donsutherland1
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Everything posted by donsutherland1
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Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796 Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify. The last time that happened was in 1956. Future updates will be based on actual data.
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March 2023 temperature forecast contest
donsutherland1 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.4 -1.8 -1.7 -0.3 2.5 1.0 -1.2 -2.6 -3.6 -
They probably had 4"-5". I drove by there this morning.
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Many 3"-6" amounts were reported just outside NYC (also including the Bronx).
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EWR: 1.7" JFK: 1.5" LGA: 2.7" NYC: 1.8"
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JFK had 1.0” yesterday. That broke the daily record of 0.4” from 1979 and 1991.
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Snow falling at Mamaroneck, New York:
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A storm will bring New York City and Newark 1"-3" of snow before the precipitation changes to rain overnight. Immediately north and west of the City, 2"-4" is likely. In the far northern and western suburbs, 3"-6" of snow is likely. The precipitation will end tomorrow. It will remain cool. Wednesday and especially Thursday will be milder. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday. The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was not available today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.363 today. MJO data was unavailable. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).
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Could happen, especially if the changeover doesn't occur near midnight or the snow is on the heavier side of the guidance (e.g., 12z GFS amounts).
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Yes.
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NW NJ and areas north of White Plains—maybe even White Plains—will likely be closed.
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Perhaps. Doubtful in Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island.
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Very unlikely for NYC. Perhaps in some of the suburbs there will be delayed openings and maybe some closures.
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Morning thoughts… Today will become mostly cloudy. Snow will overspread the region this evening. New York City and Newark will see a general 1”-3”, areas just outside New York City will pick up 2”-4”, and the far northern and western suburbs will see 3”-6”. Snow will likely mix with and change to rain along the coast. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 41° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 46° Precipitation will end tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1° Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3°
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The 0z HREF:
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100% of EPS members continue to show 1" or more snow for New York City. The 20z National Blend of Models ranges from 1.2" at JFK Airport to 2.4" at Central Park.
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Colder air will begin filtering into the region overnight. That will set the stage for the area's biggest snowfall so far this season. At present, it appears that New York City and Newark are in line for 1"-3" of snow before the precipitation changes to rain. Immediately north and west of the City, 2"-4" is likely. In the far northern suburbs, 3"-6" of snow is likely. Another storm is possible in the March 3-4 timeframe. The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +15.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.547 today. On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.066 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.066 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).
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45/51 (88%) of EPS members have 1" or more for JFK Airport. The 16z NBM shows 1.2".
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Yes. That's the record.
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 25th: That will change by the end of Monday. 100% of EPS members now show 1" or more snow for NYC. The National Blend of Models has 2.1" (11z run).
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In the wake of today's light snow that brought coatings outside New York City and Newark, clouds will break overnight. Much milder air will return tomorrow. Afterward, another system could bring snow changing to rain to the region. At present areas just to the north and west of New York City could see 1"-3" Monday into Monday night. Areas well north and west of the City could pick up 3"-6". The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +13.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.506 today. On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.066 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.209 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).
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A trace.
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Two photos of the period of snow in Armonk, New York.
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Snow is through the whole season. At the end, I can post with Dec-Feb temperatures and Dec-March temperatures.
