donsutherland1

January 17, 1977 had a high temperature of 8° at JFK. The temperature stayed in the single digits during the afternoon of December 25, 1980. During the 1985 Arctic outbreak, the coldest maximum temperature was 10°.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 41.5° Newark: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.4°; 15-Year: 43.4°

December is concluding on a warmer than normal note in New York City. New York City is finishing December with a mean temperature of 38.5°, which was 0.6° below normal. It would have been 0.6° above normal against the earlier baseline and ranks among the 48 warmest Decembers on record. Newark wound up slightly warmer than normal for the month as a whole. The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England. The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely. 2022 is becoming the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The measurable snow drought could end as early as next Friday. There is a cluster of EPS members (22%) that show 1" or more snow at New York City for January 6th into January 7th. A measurable snowfall is 0.1". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +29.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.415 today. On December 29 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.629 (RMM). The December 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.654 (RMM).

This morning, thick fog developed along the Long Island Sound.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.5 4.6 4.5 5.2 4.0 3.2 1.8 0.2 2.0

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. Some showers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 54° Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.7° Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 43.6° Across the Atlantic, a large part of Europe is experiencing record warmth to end 2022. A number of locations are at or near monthly record highs.

Get well soon.

Yes. That is correct.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Coastal sections remained cooler due to a light onshore breeze. In Canada, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto all saw record high temperatures. Very mild air now covers the region. Highs will generally reach the 50s in most places in coming days. The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The warmth will likely peak during the middle of the week when the mercury approaches or reaches 60° or above as far north as southern New England. The height of the warmth will likely coincide with an AO-/PNA+ pattern. During January 1950-2022, AO-/PNA+ patterns saw 1% of days reach 60° or above in New York City vs. 5.7% of days for all other patterns. The highest January temperature during an AO-/PNA+ pattern occurred on January 8, 1998 when the thermometer reached 65°. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely. It is virtually certain that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +26.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.422 today. On December 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.651 (RMM). The December 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.713 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.4° (0.7° below normal).

61 in Central Park and both LaGuardia and Newark.

Morning thoughts… Today will be fair and unseasonably mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 56° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 43.8°

I meant 14th year out of the 1869-2022 climate record, not 14th consecutive year.

At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 51° five days after the thermometer registered 7°. Rapid rebounds in temperatures have become commonplace. Some recent examples: January 8, 2014: 8°; January 11: 58° February 14, 2016: -1°; February 16: 54° January 7, 2018: 8°; January 11: 53° January 21, 2019: 4°; January 23: 52° January 31, 2019: 2°; February 2: 53° Very mild air now covers the region. Highs will generally reach the 50s in most places in coming days. The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely. It is virtually certain that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +29.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.217 today. On December 27 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.711 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.900 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (1.2° below normal).

To preemptively address a tweet concerning extremes and climate change: The line of argument is that because extremes happened in the past, extremes cannot be linked to climate change. In fact, because synoptic events occur within the context of, among other things, climate forcings, that line of argument is flawed. There is no compelling statistical or physical reason internal variability and a warmer climate must be mutually exclusive outcomes. With climate change, one has witnessed a continuation of extremes. When it comes to temperatures, one has seen a decided shift in extremes toward warmer outcomes reflecting the warming of the climate. For purposes of illustration, I compared minimum temperatures for New York City for the December 1891-1920 and 1991-2020 periods. Statistically, 3-sigma events exist in both regimes. But the meaning of a 3-sigma event differs. The December 25, 2022 low temperature of 7° was a 3-sigma event. In the climate regime of a century ago, a 3-sigma event would have had a low temperature below 2°. Below is a graph with the distribution of daily low temperatures for both climate regimes. Notice the rightward shift in the distribution of low temperatures (warming). Both regimes still have tails, but the numbers in the tails differ reflecting the warming of the climate (urban heat island and anthropogenic warming).

Morning thoughts… Today will become partly sunny. It will be mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 47° Newark: 49° Philadelphia: 49° Temperatures will be above to much above average through at least the coming weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0° Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.9°; 15-Year: 43.9°

First measurable snow to last measurable snow (snow season).

Here it is:

Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 40s today. Tomorrow should be a similarly mild day. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured. It appears extremely likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +28.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.210 today. On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.897 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.961 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

Yes. That’s an invaluable resource. Through November, the much smaller CONUS ranked in a tie with 1931 as the 17th warmest year (1.44F above the 20th century average temperature).

A great summary video on Arctic developments by Dr. Jason Box:

Five points: 1. The map is using the warmest 1991-2020 baseline. 2. Use of the current baseline "resets" the maps to a warmer baseline and masks the warming that has occurred in recent decades. Thus, when discussing climate or making climate-related judgments, they don't tell the full story. When NCEI releases the data early next year, 2022 will very likely rank among the 20 warmest years in the CONUS since 1895 and perhaps among the top 10. 3. The extremes matter. They can't be "undone" simply by pointing to averages. There were a number of historic hot events and some cold ones (e.g., the most recent Arctic blast that saw Casper reach an all-time record low -42F). 4. His conclusion in the second sentence has no support in the scientific literature and no connection to the climate record. 5. I'm not sure what ranges the map is using, but here's the NOAA map for January 1-December 26:

I agree. While there are no guarantees, it should be noted that approximately two-thirds of New York City's seasonal snowfall typically occurs after January 16.

The January record is 18 days (January 13 through January 30, 1932).

Through at least the first week of January, the low temperature in New York City will likely remain above freezing. That implies a high probability that New York City will not see its first measurable snowfall until after the first week of January.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 45° Temperatures will be above to much above average through at least the coming weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.1°; 15-Year: 44.1°