donsutherland1

Under brilliant sunshine, temperatures soared into the lower and middle 60s. Tomorrow will be a cooler day. Showers are possible tomorrow night into Tuesday. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday. The first day of April could start the month off on a much warmer than normal note based on increasing support among the guidance. Overall, the first week of April could wind up near or somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -1.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.707 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.682 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.932 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.6° above normal normal).

This is true. You have seen it. I have seen it. But many of the Millennials and even Gen-Z who have only been exposed to his more recent post-AccuWeather work have not. Awareness of this other side makes the current evolution all the more painful.

The way I see it is that he has made a terrible deal in the closing years of his forecasting career. He has chosen to devote his last forecasting years to an all-consuming crusade of climate change denial. It increasingly appears that he has chosen to become a mercenary for climate change denialism. Much as in war where mercenaries garner little respect and even less sympathy for their having exchanged their ethical principles for profit, the same holds true in a wide range of professional fields, including meteorology. Today, his forecasts are almost always skewed toward the cold, snowy, or extreme side. Data, maps, and models are cherry-picked and risk is distorted in order to push the preferred narrative. The implicit idea increasingly appears that he uses his forecasts are used as "proof" that warming is not occurring, internal variability explains all outcomes, etc., all to support his narrative of climate change denial. Former AccuWeather colleagues have weighed in on Twitter, but to no avail. Some leading climate scientists have also tried to share data with him on Twitter to address his increasingly wild ideas, again to no avail. It seems that no one can influence him. He does not listen. There is no openness on his part to allow the data, evidence, and facts to influence his thinking. He remains unwavering in his crusade to deny climate change. What about his recent high-profile busts? Very likely, that's not a problem for his fossil fuel clients. His fossil fuel clients very likely have little or no interest in his forecasting accuracy. They can rely on other forecasters for their weather guidance. In their eyes, his most valuable role is to loudly push climate change denial. That he undertakes that effort at the expense of his professional credibility, forecasting legacy, and personal reputation is wholly irrelevant to those clients. Those clients are deeply unethical actors. Otherwise, they would not be engaging in their current practices, much less evading responsibility for the harm they are inflicting on ecosystems and future generations. Given that context, they have no hesitation to hire mercenaries who engage in the self-destruction of all of that they once were and all that they are. As long as those individuals keep advancing those clients' interests, the payments keep rolling in. That's the deal. He does not understand its terms. He does not see its nefarious requirements. That proverbial "bargain with the Devil" is a tragic last chapter in his career. When he leaves the forecasting arena, his past work as an Expert Forecaster at AccuWeather won't be remembered. Most have only been exposed to his recent and present reality. Instead, he will be recalled as one who futilely, stubbornly, and inaccurately forecast extremes, while rejecting climate science despite its being built on a foundation of unequivocal and overwhelming evidence. He still has some time left to change course. I sincerely hope that he will do so. But that increasingly appears to be as unlikely a scenario as the verification of some of his recent almost still-born extreme forecasts. He ignores his former colleagues. He dismisses the counsel of experts in the field. He tunes out the evidence. Will he listen to anyone? The reputational destruction his present course entails will be a great tragedy. That unfolding tragedy is already in its advanced stages of evolution.

The guidance has been growing warmer for April 1st. Currently, the guidance suggests that readings will reach the middle and upper 60s around New York City. Philadelphia could be in the 70s:

I suspect his refusal to accept the basic physics associated with greenhouse gases is leading him to grab onto anything that he could plausibly use to try to muddy the picture. That even a quick look at the evidence knocks down his latest idea is irrelevant. He selects the data, maps, and ideas that fit his thinking and never looks farther. That approach has severely undermined his forecasting. He either doesn't know or doesn't care. This is a very sad last chapter of his forecasting career.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny, breezy and much milder today. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 63° Tomorrow will be milder as the sun returns. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.3°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 55.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 57.1°

Heavy snow fell across southern Wisconsin today. Milwaukee picked up 8.9" (old record: 5.2", 1933) and Madison saw 12.1" (old record: 5.0", 1899). That was Milwaukee's 7th highest daily snowfall on or after March 25th. It was Madison's 2nd highest daily snowfall on or after March 25th. Meanwhile, the snow-starved Philadelphia to New York City area saw showers. Some sleet pellets mixed in early as if to taunt New Yorkers hoping for a spring miracle, reminding them about the winter that never was. Following the system that brought the chilly rain to the region, tomorrow will turn fair and milder. A stiff breeze will create a blustery feel, even as the temperature rises well into the 50s and perhaps even lower 60s. Showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday into Thursday. The first week of April could be somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now extremely likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -3.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.498 today. On March 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.935 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.801 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.4° (1.6° above normal normal).

There was a bright display as far south as North Carolina overnight.

Only clouds here.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some showers and perhaps a thundershower. Some areas could see a few sleet pellets early on. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 55° Tomorrow will be milder as the sun returns. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.9°; 15-Year: 53.6° Newark: 30-Year: 53.8°; 15-Year: 54.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.0°; 15-Year: 56.7°

It seems very bad. It’s going to be a long night of severe weather.

A storm will then bring a cold rain to the region to start the weekend. Some sleet is possible in New York City and its nearby suburbs. There may even be a little snow in the distant northern and western suburbs at the onset of the precipitation. The first week of April could be somewhat cooler than normal. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -5.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.818 today. On March 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.800 (RMM). The March 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.728 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.3° (1.5° above normal normal).

