donsutherland1

No. There was very little wind.

In her, "In the bleak midwinter," 19th Century English poet Christina Rossetti wrote: In the bleak midwinter, frosty wind made moan, Earth stood hard as iron, water like a stone; Snow had fallen, snow on snow, snow on snow, In the bleak midwinter, long ago. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, the kind of cold and snow that inspired Rossetti is nowhere to be found. That will remain the case therough the remainder of January. A storm will bring additional rain to the region late tonight into early Monday. The rain could mix with wet snow tomorrow morning and then end as a period of wet snow or flurries in New York City tomorrow night or Monday morning. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City and Newark. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations. The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots are likely. As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -3.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.981 today. On January 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.390 (RMM). The January 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.354 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal).

The surface temperature for the April 2, 2018 storm dropped to 33° and held there. The 1907 storm, for which hourly data is not available, had a low of 35°. Below is the data for the April 2, 2018 storm:

HREF:

I made an error. That storm was April 2, 2018.

April 2, 2018: 5.5" (Low: 33)

April 9, 1907: 5.0" (Ratio: 5.4:1). Almost all of the snow fell before dawn. Total precipitation: 0.92". The snow fell heavily during the storm (very likely visibilities < 0.25 mile).

Overnight, the GFS returned to the land of model reality after having stood alone from the operational and mesocale models, along with all of the individual GEFS members. The higher elevations from I-84 to north and west of Albany could see 4" amounts with some locally higher amounts in excess of 6". At lower elevations, the highest accumulations will start to occur somewhere between I-84 and I-90. Given the marginal air mass, the temperature is likely to remain above freezing throughout the duration of the storm in New York City. Lowest temperatures: GFS MOS: 38°; NAM MOS: 37°; NBE: 38°. As a result, the snow-to-liquid ratios will be very low (very likely < 5:1) for any show that falls in and around New York City. The 1/27 0z EPS cycle saw 14% of members with 1" or more snow in New York City. However, given ratios of 5:1 or less, the 2" threshold is a better indicator of the probability of 1" or more snow. Just 6% of members saw 2" or more snow. In sum, Central Park will likely see little or no accumulation from this storm. New York City's and Newark's ongoing record streaks of 728 consecutive days without 2" or more snowfall will continue. Historic Snowfall Amounts and Snow-to-Liquid Ratios for Above Freezing Storms: 0.25" Precipitation or above Lows of 33 or above and 35 or above January 1, 1869 through January 26, 2024 EPS and NBE Numbers: WPC Guidance: With New York City very likely to see less than 3.0" snowfall through January 31st, the historic probability of seeing 20.0" or more or 30.0" or more during February 1-April 30 is lower than the historic average.

It’s not more precise, but the weather records are maintained in tenths of degrees. That virtually every other country uses it is also a benefit.

Not that I am aware of. I have seen some physical records and they are all in Fahrenheit.

That milestone will be reached on Monday. The cold could be arriving around the 10th and well in place by mid-month. I’m not yet sure whether there will be severe cold.

I prefer Celsius for that reason. Records are kept by tenths of degrees.

The final high was 80. The tweet was based on the value of 80.6. Sometimes, such values are off by a degree or so.

A storm will bring a moderate snowfall with some locally significant amounts to the higher elevations of the Catskills. For New York City, the storm will bring rain that could end as a period of wet snow or flurries. New York City's ongoing without daily snowfall of 2" or more--currently at 727 days today--will go on. Any snowfall amounts would be minor, as ratios will be very low. EPS and NBE Numbers: WPC 24-Hour Snowfall Probabilities: This outcome is consistent with past cases where the AO was +1.000 or above and the EPO was positive. As for the latest GFS run (18z), it is an outlier with no support from any other global model or mesoscale model. Moreover, all 31 members of the GEFS disagree with its solution. The most aggressive member of the GEFS shows just 1" of snow for New York City (actual amount would be lower as the ratios will be far less than 10:1). Finally, in the longer-range, it still appears that a pattern change toward consistently colder conditions will likely commence during the second week of February. Consistent with climatology associated with strong El Niño events, mid-month could see colder than normal conditions.

Today was another day ruled by clouds, mist, drizzle and light rain in the New York City and Newark areas. Temperatures were confined to the lower and middle 40s. At Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE, the mercury rose into the lower 50s. Farther south, it was a whole different season. The thermometer soared into the upper 70s and even 80°. Washington, DC reached 80°, setting a January monthly record. That was also its earliest 80° or above temperature on record (old record: February 21, 2018). High temperatures in parts of the Mid-Atlantic area included: Baltimore: 78° Charlottesville, VA: 80° (old record: 74°, 1950) Georgetown, DE: 73° Norfolk: 77° (tied record set in 1950) Richmond: 78° Salisbury, MD: 75° (old record: 73°, 1950) Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 70°, 1967) ***New January record*** Wallops Island, VA: 76° (old record: 64°, 2017) ***New January record*** Washington, DC: 80° (old record: 79°, 1950) ***New January record*** Even with temperatures hanging on in the lower and middle 40s, overall readings were milder than the seasonal average. The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots appear likely. As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions. A storm will bring additional rain to the region later this weekend into early next week. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade. The SOI was -2.40 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.658 today. On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.354 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.586 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal).

2 pm temperatures: Wilmington, DE: 51° Georgetown, DE: 72°

Yes, it would break the January monthly record set on this date in 1950. We'll see when the final numbers are out.

Washington, DC (DCA) has hit 80° for a high so far.

The January 26, 2024 12z run of the GFS is an outlier among the global models, both for the near-term (next 72 hours) and medium-term (240 hours). Its 10:1 maps show an extremely snowy 10-day period centered parts of New England. Boston will be used as an example to illustrate the extreme nature of the run. The 12z run shows 33.4" of snow at Boston over the 10-day period ending February 5, 2024 12z. That map is extremely unlikely to verify. There have been just four prior cases where Boston has seen 33.0" or more snowfall over a 10-day period (overlapping periods excluded). None of the highlighted periods was even close to being as mild as the one that is forecast on the 12z GFS. In sum, the 12z GFS solution through 240 hours should be disregarded: It's an outlier among global models It has no support among the ensembles It calls for the kind of snowfall that has not occurred before with such mild conditions as forecast

The above data is only through January 25th. The final end-of-season ranking had 1972-73 10th (mainly because it was much colder than a number of other low snowfall winters with a DJF mean temperature of 35.6°).

Through 11 am, NYC has had 203 hours of overcast conditions this month. Last year, January had 277 such hours through the end of the month. The most I could find was 293 hours in 2017. Data only goes back to 1996.

Good information. Like you, I hope next winter will wind up significantly more snowy.

1972-73 finished 10th on the final season ranking. It had a winter mean temperature of 35.6°, which played a key role in where it stood.

Latest EPS and NBE numbers: It should be noted that any snow in the New York City and Newark areas will very likely be very low- to low-ratio snow. Meanwhile, New York City's streak of less than 2" daily snowfall rolls on.

This storm is looking more and more like a late-season elevation-dependent storm. I agree with you about there possibly being big differences once at 1000-feet or above with possibly up to 8" in some of the highest elevations.