donsutherland1

Temperatures rose mainly into the upper 80s and lower 90s today. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 7): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 12 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 17 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 13 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 6 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 14 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 13 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 11 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 10 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 18 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 14 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 14 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 11 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 11 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) In the South, Elsa brought daily record rainfall to parts of the region. As of 8 pm EDT, Jacksonville picked up 2.66" rain (old record: 2.07", 1963). In a portion of eastern Texas, even heavier rain was reported. Rockport Aransas County Airport received an all-time daily record 9.63" rainfall. Meanwhile, Banak, Norway (70.1°N) experienced its second 90° day in three days. Tomorrow and Friday could be unsettled as a frontal boundary sits near the region and Elsa through the region. Elsa could bring a general 1"-3" rainfall across the region. Out West, another above to much above normal regime is now developing. The height of this latest bout of heat could occur during the weekend into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 125°-130°. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. The record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017. In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +11.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.861 today. That is the most strongly positive AO reading in July since July 26, 2002 when the AO was +2.042. On July 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The July 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.530 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (0.2° above normal).

Attribution Study: Pacific Northwest Heat "Virtually Impossible" without Human-Induced Climate Change Excerpts: Using published peer-reviewed methods, we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the maximum temperatures in the region where most people have been affected by the heat (45–52 ºN, 119–123 ºW) including the cities of Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver (with well over 9 million people in their combined metropolitan areas)... Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum daily temperatures (TXx) as observed in the area 45–52 ºN, 119–123 ºW, was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change... There are two possible sources of this extreme jump in peak temperatures. The first is that this is a very low probability event, even in the current climate which already includes about 1.2°C of global warming — the statistical equivalent of really bad luck, albeit aggravated by climate change. The second option is that nonlinear interactions in the climate have substantially increased the probability of such extreme heat, much beyond the gradual increase in heat extremes that has been observed up to now. We need to investigate the second possibility further, although we note the climate models do not show it. All numbers below assume that the heatwave was a very low probability event that was not caused by new nonlinearities... Also, this heatwave was about 2°C hotter than it would have been if it had occurred at the beginning of the industrial revolution (when global mean temperatures were 1.2°C cooler than today). Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. An event like this – currently estimated to occur only once every 1000 years, would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in that future world with 2°C of global warming. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/ The full study can be found here.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly sunny and hot today. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 92° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 95° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.6° Tomorrow and Friday will likely see periods of rain and thunderstorms. Elsa could bring a period of heavy downpours to parts of the region on Friday.

Temperatures surged into the 90s today except right along the immediate coastline where a cooling sea breeze held temperatures in the 80s. Strong thunderstorms knocked the temperature down into the lower 70s during the evening, but the relief will be temporary. Tomorrow will again be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s. Clouds will increase later during the afternoon or evening. Thursday and Friday could be unsettled as a frontal boundary sits near the region and Elsa passes to the south and east of the region. Out West, another above to much above normal regime will likely set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of this latest bout of heat could occur during the weekend into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 125°-130°. In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +3.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.069 today. On July 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.485 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

The analysis is a multiple regression analysis. Independent variables are nearby sites. The dependent variable is Central Park. The timeframe is 1971-00, the last period for most of the timeframe was not impacted by excessive tree growth. Due to changing sun angles, I created three separate equations, one for June, one for July, and one for August. The coefficient of determination is well over .9 e.g., June was 0.955.

June 29 would have been 98 in Central Park based on the equation.

Morning thoughts... It will become partly sunny and hot today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 90s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 93° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 93° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.7°; 15-Year: 88.4° Tomorrow will be another hot day.

JFK: Probably NYC: A small probability. Based on a regression analysis tied to surrounding stations, Central Park would have hit 100F had it not been for the trees. It also would have 2 more 90F days so far than has been recorded.

It hasn’t. 99 is the highest on record.

