donsutherland1

Richard, Would you mind if I use some images from your videos on my winter storms photos site. Credit would be noted. Let me know.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and cold. Parts of the region could see snow flurries and show showers from late afternoon into the evening. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 44° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.2° Newark: 30-Year: 54.0°; 15-Year: 54.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.0°

Generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week before it turns briefly milder. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and blustery. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Afterward, the season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are again possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.118 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.755 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.752 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.5° (1.5° above normal).

Never enough.

Morning thoughts… It will be sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 46° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 54.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.3°; 15-Year: 55.4°

Overnight parts of the Northeast saw some snow. Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 16 4 pm include: Albany: 1.5" (0.5" above normal) Binghamton: 2.6" (0.8" below normal) Caribou: 7.6" (1.9" above normal) Buffalo: 0.3" (3.3" below normal) ***a significant lake effect snow event will occur through Saturday*** Burlington: 3.0" (0.8" above normal) Scranton: 1.2" (0.8" below normal) In the wake of the storm that brought some frozen precipitation to the distant New York City suburbs, the generally colder than normal weather will continue through at least early next week. The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +19.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.305 today. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.754 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.511 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

Yes, but some areas see a stronger push of warmth. At 10 am, it was 62 at Montauk and 52 at Groton. Not far west of there, readings were in the 40s.

Update: 11/16/2022 AO: +0.305 Strong model consensus for a period of Atlantic blocking now exists.

Occasionally, there's a very strong surge of warmth to the east of the low pressure. That's really impressive.

Morning thoughts… Clouds will break during the late morning or afternoon and the remainder of the day will be partly sunny. It will be briefly milder. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7°

Over the past 20 minutes, light snow has transitioned to light rain at Poughkeepsie. Meanwhile, a cold rain was continuing to fall in Newark and New York City. A storm will bring a cold rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Albany could pick up 1"-3". Following the storm,temperatures will remain below normal. The season's coldest air so far could arrive during the weekend. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the weekend. Beyond that, the cold will continue into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +15.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.415 today. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.510 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.557 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.7° (1.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. A cold rain will overspread the region late in the day or during the evening. Some interior sections could see a brief period of snow or sleet at the onset of the precipitation. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 48° Philadelphia: 48° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.2° Newark: 30-Year: 55.1°; 15-Year: 55.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.1°; 15-Year: 56.1°

A prolonged period of below normal temperatures has now set in. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the week. A storm will likely bring a cold rain to the region tomorrow night into Wednesday. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong (with the AO staying mainly above -1.000). Its duration remains uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +0.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.336 today. On November 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.559 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.6° (1.6° above normal).

The Copernicus Program has issued the multi-ensemble winter forecast. It is very similar to last year's forecast (likely the result of La Niña). Last year's forecast and outcome are provided, along with this year's forecast.

We’ll probably have to wait for the weekend for NYC’s first freeze.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny and very cool today. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 48° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6° Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4°

Overnight, a much colder air mass began moving into the region. Now, a prolonged period of below normal temperatures lies ahead. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season tomorrow morning at LaGuardia Airport (will be the 5th latest first occurrence) and Central Park (will be the 2nd latest first occurrence). Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the week. In addition, a storm will likely bring a cold rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong (with the AO staying mainly above -1.000). Its duration remains uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -7.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.406 today. On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.721 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.857 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.8° (1.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Early rain will give way to breaking clouds. It will become partly sunny and much cooler today. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 54.9° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 56.8°

Big changes are now evolving in the hemispheric weather pattern. A historic EPO block is forecast to develop. During November 15-16, the EPO is forecast to reach its lowest values on record. The extreme EPO block will set the stage for an extended period of colder than normal temperatures bringing an abrupt end to the exceptional warmth that has prevailed through the first 12 days of the month. The remnants of Hurricane Nicole tracked well to the north and west of the region today. Nicole's remnants swept unusually warm air northward producing near record and record warmth. Record high temperatures included: Albany: 71° (old record: 68°, 1909) Atlantic City: 72° (tied record set in 1964) Bangor: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012 and 2020) Binghamton: 66° (old record: 65°, 1964) Boston: 76° (tied record set in 1909) Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 67°, 2021) Burlington: 71° (old record: 70°, 2012) Houlton: 67° (old record: 63°, 2020) Islip: 72° (old record: 67°, 2014) Manchester: 74° (old record: 66°, 2012 and 2020) Nantucket: 69° (old record: 68°, 2014) New Haven: 75° (old record: 68°, 2021) New York City-JFK: 72° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021) New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021) Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938) Poughkeepsie: 72° (old record: 69°, 1964) Portland: 73° (old record: 66°, 1909) Westfield: 68° (old record: 65°, 2012 and 2014) Westhampton: 73° (old record: 66°, 2012) White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021) Wilmington, DE: 72° (teid record set in 1992) Following today's near record and record warmth in much of the area, numerous locations tied or extended their records for most 70° days in November. Records include: Albany: 4 days (tied record set in 1931 and tied in 2020) Atlantic City: 7 days (tied record set in 1953 and tied in 2020) Boston: 6 days (tied record set in 1927 and tied in 1990 and 2020) Bridgeport: 5 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) Caribou: 2 days (old record: 1 day, 2020) Hartford: 8 days (old record: 7 days, 1975 and 2020) Islip: 6 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) Manchester, NH: 7 days (tied record set in 2020) Nantucket: 3 days (old record: 2 days, 1971 and 1975) New Haven: 6 days (old record: 4 days, 1975) New York City-JFK: 6 days (old record: 5 days, 1975) Newark: 9 days (old record: 7 days, 1975 and 2020) Philadelphia: 10 days (old record: 9 days, 1975) Portland: 3 days (tied record set in 1953 and tied in 2020) Poughkeepsie: 7 days (old record: 6 days, 1975 and 2020) Providence: 7 days (old record: 6 days, 2020) Westfield, MA: 7 days (tied record set in 2020) Some daily rainfall records were set, as well. Locations included: Bangor: 1.15" (old record: 1.06", 1947) Caribou: 1.71" (old record: 1.20", 1946) November's "summer fling" is now coming to a decisive end. Much colder air will pour into the region tonight. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season tomorrow night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport (will be the 5th latest first occurrence) and Central Park (will tie 1946 as the 2nd latest first occurrence). Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through next week. In addition, a storm could bring a cold rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some interior sections could see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong. Its duration, should it develop, remains uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.409 today. On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.861 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.0° (2.0° above normal).

Some scenes from what could be November 2022's last exceptionally warm day.

JFK has now set a record for most 70-degree days in November.

I believe JFK is tied with its record. I will post them this evening.

Morning thoughts… The sun will return. It will be unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 70° Much colder air will press into the region tonight setting up an extended period with below normal temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.2° Newark: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.2°; 15-Year: 57.1°

Overnight, a surge of warmth east of Nicole's remnants sent the mercury soaring into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Numerous records were tied or broken: Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 67°, 2021) Islip: 68° (old record: 67°, 2014) New Haven: 73° (old record: 68°, 2021) New York City-JFK: 67° (old record: 66°, 2014 and 2021) New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 2020 and tied in 2021) Newark: 74° (tied record set in 1938) Westhampton: 68° (old record: 66°, 2012) White Plains: 68° (old record: 65°, 2021)