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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    Temperatures rose into the middle and even upper 80s across the rgion on what will likely be the warmest day for the remainder of August. Philadelphia topped out at 90°. Meanwhile, along the Gulf Coast, a historic heat dome delivered numerous all-time record highs including: Gulfport, MS: 107° (new all-time record) Mobile: 106° (new all-time record) New Orleans: 102° (tied all-time record) Pascagoula, MS: 106° (new all-time record) Pensacola topped out at 105°, which fell 1° short of its all-time record. Baton Rouge, Houston, New Orleans, and Tampa, among other cities, remain on track for their hottest month on record. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.167 today. On August 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.401 (RMM). The August 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.668 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).
  2. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. A shower or thundershower is possible. Nevertheless, a prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings is underway and will continue through at least the end of the month. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.355 today. On August 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.673 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.906 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5° (1.6° below normal).
  3. donsutherland1
    Not yet. It's going to be more complicated this year if the north Atlantic remains as warm as it is. It could distort the pattern evolution. I don't think it will be a general wall-to-wall NAO+/AO+ winter, though.
  4. donsutherland1
    Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight and tomorrow. A prolonged stretch of generally cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the end of the month. Meanwhile, Chicago reached a daily record-tying 100° today. Houston (109°) and Alexandria, LA (110°) tied their all-time records. In Europe, more than 75 cities in France set new all-time high temperature records. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -12.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.742 today. On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.931 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.865 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4° (1.7° below normal).
  5. donsutherland1
    A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Showers and thundershowers are likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -17.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.573 today. On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.871 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.751 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).
  6. donsutherland1
    A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -14.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today. On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.747 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.560 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).
  7. donsutherland1
    Cooler air will return for tomorrow. Afterward, a prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend. Yesterday, Hilary brought an all-time daily record 2.20" rainfall to Death Valley. That tops the previous one- two- and three-day records. It also matches that location's average annual rainfall (1991-2020 baseline) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.500 today. On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.553 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.7° (1.4° below normal).
  8. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°. Hilary continues to bring excessive rainfall to the California desert into Nevada. 8 WSW Borrego Spring in San Diego County has seen 6.02" of rain. Daily rainfall records include: Burbank: 1.44" Long Beach: 1.49" Los Angeles: 1.25" Los Angeles (downtown): 1.50" Palm Springs: 2.64" ***new August daily record*** Palmdale: 2.66" ***new August daily record*** San Diego: 0.91" Earlier today, Yuma, Arizona recorded 45 mph sustained winds with gusts to 69 mph. The wind gusted as high as 84 mph in California's mountains. The adjacent heat dome produced impressive record heat. Houston topped out at 108° (2nd highest temperature on record) and College Station hit an all-time record-tying 112°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.120 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (1.3° below normal).
  9. donsutherland1
    Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Parts of the region could see the temperature reach or exceed 90°. Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tonight through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was unavailable today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.511 today. On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.117 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.089 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).
  10. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves through the region. New York City will see readings in the lower 60s. The nearby suburbs could see the mercury dip into the 50s. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns. Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tomorrow night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.091 today. On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal).
  11. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Some showers and thundershowers are likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Meanwhile Hilary will bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada Saturday night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -4.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.472 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.134 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.193 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
  12. donsutherland1
    Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, the current extreme heat event is concluding. Portland topped out at 103° (old record: 102°, 1977), its 4th consecutive 100° or above reading. No August had ever seen 4 or more consecutive 100° temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.210 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (0.4° below normal).
  13. donsutherland1
    Slightly cooler air will move into the region tonight. Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event continues. the heat will ease tomorrow. Records included: Eugene: 105° Olympia: 100° Omak: 108° (new August record) Portland: 103° (latest 3-day streak of 100° on record) Salem: 102° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +0.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.568 today. On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal).
  14. donsutherland1
    Rain and thunderstorms are likely tonight. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with locally higher amounts of up to 3.00". Tomorrow will again see readings near or somewhat above normal before slightly cooler air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is underway. Numerous daily and monthly records fell. Records included: Eugene: 103° (old record: 101°, 2010) Hillsboro, OR: 107° (old record: 101°, 1953 and 2008) ***New August record*** Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** Salem: 105° (old record: 102°, 1942) Troutdale, OR: 110° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New August record*** Vancouver, WA: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record*** The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +3.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.774 today. On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.227 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  15. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow through Tuesday will see readings near or somewhat above normal before a cold front brings briefly cooler readings. Overall, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat could fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is developing. Already at 3 pm PDT, Portland and Salem had reached 100°. At the height of the heat tomorrow, Portland could see its August high temperature record of 107° challenged. Salem could also challenge its August mark of 108°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +5.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.272 today. On August 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.226 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.215 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  16. donsutherland1
    This evening into tonight will likely see scattered showers and thundershowers. A few thunderstorms could be strong to perhaps severe. Not all locations will see thunderstorms. Tomorrow through Tuesday will see readings near or somewhat above normal before a cold front brings briefly cooler readings. Overall, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat could fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +4.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.556 today. On August 11 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.214 (RMM). The August 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.407 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).
