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A cold front will move across the region tomorrow with showers and thundershowers. It will bring a decisive but short-lived end to this weekend's heat. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +27.55 today. The old daily record was +25.02, which was set in 2009. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.646 today. On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.699 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.1° (0.9° below normal).

Temperatures reached the 90s in many parts of the region with Newark topping out at 96° this afternoon. Tomorrow will be another hot day. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. A few middle 90s are possible. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday. In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 has now moved into the region. Portland could see the thermometer make a run at 100° tomorrow. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +14.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.700 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.467 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be another hot day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Some of the hotter spots could top out in the middle 90s. A cold front will likely move across the region on Monday. In the Pacific Northwest, the first significant heat of summer 2022 is likely this weekend. On Sunday, the mercury in Portland could make a run at 100°. However, that will be far from the record, as it coincides with the start of the hottest three-day period of last summer's historic heatwave. The daily record for Sunday is 108°. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +4.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.213 today. On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.477 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.9° (1.1° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will become partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 85° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2° Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0°

Warmer air will begin to return to the region tomorrow. A very warm weekend lies ahead. Down south more high temperature records were matched or beaten. Record highs included: Galveston: 96° (old record: 95°, 1875 and 1995) Jacksonville: 100° (old record: 99°, 1944, 1981 and 1998) Macon: 104° (old record: 101°, 1944, 1981 and 1988) Mobile: 102° (old record: 101°, 2009) Savannah: 102° (tied record set in 1981) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -1.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.178 today. On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.205 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.200 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.0° below normal).

Climate Central released the Climate Shift Index, which provides daily estimates of how climate change is impacting air temperature. It puts a number on the influence of climate change on daily high and low temperatures for a period ranging from yesterday to two days into the future. A short video introducing the tool can be found here: https://www.climatecentral.org/realtime-fingerprints The tool can be found here: https://www.climatecentral.org/tools/climate-shift-index

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still cool for the season. A few locations could pick up some rain. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 74° Warmer air will begin to return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 81.9° Newark: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.7°

Under gray skies and occasional light rain and drizzle, the temperature peaked at 67° in New York City. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through tomorrow before warmer air returns. Down south, blazing heat melted high temperature records. Daily records included: Atlanta: 98° (tied record set in 1964) Charlotte: 101° (old record: 100°, 2015) Columbia, SC: 101° (tied record set in 1939 and tied in 1956 and 1988) Macon, GA: 105° (old record: 101°, 1925) Memphis: 102° (old record: 100°, 1988) Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1881 and 2009) Nashville: 101° (old record: 1944 and 1988) New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 2009) Raleigh: 100° (tied record set in 1981) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +13.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.594 today. On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.201 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.714 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.2° (0.8° below normal).

Yesterday’s low temperature of 86 at Galveston was that city’s earliest such minimum temperature on record. The previous mark was set on August 8, 2019.

Yesterday’s low temperature of 86 at Galveston was that city’s earliest such minimum temperature on record. The previous mark was set on August 8, 2019.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and very cool for the season. There will be showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region except upper 70s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 79° The cool temperatures will persist through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.6° Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 85.4°

Interesting paper. It provides yet more evidence of the anthropogenic role that is driving an increase in marine heatwaves.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through Thursday before warmer air returns. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +18.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.404 today. On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.717 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.868 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be increasingly cloudy somewhat cooler than normal. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 82° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. It will be unreasonably cool. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.4°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2°

