donsutherland1

It may not be dry. There are signals on the EPS that the January 1-2 and January 5-7 periods could be wet.

Tomorrow will mark the start of a noticeable warmup. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured. It appears increasingly likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0". Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +17.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.421 today. On December 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.869 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.918 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

The latest EPS weekly guidance for January 2-9, 2023:

I agree. Things are changing.

Only winters 1885-86 and 2015-16 had subzero lows.

New York City's January snowfall in past winters when no measurable snowfall was recorded through December 31st.

8% of such winters, not 8 cases. So, yes, it was just 1 case. While the sample size is small, there's probably enough data to suggest that the outcome favors a winter with below normal snow (not a guarantee, but that's where things are leaning).

Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase. It will be another cold day. High temperatures will reach the upper 20s and lower 30s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 29° Newark: 31° Philadelphia: 31° It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 42.6° Newark: 30-Year: 42.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.5°

A steady moderation of temperatures will commence tomorrow. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. It appears increasingly likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0". Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +17.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.297 today. On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.917 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.799 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.6° (1.5° below normal).

Ice along the shore of the Long Island Sound.

Excerpt from the latest PNS: ...Erie County... Buffalo Airport 43.0 in 0655 AM 12/25 Official NWS Obs Williamsville 3.8 E 31.5 in 0705 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Amherst 5.4 NNE 25.5 in 0800 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Hamburg 0.4 WSW 11.8 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Boston 2.5 NE 8.8 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS Glenwood 1.0 SE 4.3 in 0700 AM 12/25 COCORAHS

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and very cold. High temperatures will reach the upper 20s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 27° Newark: 29° Philadelphia: 29° A slow but steady warming trend will continue tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.8° Newark: 30-Year: 42.4°; 15-Year: 43.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.7°; 15-Year: 44.7°

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures were locked in the teens all day across the region. The core of the coldest air is now slowly departing. Tomorrow will be fair but continued very cold before steady moderation commences early next week. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +25.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.611 today. On December 22 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.789 (RMM). The December 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.357 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.6° (1.5° below normal).

February 11, 1908. High: 48; Low: -12

I'm sorry to hear of this tragedy, especially during the holiday season.

No. MPO once had a 60-degree range.

Some of yesterday’s records:

Philadelphia also had a 50-degree range yesterday.

The 72.0" through December 23rd is the 4th highest figure through that date. Only 1945, 1976, and 2000 had more. Both 1976 and 2000 had a lot more snow during the remainder of winter.

Morning thoughts… Following yesterday’s historic drop in temperatures, today will be mostly sunny and very cold. High temperatures will reach the upper teens and lower 20s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 19° Newark: 21° Philadelphia: 21° Despite sunshine, it will again be very cold tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 43.0° Newark: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 43.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.9° The last time New York City had a high temperature in the teens was January 31, 2019 when the high was 16°. The last time New York City had a high in the teens in December was December 28, 2017 when the temperature topped out at 17°.

That was likely the final figure.

The December 23, 2022 low temperature in New York City was 8F (-13.3C). The temperature fell 50F (27.8C) from the day's high. That was the largest daily range on record. The prior mark of 48F (26.7C) was set on March 28, 1921. Records go back to 1869.

At 11 pm EST, the temperature in Philadelphia was 9F (-12.8C). The temperature has now fallen 50F (27.8C) from the day's high. That sets a new record for largest daily range. The old record was 49F (27.2C), which was set on January 9, 1978.

At 11 pm EST, the temperature in New York City was 9F (-12.8C). The temperature has now fallen 49F (27.2C) from the day's high. That is the largest daily range on record. Records go back to 1869 with 56,165 days (including today) for which daily range data is available.

At 10 pm EST, the temperature in Philadelphia was 11F (-11.7C). The temperature has now fallen 48F (26.7C) from the day's high. That is the second largest daily range on record.