donsutherland1

Unfortunately, the once freely-available GEFS forecasts are now only available on vendor sites.

I found them here: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

If the guidance verifies, this will be a historic EPO block. Both the EPS and GEFS show the EPO plunging to -5.000 or below for November 15-16. Below are the November and all-time records: November Record: -3.600, November 8, 1979 All-Time Record: -5.044, December 24, 1983 (only day on record with a -5.000 or below value)

The potential for some snow/sleet clearly is there. Overnight, there was even a hint that at least a trace of wintry precipitation could even extend close to the coast.

Morning thoughts… Today will be fair and warmer. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 69° Rain from Nicole will arrive tomorrow. Thunderstorms are possible and it will be unseasonably warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9° Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

It was 39 this morning.

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s tomorrow under partly sunny skies. However, the sunshine will yield to increasing clouds late in the day or at night. Rain will develop on Friday as the remnants of Nicole move northward. A general 1"-2" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph. With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° Friday and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 6 70° days this month. The November record is 7 days, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which tied the November record set in 1975. Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was +4.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.285 today. On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.741 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.4° (2.4° above normal).

Morning thoughts… A frosty start will be followed by a sunny but cool day. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.2°; 15-Year: 56.2° Newark: 30-Year: 57.3°; 15-Year: 57.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.3°; 15-Year: 58.2°

After a frosty start, tomorrow will again see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. The cold front could be preceded by a rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday, particularly west of the Appalachians. Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its duration, should it develop, is uncertain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -14.89 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.930 today. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.743 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3° (2.3° above normal).

This post revisits the comment from November 3: The GEFS now forecasts the AO to go negative after mid-month. That forecast is in good agreement with statistical outcomes following strong polar vortexes at the end of October. The development of a period of Atlantic blocking will follow the ongoing development of an EPO-. The outcome will likely be a colder than normal period that will last 7-10 days. Deeper and more sustained Atlantic blocking would allow for a longer duration of cold conditions. Currently, both the EPS weeklies and CFSv2 weeklies suggest that the cold will be replaced by a return to warmer conditions in the closing days of November.

Many parts of the northeastern U.S. saw their warmest first week of November on record. A sample of records is below.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and much cooler High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be another cool day. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6° Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6°

Error fixed.

Ten years ago the high temperature at JFK Airport was 41°, as a snowstorm moved in. Today, summerlike warmth prevailed as the thermometer topped out at 80°. Today's daily records included: Athens, GA: 85° (old record: 84°, 2017) Atlanta: 83° (old record: 79°, 2005 and 2017) Atlantic City: 81° (old record: 77°, 2020) Baltimore: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938, 1975, and 2020) Bangor: 73° (old record: 71°, 2020) Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record*** Caribou: 64° (old record: 63°, 1948) Houlton, ME: 67° (old record: 66°, 1948 and 1975) Islip: 80° (old record: 74°, 2020) ***New November Record*** Lynchburg: 84° (old record: 77°, 1965) New Haven: 80° (old record: 69°, 2020) ***New November Record*** New Orleans: 90° (old record: 86°, 1986) ***New November Record; Latest 90° temperature on record*** New York City-JFK: 80° (old record: 73°, 2020) New York City-LGA: 78° (old record: 76°, 2020) Newark: 81° (old record: 78°, 1938) Philadelphia: 79° (old record: 76°, 1938) Poughkeepsie: 75° (tied record set in 2020) Providence: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020) Raleigh: 84° (old record: 80°, 2008) Richmond: 82° (old record: 81°, 1975) Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 76°, 2020) Tallahassee: 88° (old record: 86°, 2003 and 2015) Trenton: 76° (tied record set in 1975) Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 77°, 1938 and 1975) Westhampton: 80° (old record: 70°, 2020) ***New November Record*** White Plains: 75° (old record: 73°, 2020) Wilmington, DE: 80° (old record: 75°, 1938, 1975, and 2020) Boston, Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City (JFK, LGA, NYC), Newark, and Philadelphia all experienced their warmest first week of November on record. The final numbers will be available after midnight, as cooler air is now pressing into the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures no higher than the 50s in most of the region. Afterward, the temperature will again rebound before another stronger cold front brings cooler than normal conditions for late in the weekend and early next week. The cold front could be preceded by a significant rain and wind event, in part due to the remnants of Nicole. The potential exists for a widespread significant rainfall Friday through Saturday. Beyond mid-month, there are emerging signals that Atlantic blocking could try to develop. There is now good agreement between the latest ensembles and the statistical guidance following strong polar vortexes at the end of October showing the AO going negative toward November 20th +/- a few days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter. The SOI was -31.05 today. The previous record low was -21.59, which was set in 1997. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.739 today. On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.827 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.725 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.5° (2.5° above normal).

JFK hit 80 at 1:45 pm.

11/1/1950. There’s still a chance that it hit 80 within the last 15 minutes. We’ll see later.

JFK was also 77. Latest was November 1, 1950 (80).

It’s also hotter for the Connecticut shore. Bridgeport (79) and New Haven (80) have set monthly records.

It was 77 at Islip on 11/15/1993.

So far, 79 is the high at JFK.

Areas that have hit 80 or above include: Atlantic City: 81 Islip: 80 New Haven: 80 Newark: 81

It hit 80.

On the final day of extreme November warmth, Bridgeport and Islip have tied their daily records and New Haven has broken its daily record as of 10 am.

For now, I’m thinking Central Park will get to 34.