Temperatures surged into the 80s today as warmer air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Many locations will see high temperatures in the 90s. Meanwhile across northern Scandinavia, exceptional heat toppled records. Three locations joined the "70-90" (70°N-90°F) club today. Banak, Norway reached 94°. Tanabru, Norway hit 92°. Utsjoki, Finland topped out at 91°. Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week. In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +0.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.505 today. On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.262 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.474 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Finally, on July 4, Arctic sea ice extent was 8.467 million square kilometers (JAXA). That was the lowest figure on record for July 4.

There has been a large increase in the number of such minimum temperatures: 1961-90: 2.3 days per year 1971-00: 2.6 days per year 1981-10: 4.0 days per year 1991-20: 6.1 days per year 2021: 8 days (through July 4) 10 Highest Annual Figures: 15, 2015 12, 2014 11, 2007, 2012, 2013 10, 2017 9, 1971, 1994, 2018 8, 1998, 2021*

From the Boise NWS Office: Record streak of 70F low temperatures https://twitter.com/NWSBoise/status/1412085747377606656?s=20

They are slightly more common at JFK than Central Park right now, but as SSTs warm in the long-term, that difference will probably disappear. Select statistics follow: Central Park: Number of <60F lows in July since 2000: 7 Most recent: July 3, 2021 Second most recent: July 8, 2009 1971-00: 0.9 days per year 1981-10: 0.7 days per year 1991-20: 0.4 days per year JFK Airport: Number of <60F lows in July since 2000: 9 Most recent: July 4, 2021 Second most recent: July 18, 2018 1971-00: 0.8 days per year 1981-10: 0.7 days per year 1991-20: 0.5 days per year P.S. The final low at Central Park was 60.

Morning thoughts... It will be mostly sunny and warmer today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today. Some upper 80s are possible. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 89° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9° Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.3° Tomorrow and Wednesday will be hot days.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rising into the 90s in parts of the area. Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +15.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.279 today. On July 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.266 (RMM). The July 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.270 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Weather summary for British Columbia issued by Environment Canada at 11:26 p.m. PDT Saturday 3 July 2021. Discussion. The following area set a daily maximum temperature record on July 3, 2021: Vernon Area (Vernon Auto) New record of 36.4 Old record of 35.6 set in 1906 Records in this area have been kept since 1900 Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were active during the period of record. Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/PSPC

61 in Central Park.

Yes, it was cool with a high of 69 before the extreme heat arrived.

Morning thoughts... It will be partly cloudy and warmer today. A shower is still possible. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 83° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.7° Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.1° The rise in temperatures will continue tomorrow and a brief period of hot weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

I don’t have daily records for Siberia, so I am not sure. This was a more intense episode of heat, but not as prolonged. Once the attribution study comes out, a comparison might be possible. In terms of intensity, though, this was the most severe outbreak of heat anywhere and at any time during the instrument record.

The temperature peaked at 66° in New York City's Central Park. The last time the temperature rose no higher than the 60s in Central Park during July occurred on July 25, 2013 when the temperature peaked at 68°. This was the coldest July high temperature since July 8, 2005 when the temperature also topped out at 66°. The daily mean temperature of 62.5° is the coldest July figure in Central Park since July 12, 1990 when the mean temperature was also 62.5° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region early next week. Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +19.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.143 today. On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.276 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.367 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

From the New York Botanical Garden this afternoon:

Breaks in the clouds at the New York Botanical Garden.

New York City’s (Central Park) < 60° Temperatures in July: 2000-2021

The Washington Post reported: Within the next week, researchers expect to publish a “rapid attribution” study that determines how climate change made the Northwest heat wave more likely. Yet precisely quantifying the role of climate change in the event has been difficult because the heat was just so extreme, said Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California who is contributing to the attribution effort. “It’s well beyond what straightforward statistical analysis would suggest. It’s well beyond what climate models suggest,” he continued. “But it happened.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/07/03/climate-change-heat-dome-death/