Cooler air will again push into the region. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until after midweek before warmer air returns. Meanwhile, parts of the North Central United States and South saw record heat. Records included: Duluth: 93° (old record: 88°, 1995) Galveston: 97° (old record: 94°, 1875 and 1933) Houston: 102° (old record: 101°, 1902) Minneapolis-St. Paul: 100° (old record: 98°, 1933) During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +22.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.998 today. On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.870 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.980 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 81° Tomorrow will see a return of cooler air. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.1°; 15-Year: 81.0° Newark: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Despite deep blue skies and brilliant sunshine, temperatures only reached the lower and middle 70s in much of the area. Tomorrow will be another very cool day before temperatures briefly warm up on Tuesday. The unseasonably cool weather will continue through midweek before warmer air returns. Meanwhile, record heat continued to affect parts of the Plains States and the South. Records included: Bismarck: 100° (old record: 97°, 1933, 1988 and 1989) Fargo: 101° (tied record set in 1933) Galveston: 97° (old record: 95°, 1875) Grand Forks, ND: 100° (old record: 95°, 1933) In Europe, the historic early-season heat shifted eastward toppling records. High temperatures included: Beaucouze, France: 101° Beznau, Switzerland: 98° Berlin: 100° Bordeaux, France: 101° Cognac, France: 101° Cottbus, Germany: 103° Doksany, Czech Republic: 102° Dresden: 100° Geneva: 96° Husinec, Czech Republic: 102° Le Mans, France: 100° Leipzig, Germany: 99° Lindenberg, Germany: 100° Pila, Poland: 99° Potsdam, Germany: 99° Slubice, Poland: 101° Strasbourg, France: 100° During June 16-18, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +20.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.903 today. On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.979 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.065 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.7° (0.3° below normal).

Morning thoughts… Today started out with near record and record cold. At Binghamton, the temperature fell to 43°, which set a new record low for the date. The old record of 44° was set in 1956. It will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 76° Tomorrow will see a continuation of the cool weather. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.8°; 15-Year: 80.7° Newark: 30-Year: 83.1°; 15-Year: 83.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Under a partly cloudy to mainly clear skies, temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s across much of the region. Some locations could see the mercury dip below 50°. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cool. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek next week before warmer air returns. Meanwhile, near record and record heat prevailed in parts of the Gulf Coast Region. High temperatures included: Jackson: 97° Mobile: 101° (old record: 100°, 1913, 1944 and 1953) Montgomery, AL: 98° New Orleans: 96° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2011) Pensacola: 100° (tied record set in 1953) Tallahassee: 99° Tampa: 98° (old record: 96°, 1975, 1998, and 2009) Across the Atlantic Ocean, a record early-season heatwave continued to scorch parts of western Europe. High temperatures included: Basel, Switzerland: 96° Biarritz, France: 109° Biscarosse, France: 107° Cap Ferret, France: 107° Cognac, France: 104° Lyon, France: 101° Offenbach-Wetterpark, Germany: 97° Paris: 98° Tours, France: 102° During June 16-18, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.883 today. On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.071 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.888 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.0° (normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow and Monday will see a continuation of the cool weather. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.6°; 15-Year: 80.4° Newark: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.3°

A piece of the air mass responsible for record-breaking heat in the Plains States and Great Lakes Region moved across the Middle Atlantic region today. Near record and record high temperatures in the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Region included: Atlantic City: 93° Baltimore: 96° (tied record set in 1939) Bridgeport: 90° Charlotte: 98° Columbia, SC: 100° Islip: 90° (old record: 88°, 2000) Lynchburg: 96° (tied record set in 1944) New York City-JFK: 94° New York City-LGA: 92° Newark: 95° Norfolk: 97° (tied record set in 1891 and tied in 1945) Philadelphia: 96° Raleigh: 98° Richmond: 97° Sterling, VA: 96° (old record: 92°, 1994) Washington, DC: 99° (old record: 97°, 2014) Wilmington, DE: 95° Wilmington, NC: 96° Following today's brief burst of heat, much cooler air will return for the weekend. The unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek next week before warmer air returns. Across the Atlantic Ocean, a record early-season heatwave scorched parts of western Europe. High temperatures included: Andujar, Spain: 112° Carcassonne, France: 105° Cognac, France: 102° London: 91° Nimes, France: 105° Paris: 95° The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +23.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.342 today. On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.893 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.594 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.2° (0.2° above normal).

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Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 95° Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.3°; 15-Year: 80.1° Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.0°

Tomorrow will be a very warm day with readings reaching the upper 80s in New York City and perhaps lower 90s in Newark and Philadelphia. Much cooler air will return for the weekend. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +16.52 today. The SOI was unchanged from yesterday. The last time that happened was December 24-25, 2020. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.056 today. On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.587 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.338 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.2° (0.2° above normal).