donsutherland1

The heatwave that sent temperatures into the upper 90s into southern New England is now concluding. High temperatures today included: Allentown: 95° Atlantic City: 98° Baltimore: 97° Boston: 98° Bridgeport: 94° Concord: 91° Hartford: 95° Islip: 94° Manchester: 94° New York City-JFK: 93° New York City-LGA: 98° New York City-NYC: 97° Newark: 101° Philadelphia: 98° Poughkeepsie: 94° Providence: 98° Washington, DC: 97° Wilmington, DE: 97° Cooler air will begin to arrive overnight. Even cooler air will move into the region late in the week with the weekend featuring unseasonably cool weather. Outside of the Philadelphia and New York City urban areas, the potential exists for low temperatures to fall into the 50s at some locations. Across the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the UK, including London, could see another round of withering heat. Temperatures could top out near or above 95° on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around August 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was -0.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.675 today. On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.128 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.270 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (1.2° above normal).

Correct regarding 90- and 95-degree days.

That's an old map.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and hot. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 93° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 96° It will turn cooler starting tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.5° Newark: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 86.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 86.9°

Probably.

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures again rose into the 90s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. A few locations experienced cooling thundershowers. High temperatures included: Albany: 95° (tied record set in 1909 and tied in 1983) Allentown: 94° Atlantic City: 92° Baltimore: 94° Boston: 98° (old record: 96°, 1983) Bridgeport: 90° Concord: 96° (old record: 95°, 1870 and 2001) Hartford: 94° Manchester, NH: 99° (old record: 95°, 1949) New York City: 93° Newark: 99° Philadelphia: 97° Portland: 95° (tied record set in 1949) Poughkeepsie: 94° Providence: 95° (tied record set in 1909) Scranton: 94° (tied record set in 1918 and tied in 1930 and 2001) Washington, DC: 93° Wilmington, DE: 94° Worcester: 92° Boston recorded its 5th consecutive 95° day. That is tied for the second longest such streak with July 2-6, 1911. Tomorrow will see the conclusion of the current round of hot weather. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in many parts of the region. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek. The weekend could feature unseasonably cool weather. Outside of the Philadelphia and New York City urban areas, the potential exists for low temperatures to fall into the 50s at some locations. Across the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the UK, including London, could see another round of withering heat. Temperatures could top out near or above 95° on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around August 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +4.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.741 today. On August 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.270 (RMM). The August 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.211 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.4° (1.3° above normal).

Yes. 1944 is first place. 1911 and 2022 share second place.

As of 1 PM EDT, Boston has a high temperature of 97. That breaks the daily record of 96 from 1983. It is also Boston’s 5th consecutive 95 or above reading, which is tied for second place with July 2-6, 1911.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and hot. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 97° Philadelphia: 96° Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7° Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0°

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures again rose into the 90s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Some places experienced cooling thundershowers. High temperatures included: Albany: 91° Allentown: 92° Atlantic City: 92° Baltimore: 93° Bangor: 93° Boston: 98° (tied record set in 1924) Bridgeport: 91° Burlington: 92° Caribou: 89° (tied record set in 1947 and tied in 2001) Concord: 93° Hartford: 96° Manchester, NH: 96° (tied record set in 2001) New York City: 92° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 94° Portland: 96° (old record: 93°, 2001 and 2018) Providence: 95° (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 2001) Poughkeepsie: 97° (tied record set in 2001) Washington, DC: 90° Wilmington, DE: 93° Worcester: 93° Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of hot weather. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in many parts of the region. Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek. The weekend could get off to a cool start. Across the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the UK, including London, could see another round of withering heat. Temperatures could top out near or above 95° on Thursday and Friday. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +14.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.051 today. On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.207 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.910 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (1.4° above normal).

Through August 6th, New York City's highest daily precipitation is 1.85". If that holds, that would be the lowest figure since 2019 when the maximum daily amount was 1.83". Since New York City moved into a much wetter regime beginning in 1971, the maximum figure has generally been increasing. With potential tropical cyclone-enhanced moisture later this summer into the fall (assuming the EPS seasonal map's risk assessment is reasonably on course), the 1.85" figure could be washed away. Below is a chart showing the 30-year moving average for highest daily precipitation since 1900.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 94° Cooler air will begin to arrive by midweek. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.8° Newark: 30-Year: 85.8°; 15-Year: 86.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2°

The early August heat rolled into the first weekend of the month. Parts of southern New England saw the highest temperatures. High temperatures included: Albany: 93° Boston: 97° (tied record set in 1931) Burlington: 93° Concord: 93° Hartford: 95° (tied record set in 1918 and 1931) Manchester, NH: 97° (old record: 95°, 2018) New York City: 92° Newark: 96° Philadelphia: 91° Providence: 95° Worcester: 93° (tied record set in 1906) Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Temperatures will generally top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +19.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.592 today. On August 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.904 (RMM). The August 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.816 (RMM).

Today is all but certain to be Phoenix's 50th day with a minimum temperature of 80° or above. There has been a dramatic increase in the number of such days each year on account of a combination of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect and climate change. The 30-year moving average for such days is below.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 90° The very warm weather will continue through the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.3°

Parts of the region will see showers and thunderstorms overnight. Afterward, a warm weekend lies ahead with temperatures generally rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +17.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.592 today. On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.815 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.043 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and very warm. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 92° The very warm weather will continue through the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5°

Under bright sunshine and a hot breeze, temperatures soared into the 90s across much of the region. Parts of the region saw temperatures set new records. High temperatures included: Albany: 99° (old record: 98°, 1944 and 1955) Allentown: 94° Baltimore: 99° Boston: 98° (old record: 96°, 1928) Bridgeport: 90° Hartford: 96° (tied record set in 1928 and tied in 1944) Islip: 90° New York City-JFK: 91° New York City-LGA: 94° New York City-NYC: 93° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 97° Poughkeepsie: 99° (old record: 98°, 1944) Providence: 95° Scranton: 98° (tied record set in 1930) Washington, DC: 95° Wilmington, DE: 95° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" of rain is likely with locally higher amounts. Afterward, a warm weekend lies ahead. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +15.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.122 today. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.044 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 93° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 97° Very warm to occasionally hot weather will continue into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Newark: 30-Year: 86.0°; 15-Year: 87.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6°

Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will see temperatures peak. Temperatures will rise well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +25.49 (old record: +25.06, 1998). The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.168 today. On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.931 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.680 (RMM).

During 1961-1990, about one-in-five days saw the temperature reach or exceed 90 in Galveston. Now, approximately seven-in-ten reach 90 or above. There has been a dramatic shift in the distribution of high temperatures in August.

The 1991-20 normal is up 0.7 degrees from the previous baseline. The monsoonal cooling knocked down the overall monthly mean. The first 22 and 23 days were actually the hottest such periods on record for July.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 94° Very warm to occasionally hot weather will continue into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 87.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.8°

Galveston will very likely see summer 2022 come out with a mean temperature of 86.0° or above in Galveston. A record warm summer remains on the table. The only summers that warm were: 2011: 87.3° 2020: 86.1° Galveston has been experiencing warming summers. Since 1980, 86% of summers were warmer than the 30-year moving average. Since 2000, that figure has increased further to 91%.

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. Tomorrow will be another very warm day with similar temperatures. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with temperatures rising well into the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the fall. The SOI was +25.79 (old record: +20.20, 1998). The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.195 today. On July 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The July 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.661 (RMM).