower or thundershower is possible. In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce additional significant monsoon rainfall.

A period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop. Tomorrow will be partly sunny with temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. However, the heat will be creeping northward and the temperature could reach or exceed 90° in Baltimore and/or Washington, DC. Out West, the ongoing monsoon event is the big weather story. Through 8 pm, Phoenix had received 0.79" of rain, which exceeded the daily record of 0.41" from 2002. Even more impressive, the high temperature through 8 pm was 83°, which would be the coldest maximum temperature since July 31, 1964. In addition, several July hourly low temperature marks were set. In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +17.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.743 today. On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.738 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.805 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and comfortable. Humidity will be low and temperatures will rise to the lower and perhaps middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 84° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 88.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 89.0° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued pleasant. In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce significant monsoon rainfall, with the heaviest amounts falling through tomorrow morning. Both Phoenix and Tucson could pick up 0.50”-1.00” rain during this by the end of tomorrow. Already, Phoenix has received 0.21” of rain.

A period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop. In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +16.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.951 today. On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.812 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.718 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and refreshing. Humidity will be low and temperatures will rise to the lower and perhaps middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 83° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 89.0° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant. In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce significant monsoon rainfall, with the heaviest amounts falling between tomorrow night and Saturday morning. Both Phoenix and Tucson could pick up 0.50”-1.00” rain during this period.