  17. donsutherland1
    Rain and thunderstorms will likely return to the region tomorrow. Parts of the region could see 1" or more rainfall. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. However, the August 14-21 period looks to be warmer than normal. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. for much or all of the next two weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -27.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.868 today. On August 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.218 (RMM). The August 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
  18. donsutherland1
    Fair weather will continue through tomorrow before showers and thundershowers could return to the region. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week. Tucson saw its record 53-day streak of 100° or above temperatures end. Baton Rouge's record 10-day stretch of 100° temperatures also ended. Nevertheless, Del Rio reached a daily record 109°, marking the 4th consecutive day it has reached or exceeded its pre-2023 August monthly high temperature record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -24.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.832 today. On August 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.536 (RMM). The August 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.648 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
  19. donsutherland1
    Arizona and New Mexico demolished their records for hottest month by more than 1.5°. That's enormous on a statewide basis.
  20. donsutherland1
    In Phoenix, July 2023 was so hit that it broke out of the 99.9% confidence interval for hottest month relative to the 30-year moving average of summer temperatures. This shows how extraordinary the month was. It could imply that the record will stand for some time, monthly extremes are growing faster than summer temperatures are rising, and/or climatic variability is increasing in the warming climate.
  21. donsutherland1
    A line of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will push across the region this evening. Drier weather will follow tomorrow and continue through midweek. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week. Today, Laredo reached an August monthly record-tying 111°. El Paso reached 109°, its third consecutive day above the pre-2023 August monthly record of 108°. Del Rio (109°), San Angelo (109°), and San Antonio (105°) all set records. New Orleans reached 100° for a record 3rd consecutive day. Baton Rouge reached 100° for a record 10th consecutive day. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around August 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.07°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -27.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.254 today. On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.646 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.506 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).
  22. donsutherland1
    Showers and thundershowers are likely tonight and again tomorrow. Tomorrow's thunderstorms could be strong to severe, especially south and west of New York City. Flash flooding is possible where the heaviest thunderstorms develop. Drier weather will follow and continue through midweek. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest remains in the midst of unseasonable heat. The intense heat will slowly fade this week, but additional locations could reach or break their August monthly records. Phoenix topped out at a record-tying 114°. El Paso (112°) and Del Rio (110°) set August monthly record high temperatures. Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 9th consecutive day. That broke the record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921. Brownsville (8 consecutive days) and Lafayette (8 consecutive days) also set new marks for most consecutive 100° days. New Orleans reached 100° for a record-tying second consecutive day. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -24.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.296 today. On August 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.503 (RMM). The August 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.158 (RMM).
  23. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another fair and pleasantly warm day. Highs will mainly reach the lower and middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible on Monday. Near-term heat is unlikely. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest is again in the midst of unseasonable heat. Phoenix reached 116° today (old record: 115°, 2019). Albuquerque, Deming, El Paso, and Truth or Consequences all reached or exceeded their August monthly records. The intense heat will slowly fade next week, but additional locations could reach or break their August monthly records. Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 8th consecutive day. That tied the record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921. That record will likely be broken on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -21.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.819 today. On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.161 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.951 (RMM).
  24. donsutherland1
    The weekend will feature fair and pleasantly warm readings. Highs will mainly reach the lower and middle 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible on Monday. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first 10 days of August. In fact, the latest ECMWF weeklies show no notable heat through at least the first half of August. The U.S. Southwest is again in the midst of unseasonable heat. Phoenix reached 115° today Cities such as Del Rio, El Paso, Phoenix, and Tucson could approach or reach their August high temperature records before the heat fades. Louisiana is also roasting. Baton Rouge reached 100° for the 7th consecutive day. That is tied for the second longest such streak. The record of 8 consecutive days from August 19-26, 1921 will likely be tied tomorrow and broken on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.611 today. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.951 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM).
  25. donsutherland1
    It’s unthinkable heat for this time of year.
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