donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Clouds will increase today, but it will be warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 67° A cool rain will develop tomorrow. Across parts of central and upstate New York and central and northern New England, especially the higher elevations, rain will turn to accumulating snow.

I suspect the focus will be the Berkshires with much less away from there. The ECMWF seems reasonable for these late-season elevation-favored events.

Sunshine returned and the temperature rebounded into the 60s today. Tomorrow could be even warmer with highs in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. A small piece of the cold air that has moved into the Northern Plains will move across the region late this week. At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region during late Thursday into Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England. The greatest accumulations should be confined to higher elevations in central New York State and central New England. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -25.60 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95. Over the last 50 days, the SOI has been negative on 58% of days. During the prior 50-day period, the SOI was negative on just 2% of days. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.445 today. On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.030(RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.890 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

I look forward to the photos. Then again, ISP picked up 8.5” during April 9-10, 1996.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Clouds will increase tomorrow.

At 7 pm CDT, it was 32° with light snow in Bismarck. An unseasonably cold air mass will continue to push into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region on Friday. At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region on Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England. The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -9.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.596 today. On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.025(RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.889 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

That looks fairly likely right now. Some of the guidance is really cold relative to the season for Friday. Some snow in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and across parts of New England is also a possibility.

Such air masses modify quite a bit before they reach this region. Even a direct shot of the cold air mass would not yield the same kind of result at this time of year, as the Yukon is still covered by snow, but most of the CONUS and southern Canada is not.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with some rain today. It will also be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 54° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s. The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included: Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014) Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986) Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986) Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966) Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986) Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986) Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020) Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986) That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly cloudy with a period of rain this morning. Clouds will linger during the afternoon and a shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see temperatures top out in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be much cooler with readings only in the lower and middle 50s.

Clouds broke for sunshine today and temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be more unsettled. A period of rain is likely tomorrow. There could also be some thunder. Tomorrow could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today. On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.076 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.983 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

It became partly sunny and quite warm this afternoon. The temperature topped out at 70° in New York City. Many more trees have exploded into full bloom in the New York Botanical Garden.

There may be some breaks in the clouds. I had a short period of sunshine.

Morning thoughts... At 7:48, a developing line of showers stretched from south of Breezy Point to just north of Bedford Hills. That line of showers will head eastward across Long Island and Connecticut over the next hour. Overall, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania, where there should be somewhat more sunshine, will likely see temperatures top out in the lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 66° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 72° A period of rain is likely tonight and tomorrow.

Today was partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 50s in much of the region. Meanwhile, across northern New England, upstate New York, and Quebec, near record and record warm temperatures were recorded. Today's high temperatures included: Bangor: 71° (old record: 68°, 1945) Burlington: 76° (tied record set in 1945) Caribou: 69° Concord: 72° Montreal: 76° (old record: 74°, 1945) Plattsburgh, NY: 73° (old record: 67°, 1981 and 2002) Quebec City: 64° (old record: 53°, 1993) Saranac Lake, NY: 72° Sept-Îles, QC: 56° (old record: 54°, 1961) Sherbrooke, QC: 73° (old record: 63°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 72° (old record: 54°, 2002) A warm front will try to push across the region this weekend. However, it will likely stall within 50 miles of New York City and Newark. As a result, New York City and Newark will likely see mainly cloudy skies this weekend, along with a period of rain. Sunday could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.223 today. On April 7 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The April 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.456 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

There are some areas that are partly to mostly sunny, but the satellite imagery and guidance aren’t very encouraging especially for later this afternoon and onward.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy. There could be a shower. A period of rain is likely during Saturday night or Sunday.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is possible across the region during the weekend. Sunday could be quite mild. A thundershower cannot be ruled out. An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +0.050 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.426 today. On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.454 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.352 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.7° (1.7° above normal).

It’s possible that the slowing thermohaline circulation might be having some impact.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 71° Tomorrow will be party to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A period of rain is likely during the weekend.

At the onset, some parts of the area saw some rain. Banding also played a role in the snowfall accumulations.

Tomorrow will be another mainly fair and mild day. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 60s across the region. Some areas could again reach 70°. Afterward, it will become somewhat cooler. Then, temperatures could be confined mainly to the 50s in much of the region. Based on the latest guidance, no significant precipitation is likely into the weekend. Some rain is possible this weekend followed by near seasonable temperatures. Up north, excessive warmth will develop in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible from tomorrow through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was -7.72 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.236 today. On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.353 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.422 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

The power of the sea breeze: 5 pm: JFK: 59 degrees Central Park: 72 degrees

During the April 1982 blizzard, New York City (JFK: 8.0”; LGA” 8.2”; NYC: 9.6”) did not see any of its major stations quite reach 10”. Outside the City, Newark picked up 12.8” and Islip received 16.0”. During the May 1977 snowfall, New York City saw a trace of snow. Some parts of New York State picked up 10” or more of snow e.g., Tannersville received 13.0” of snow.