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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    Through 10:30 pm, daily rainfall totals include: Atlantic City: 2.53" (old record: 1.36", 1961) Islip: 0.02" New York City-JFK: 0.17" New York City-LGA: 0.07" New York City-NYC: Trace Newark: 0.51" Philadelphia: 1.81" (old record: 1.80", 2015)
  2. donsutherland1
    0.89” yesterday
  3. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another mainly cloudy day with showers and some periods of rain possible. It will remain unseasonably cool. The first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of the week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +8.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.992 today. On September 30 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.641 (RMM). The September 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.610 (RMM).
  4. donsutherland1
    Some photos from along the Long Island Sound this afternoon. There were periods of rain and a gusty wind.
  5. donsutherland1
    A short video clip from this morning.
  6. donsutherland1
    The jet stream was altered from former Super typhoon Merbok's push into the Arctic region. It will take some time for that effect to fade--probably by mid-October. In response, some strong blocking had developed, which further amplified the changes that had occurred.
  7. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 59° The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.1° Newark: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.9°
  8. donsutherland1
    Through 6 pm EDT, rainfall amounts are: Bridgeport: 0.36" Islip: 0.51" New York City-JFK: 0.87" New York City-LGA: 0.63" New York City-NYC: 0.58" Newark: 0.61" Philadelphia: 0.88" Westhampton: 1.38" (old record: 1.23", 1958) Additional light rain is possible tonight and tomorrow. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Most locations in that area will see the lower part of that range. The first 10 days of October will be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of next week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.646 today. On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.367 (RMM).
  9. donsutherland1
    June 1.
  10. donsutherland1
    I will check when I get home in a short while.
  11. donsutherland1
    For now, there are some breaks in the clouds and some sunshine in southern Westchester County, even as it continues to rain lightly.
  12. donsutherland1
    Rainfall totals through 12 pm: Bridgeport: 0.30" Islip: 0.46" New York City: 0.57" Newark: 0.58" Philadelphia: 0.88" Westhampton: 1.19" (first 1" or greater rainfall since June 27)
  13. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Rainfall totals through 8 am include: Bridgeport: 0.22”; Islip: 0.38”; New York City: 0.34”; Newark: 0.35”; Philadelphia: 0.84”; and, Westhampton: 0.63”. Today will cloudy and unseasonably cool. There will be showers and some periods of light rain. Eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut could see some moderate to heavy rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 59° Philadelphia: 63° The cool weather will persist until the middle of next week before a brief period of warmer air arrives. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.5° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 73.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.3°
  14. donsutherland1
    September concluded with a monthly mean temperature of 69.6°, which was 0.4° above normal. In large part due to the impact former super typhoon Merbok had on altering the jet stream, cool air has covered the northeastern U.S. to close September. Much or all of the first week of October will see generally cooler than normal readings. Rain will arrive tonight. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +11.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.451 today. On September 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.365 (RMM). The September 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.460 (RMM).
  15. donsutherland1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.6 2.2 3.0
  16. donsutherland1
    This is a great site: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org
  17. donsutherland1
    The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. At least some showers are likely this weekend. Parts of the region, especially central New Jersey southward could see some steadier and perhaps heavier rain. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. Over the past two days, Orlando has seen a two-day record rainfall of 13.05". As a result, September 2022 is Orlando's wettest month on record with total rainfall of 22.36". Ian will make landfall in South Carolina tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +16.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.402 today. On September 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.459 (RMM). The September 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.455 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal).
  18. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly and somewhat cooler. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° The week will end with cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.3° Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 74.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.1°
  19. donsutherland1
    The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. At least some showers are likely this weekend. Parts of the region, especially central New Jersey southward could see some steadier and perhaps heavier rain. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. This afternoon, Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida's southwest coast with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Ian is the 4th hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or above to make U.S. landfall during the last 5 years. Michael (2018), Laura (2020), and Ida (2021) are the others. No other five-year period saw so many powerful hurricanes make U.S. landfall. Ian will continue to move across Florida tonight. Heavy rain and high winds will continue to inflict damage. In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +25.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.845 today. On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.478 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.550 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).
  20. donsutherland1
    Fort Myers Beach: https://twitter.com/Abbieamerican/status/1575219814922010624?s=20&t=IA_FqLq8-Byq_I-k2s8gJw
  21. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 72° The week will end with cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.5°; 15-Year: 72.8° Newark: 30-Year: 73.0°; 15-Year: 74.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.5° Dangerous and potentially deadly Ian will make Florida landfall tonight.
  22. donsutherland1
    Cooler air will begin moving into the region tomorrow. The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. Earlier today, Ian crossed western Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Ian will now move past the Florida Keys and then move toward the Gulf Coast of Florida where it will make landfall. The storm will slow dramatically as it approaches and reaches Florida. As a result, an area of excessive to extreme rainfall is likely. In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +35.30 today. That broke the daily record of +30.41 that was set in 1998. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.975 today. On September 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.557 (RMM). The September 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.597 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).
  23. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 75° It will turn cooler tomorrow. The week will end with cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.9°; 15-Year: 73.1° Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.9°
  24. donsutherland1
    Cooler air will begin moving into the region tomorrow. The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States. Early tomorrow, Cuba will see Ian cross the western end of its island as a major hurricane. Afterward, parts of the Florida Keys and then the Gulf Coast of Florida could face a hurricane threat. Tampa will need to watch the storm carefully. In part due to Merbok's impact on the jet stream, September will likely end with cooler than normal conditions. The cool weather could continue into at least the start of October. In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +32.21 today. That broke the old record of +30.04 from 1998. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.686 today. On September 24 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The September 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.485 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal).
  25. donsutherland1
    Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Some scattered showers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 77° Tomorrow will be slightly cooler. The week will end with cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.5° Newark: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 75.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°
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