donsutherland1

Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy, will continue through at least the first half of tonight. Additional flooding is possible in parts of New Jersey and southeastern New York State. Afterward, another spell of heat will develop. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach 100° at the height of the heatwave. The temperature reached 99° at London's Heathrow Airport today and 101° at Standon Downham. Jersey reached 100° for the first time on record. The national UK record will likely be broken tomorrow. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record. In France, Biscarosse reached a scorching 109°. Overall, 25 locations set new all-time high temperature records. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around July 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -6.40. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.035 today. On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.962 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.987 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.6° (2.1° above normal).

The air base at Brize Norton also suffered infrastructure damage from the heat.

A great link for monitoring the heat in the UK is https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Some of thunderstorms could be severe. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 85° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 91° Hot weather will arrive tomorrow and continue through at least the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Record dewpoints were also reported in Manitoba, including Winnipeg.

Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy, are likely tonight through tomorrow. Afterward, another spell of heat will develop. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer. The hottest temperatures will likely be west of New York City in adjacent New Jersey where temperatures could peak in the upper 90s and perhaps reach 100° at the height of the heatwave. Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that has continued to topple daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of Andorra, France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. Already, Hawarden reached 91° and London (Heathrow Airport) hit 87° today. The national UK record could be challenged or broken tomorrow and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was -2.77. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.136 today. On July 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.987 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.057 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 87° Tomorrow will see showers and thunderstorms, some of which can be heavy. Afterward, heat will return to the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

During the most recent hour, Washington, DC's Reagan National Airport picked up 1.09" of rain. That was the fourth such hourly amount this year. Both 2020 and 2021 had three hours with rainfall amounts of 1.00" or more. The last time there were four such hourly amounts was in 1970. The record of six hourly amounts was set in 1952. Earlier today, New York City also picked up hourly rainfall of 1.00" or more. The last time both cities saw such rainfall amounts on the same date was July 17, 2018. Hourly data goes back to 1948.

A small but intense thunderstorm dumped 1.10" of rain on New York City this afternoon with 1.02" falling within an hour. That was this year's first hourly rainfall of 1.00" or more. During 1889-1999, New York City saw one such rainfall about once every 26.1 months. Since 2000, New York City has experienced such a rainfall once every 8.9 months. July accounts for 30% of such cases. August is second with 22% of such cases. Tomorrow will be a similar day. It will be variably cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Another spell of heat is likely starting early next week. The potential exists for the longest heatwave so far this summer. Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that has continued to topple daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of Andorra, France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. The national UK record could be challenged or broken on Monday and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +3.32. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.226 today. On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.054 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.778 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (1.8° above normal).

New York City (Central Park) has picked up 1.02" of rain so far this hour. The last time that happened was September 1, 2021 during the Ida-related floods. July accounts for 30% of New York City's 1" or above hourly rainfalls.

With potential record heat likely in the UK, the climate change denial community is desperately seeking to deflect from the reality of the outcome. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1548120815962427392?s=20&t=ry37eyHIu5gGsAIXiSGx1Q In fact, climate scientists forecast that the kind of heat that will descend on the UK will be increasingly likely. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16834-0 No such forecast was made by those trying to weaponize forecasts against climate scientists.

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and somewhat cooler. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 87° More heat could return to the region early next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Temperatures will continue to average near or above normal through at least the weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week. Before then some rain is possible from scattered thunderstorms from Sunday night into Tuesday. Across the Atlantic, the extreme heat that was been toppling daily, monthly and some all-time records in parts of France, Spain, and Italy will spread into the United Kingdom. The national UK record could be challenged or broken on Monday and/or Tuesday. The possibility exists that the UK could see its first 40°C (104°F) temperature on record. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up among the warmer than normal cases. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +6.77. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.067 today. On July 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.777 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.527 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.1° (1.6° above normal).

It reveals that those blogging there have no understanding of climate or climate change.

Through the first two weeks of July, Phoenix has a summer mean temperature of 95.6°. That ranks as the 4th hottest temperature on record for the period from June 1 through July 14 going back to 1896. For all of summer, 11/12 (92%) of summers with a mean temperature of 94.5° or above have occurred since 2000 and half have occurred since 2010. Five of the last seven summers met or exceeded the 94.5° average.

Parts of Europe are undergoing aridification, which produces a hotter and drier climate. In addition, quasi-resonance amplification events connected to changes in the Arctic are leading to more prolonged and more impressive heat domes.

A relevant paper concerning the increasing incidence of extreme heat in the UK: Abstract: As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16834-0

For the first time, the UK Met Office has forecast a high temperature of 40C (104F) in the UK. In what is a best practice that should be widely followed, the forecast discussion links the forthcoming event to climate change. That part of the discussion is below. Is this due to climate change?  “We hoped we wouldn’t get to this situation but for the first time ever we are forecasting greater than 40°C in the UK. “Climate attribution scientist at the Met Office, Dr Nikos Christidis, said “In a recent study we found that the likelihood of extremely hot days in the UK has been increasing and will continue to do so during the course of the century, with the most extreme temperatures expected to be observed in the southeast of England. “Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing, and, even with current pledges on emissions reductions, such extremes could be taking place every 15 years in the climate of 2100.” A recent Met Office study found that summers which see days above 40°C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, even with current pledges on emissions reductions this can decrease to 15 years by 2100. Extreme heat events do occur within natural climate variation due to changes in global weather patterns. However, the increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of these events over recent decades is clearly linked to the observed warming of the planet and can be attributed to human activity. The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence. The likelihood of exceeding 40°C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing Whilst a 1°C background temperature increase may not seem significant, the resulting increase in the severity of extreme heat events is already evident in the observed record. This has widespread and significant impacts. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/red-extreme-heat-warning Updates: The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom Attribution Study: June 2022 European Heatwave 40°C reached in the United Kingdom Attribution Study: July 2019 European Heatwave Map of the UK's July 19, 2022 High Temperatures Central England Daily Mean Temperature

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be a bit cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

At Central Park, the mercury reached 90°. That was the third consecutive such day there, marking the year's first heatwave. Temperatures will continue to average near or above normal through at least the coming weekend. Another spell of heat is possible next week. During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +10.09. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.149 today. On July 12 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.525 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.521 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (1.4° above normal).

Through July 14th, nearly 30% of Galveston’s record high minimum temperatures have been tied or broken during 2020-2022. For record high maximums, nearly 23% of records have been tied or broken during 2020-2022. Records go back to May 1874.

Central Park has its first heatwave of the year.

There's a lot of variability for La Nina cases. 1998-99 had low snowfall and widespread warmth. 2016-17 had above normal snowfall. We're also poised to have a third consecutive La Nina winter, so there are few, if any, relevant cases. Whether or not blocking develops and is sustained will be critical to snowfall prospects.

The seasonal forecast updated on July 1. It updates once per month.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be very warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°