There's no basis to the claim about volcanoes. In fact, oceans are warming fastest closer to the surface. That's the opposite of what one would expect from the bottom-up warming that would be occurring had volcanoes and geothermal activity been responsible. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content

Continuing the look at extreme forecasts and forecasting failure... The gap between what's needed for forecast verification for an extreme March 1-April 15 scenario for New York City has continued to swell. No prior cases exist within New York City's climate that would even approach what is now needed to verify the forecast. Blame is now being deflected. The implied assumption is that the warmth of the oceans precluded a good forecast. I could not disagree more strongly with the implied assumption. We are not living in 1985. 1985 is completely irrelevant. Today's circumstances are what matters. As noted in discussions earlier in this thread, the extreme forecast for a March 1-April 15 temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and 20” of snow in New York City was always very likely to fail, especially in today's warmer climate. The same held true for very cold and snowy forecasts for Boston, Philadelphia, Providence, and Washington, DC for the same timeframe. The all but certain high-profile forecasting failures in question are directly the result of the forecaster's denial of climate change. That he is now "waking up" to today's much warmer ocean temperatures is a consequence of having been unaware of what was actually occurring. He was rejecting science and stubbornly clinging to an increasingly misaligned forecasting framework all the while things were changing dramatically. Had he accepted the science related to climate change, he would have: • Understood why the oceans are warming (they absorb 90% of the heat from the enhanced greenhouse effect) and why they will continue to warm for the foreseeable future. • Recognized that the shift in ocean temperatures and the increased incidence of marine heatwaves have large-scale implications for the MJO, synoptic patterns, etc. • Known that old analogs from a colder climate regime that no longer exists are irrelevant or even misleading. There's a lot of high quality and accessible literature available on climate change. He should ignore the siren call of the dying climate denial movement. He should turn to science for the answers. Acceptance of scientific reality, even now, would very likely lead to far better forecasts. Acceptance of science would have helped avoid some high-profile forecasting failures. Ignorance or rejection of crucial domain and contextual knowledge, such as that related to climate change and its implications, can only undermine forecast quality and amplify the risk of error.

I saw it. The control run is among the worst tools when it lacks support from the other ensemble members and when there is no run-to-run continuity. New England very likely hasn't seen its last snowfall, but there is little support for the kind of solution shown on that map.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler. Periods of rain are possible in parts of the region, especially Philadelphia. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° Tomorrow will feature periods of rain and cool temperatures. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 53.2° Newark: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 54.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.6°; 15-Year: 56.3°

New York City has the lowest seasonal snowfall to date through March 23rd. Based on continuing ensemble guidance, there is little credible support for a late-season snowstorm in the New York City area. Instead, consistent with the very low snow cases through March 23rd, most or all of the snowfall this season is likely done.

A frontal system extended across the northern Mid-Atlantic region today. The front separated mild air from exceptionally warm air. At Bridgeport, the temperature remained in the 50s. At Washington, DC, the mercury soared to 81°. Tomorrow will be another mild day albeit somewhat cooler than today. A storm will then bring a cold rain to the region to start the weekend. April could start on a cool, but not necessarily exceptionally cold note. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +1.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.133 today. On March 21 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.730 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.850 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1° (1.3° above normal normal).

Unfortunately, it won’t last.

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and mild. Some showers are possible High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 66° The mild weather will continue through tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.8° Newark: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 54.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.2°; 15-Year: 55.9°

On this date in 1998, 5.0" of snow fell boosting winter 1997-98's seasonal snowfall to 5.5". As a result, with its 2.3" of snow to date, the 2022-23 snow season ranks as the least snowy season through March 22nd. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and very mild. Some showers are likely. Much of this week will feature readings in the 50s and even 60s. Overall, it now appears likely that March will wind up warmer than normal. April could start on a cool, but not necessarily exceptionally cold note. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.080 today. On March 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.856 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.311 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1° (1.3° above normal normal).

Tomorrow will be another mild day, even as clouds increase. Much of this week will feature readings in the 50s and even 60s. Overall, it now appears likely that March will wind up warmer than normal. The latest weekly guidance suggests that April could start on a cool, but not necessarily exceptionally cold note. As has been the case throughout the winter and early part of spring, the coldest air will likely remain in western and central North America. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 19, New York City is now very likely to finish the season with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow through March 19th wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. New York City is currently on a path that could culminate in its setting a new record for lowest seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around March 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.26°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +3.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.582 today. On March 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.311 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.512 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.1° (1.3° above normal normal).

Astronomical spring arrived yesterday. Today is the first full day of astronomical spring and it certainly feels like the season. If you're outdoors, enjoy it.

Continuing the discussion arising from high-visibility extreme forecasts continually pushed on Social Media that regularly fail, I ran through numerous tweets from calls about weather, climate, and markets. I also relied on literature relevant to forecasting and cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, escalation of commitment, etc. Based on this assessment, I believe I have reasonably captured the elements of bad forecasting frameworks (I limited domain/contextual knowledge here to weather/climate given that this is a weather board) and those that define good forecasting. Good forecasting should not be confused with perfect forecasting. Good forecasting is defined by forecasts that consistently, but not always, prove realistic or reasonable against the outcomes of those forecasts. Error cannot be eliminated. However, in most cases, enormous errors are infrequent.

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 61° The mild weather will continue through Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 52.1° Newark: 30-Year: 52.4°; 15-Year: 53.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.4°; 15-Year: 55.1°