donsutherland1

A few showers are likely tonight into early tomorrow morning. Afterward, the clouds will give way to sunshine and temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some of the warmer spots could top out in the middle 60s. The week ahead looks to feature wet and unseasonably cool weather. Temperatures could be confined mainly to the 40s with occasional chilly rain. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -6.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.849 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.1° (5.4° above normal).

Despite the brief cold shot and recent rains, nature continues to advance deeper into spring at the New York Botanical Garden. Not even the 3/30 12z GGEM has frightened nature into slowing down the unfurling of its blossoms. Four photos from today:

A generally dry weekend lies ahead, although a shower cannot be ruled out tomorrow night or early Sunday morning. Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -11.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.636 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

JFK Airport's period of record began in July 1948.

Through 10 pm, storm total rainfall amounts include: Atlantic City: 1.64" Boston: 1.37" Bridgeport: 1.19" Islip: 1.59" New Haven: 1.13" New York City: 0.76" Newark: 0.52" Philadelphia: 0.40" Providence: 1.54" White Plains: 0.52" Rain will end late tonight or early tomorrow with a storm total 0.50" - 1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. the heaviest amounts will likely occur on Long Island. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -11.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.037 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

The last time NYC had an average last freeze in April was 1961-1990.

Showers early this evening will precede another bout of steady rain for tomorrow into early Friday. A general 0.50" - 1.50" appears likely. the heaviest amounts will likely occur on Long Island. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -6.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.542 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (5.2° above normal).

Another storm will bring rain to the region from tomorrow night into at least late Thursday. A general 0.50" - 1.50" appears likely. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -5.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.560 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

In his A Winter Season, James Fisher wrote December in Edinburgh in the early 19th century: In midst of dark December's howling blast, out from his quarters in the frigid zone comes surly Winter, in his car of iron, drawn on by furious, foaming, snow-white steeds, escorted by his angry northern band; which raves, and roars, and rages all around despoiling Nature of her every charm; and now sits down to storm her empire all… Falling rapidly, drifting on heaps, are the flakes of now, while the boisterous wind, roaring furiously, disbranches the trees, and threatens to overturn every habitation of man. To heighten the terrific scene... what a flash of lightning, followed by a tremendously loud clap of thunder! A lot of that could have applied to December in New York City during its first 30 years of record (1869-1898). December is now increasingly taking on the character of late November. The changes have been so dramatic that January today (1995-2024) is almost identical to what December was like during New York City’s first 30 years of recordkeeping.

The recent chill has now moderated. However, additional rain is likely late in the week. At present, a general 0.50" - 1.50" appears likely. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +1.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.180 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (5.2° above normal).

March 18-24, 2024 was generally cool and very wet in the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England areas.

This morning the temperature fell to 31° in New York City. It is possible that this morning will wind up becoming New York City's last freeze of the 2023-24 season. The normal last freeze occurs on March 29th. Moderation lies ahead, even as additional rain is likely late in the week. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -0.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.282 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

Recent freezes and yesterday's massive rainstorm decimated the early Magnolia blossoms, stripped the Japanese Apricot trees of all their blossoms, and brought down many of the early cherry blossoms at the New York Botanical Garden. Nevertheless, nature continues to advance deeper into spring. The variety and number of blossoms continues to increase.

The normal last freeze in New York City is March 29th. Today or tomorrow could be the last freeze of the season if the current guidance holds up.

Week ahead numbers. With snowfall prospects diminishing, these will be the last such numbers until next winter.

Yes. Coldest has not.

Today’s heavy rain produced flooding.

Much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region and parts of southern New England saw daily record rainfall today. Daily records through 6 pm included: Allentown: 1.73" (old record: 1.12", 2005) Atlantic City: 2.69" (old record: 1.59", 2005) Binghamton: 1.03" (old record: 0.74", 1968) Bridgeport: 3.28" (old record: 1.28", 2020) Hartford: 1.96" (old record: 1.14", 2020) Islip: 2.22" (old record: 1.32", 2020) New York City-Central Park: 3.66" (old record: 1.60", 1929) ***3rd highest daily rainfall in March*** New York City-JFK Airport: 3.13" (old record: 1.28", 2020) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.47" (old record: 1.44", 2020) Newark: 2.97" (old record: 1.52", 1961) Philadelphia: 3.09" (old record: 1.36", 2005) Poughkeepsie: 2.05" (old record: 0.83", 1944) Trenton: 2.91" (old record: 1.62", 1961) White Plains: 3.00" (old record: 1.20", 2001) Wilmington, DE: 2.81" (old record: 2.05", 1903) Philadelphia's daily rainfall also set a new record for highest daily rainfall for any day in March. The previous record of 2.79" was set on March 15, 1912. As a result of today's rainfall, March 2024 now ranks among the 10 wettest Marches on record in New York City. In addition, 66% of the top 10 wettest months have occurred since 2000, even as the 2000s account for just 16% of months in New York City's climate record. Top 10 wettest and warmest months are both disproportionately represented by the 2000s. In the wake of today's storm, tomorrow will be blustery and unseasonably cold. Moderation will follow. The closing days of March could turn warmer. However, the kind of warmth that occurred earlier in March is unlikely. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +3.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.097 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.2° (5.5° above normal).

Central Park picked up 0.90” of rain in the past hour, which is a near record hourly amount for March. The March record is 1.20”, which was set on March 23, 1929. No other March day has received 1” or more hourly rainfall.

March 2024 has now moved into the top 10 wettest Marches on record. A disproportionate share of top 10 wettest months have occurred since 2000. The 2000-2024 period accounts for 16% of all months in NYC's climate record.

Philadelphia has now picked up 2.80" of rain today. That makes March 23, 2024 Philadelphia's wettest March day on record. The old record of 2.79 was set on March 15, 1912. March records go back to 1872.

A significant rainstorm will drench the region tomorrow. Much of the region will set daily rainfall records for March 23rd, as a storm brings a windswept 2.00"-4.00" of rain with locally higher amounts to the region. Significant coastal flooding at high tide, along with beach erosion is likely. Following the rainstorm, March 2024 will rank among the 10 wettest Marches on record in New York City. In addition, 66% of the top 10 wettest months will have occurred since 2000, even as the 2000s account for just 16% of months in New York City's climate record. Top 10 wettest and warmest months are both disproportionately represented by the 2000s. Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warmer. However, the kind of warmth that occurred earlier in March is unlikely. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +7.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.698 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.1° (5.4° above normal).

After a brisk day, another cold night lies ahead. The low temperature will again fall below freezing tomorrow morning in New York City. Readings in the 20s are very likely outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. There is even a chance that the temperature could dip just below 30° in New York City. A storm will likely bring a windswept 1.50"-3.00" of rain with locally higher amounts during the weekend. Significant coastal flooding at high tide, along with beach erosion is likely. Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warmer. However, the kind of warmth that occurred earlier in March is unlikely. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +6.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.526 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

Boston has never had two consecutive seasons with less than 20" of snow. The lowest two season average was 17.4" (1979-80 and 1980-81).