donsutherland1

Under sparkling sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 50s today. A few spots reached 60°. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s in much of the region through Saturday. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend, but no strong cold shots are likely. Model support has increased for a sustained turn toward milder weather next week. Some uncertainty still exists, but the overall probability that March could finish near or somewhat warmer than normal has increased in recent days. No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the next week. New York City is currently on a path that could end with its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 16, New York City has a high probability of finishing with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 88% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 16 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The highest seasonal amount in such cases occurred in 1991-1992 when 12.6" of snow was measured. By March 19th, all 10 winters with less than 8.5" of snow wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.066 today. On March 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.528 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 3.956 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.9° (0.1° above normal normal).

After today, no years had the combination of cold and snow required for NYC to have a March 1-April 15 temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and snowfall of 20" or above. In short, the forecast's verification now depends on an unprecedented combination of cold and snow through April 15th. Final verification vs. the extreme forecast will be made at the end of the period involved.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 56° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will be another mild day. Some showers are possible. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.4° Newark: 30-Year: 50.7°; 15-Year: 51.6 Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.6°; 15-Year: 53.2°

I sure hope so. A weak or moderate El Niño would probably give us our best shot at a snowy outcome, as long as there is Atlantic and Pacific blocking. We'll have to watch the Atlantic SSTAs, as any marine heatwave could complicate the picture.

Overnight, the blustery wind will diminish. Tomorrow, much milder air will overspread the region. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s in much of the region through Saturday. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend. No potential snowstorms appear likely through at least the next week. Instead, New York City is now on a path that could end with its setting a new low seasonal snowfall record. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.470 today. On March 13 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 3.957 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 4.161 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

With respect to the extreme forecast that March 1-April 15 would see New York City have a temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and 20" of snow, here's where things currently stand as far as temperatures are concerned. To achieve the -5.0° anomaly, the temperature would need to average 7.7° below normal from March 16 through April 15. Just 11 years out of New York City's 154-year climate record or 7% of years saw the temperature average 7.7° below the current normal figure for that timeframe. 82% of those years occurred in the 19th century. The last such year was 1956. To achieve 20" snowfall, New York City would need 19.9" of snow during that period. Only 1956 (23.7") had sufficient snowfall. The second highest figure was 13.9" in 2018. The third highest figure was 13.6" in 1967. All said, just one year out of New York City's climate record had both the cold and snowfall necessary to verify the extreme forecast. In coming days, the City would need not just a rare outcome, but an unprecedented one for the extreme forecast to verify. As noted back in February when the extreme forecast was issued, that forecast was never likely to verify. It was detached from New York City's climate and disconnected from the evidence. At that time, none of the long-range guidance (ECWMF weeklies or CFSv2) had anything close to such an outcome. At present, the steep hill for verification has grown into a towering mountain. By the end of this week, that mountain will reach heights that puts its summit out of reach.

It is. Things are falling apart more and more each day. Only a March 16-April 15, 1956 outcome would produce both the snow and cold he forecasts. In coming days even that won't be enough.

"Proprietary methodology" says it all. As such, it is not rigorously vetted. Without such vetting, it's difficult to know if it has much validity e.g., it's any better than climatology at the timeframes involved.

1918-19: 3.8" 1919-20: 47.6"

No. 1918-19 was a strong El Niño. 1919-20 saw a weak El Niño.

5 winters that followed <10” winters had 30” or more snow. Two had 40” or more (1919-20 and 2002-03).

It’s mixed.

Yes, that’s correct. In included it, because I started from the beginning of NYC’s record.

Morning thoughts… Today will be sunny but cool. High temperatures will reach the middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 48° It will turn milder tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 50.0° Newark: 30-Year: 50.4°; 15-Year: 51.3 Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.3°; 15-Year: 52.8°

The progression of New York City's record streaks without daily snowfall of 1" or above:

Here's where 2022-2023 stands following today's lack of measurable snowfall in New York City:

As had been a possibility prior to the big nor'easter, New York City picked up no measurable snowfall from the storm. Places less than 30 miles outside of the City such as Rye Brook saw the ground whitened. As a result, New York City remains on a path that could culminate in its lowest seasonal snowfall on record. After a blustery day tomorrow, milder air will return to the region. Thursday through Saturday could see readings reach the 50s in much of the region. Cooler air will likely return to close the weekend. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.76°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -6.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.616 today. On March 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.161 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 4.197 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.5° (0.3° below normal).

New York Botanical Garden (Bronx, NY):

With New York City likely to see less than 1" of snow today, the ongoing record without a 1" or greater daily snowfall will reach 394 days. The old record was 383 days (March 4, 1997 through March 21, 1998).

Borderline moderate snow in the Bronx. Strong winds are whipping the large flakes about. The day has the "look" of winter, but there is no accumulation.

That's certainly possible. It's not assured, yet. But the long-range guidance is generally in the 40s and 50s.

Some wet snowflakes are mixing with the rain in Larchmont, NY.

Right now, there’s only a low probability. The cooler weather will still be too mild for snow, as seasonal norms are now nearing 50 and will be above 50 in coming days.

Morning thoughts… Rain and snow will give way to snow. New York City will see 1” or less. Nearby suburbs could pick up 1”-3”. Distant northern and western suburbs remain in line for 4”-8”. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and perhaps lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 39° Newark: 40° Philadelphia: 41° Milder weather will return Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 49.0°; 15-Year: 49.7° Newark: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.9 Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.9°; 15-Year: 52.4°

A large storm will continue to impact the region through tomorrow. However, on account of a shortage of cold air and the storm's track and development, snowfall amounts in Philadelphia, New York City, and Newark will be less than an inch. There remains some possibility that New York City might pick up little or no measurable snowfall. The far northern and western suburbs will likely see 4"-8" of snow. Parts of central New York State, upstate New York, and central New England have a chance to see 1-2 foot amounts. Milder air will return to the region for several days following midweek. Afterward, it will again turn late during the weekend. Historic experience with very low snowfall totals through February argues that a very snowy March or big snowstorm during March or April are unlikely. There were 16 winters that had less than 8" of snowfall through February in New York City. Just two (13%) had a 6" or greater snowstorm during March or April: 1889-1890: 6.0" on March 19th and 1991-1992: 6.2" on March 19th. With just 2.3" snowfall through March 10, New York City is at growing risk of seeing winter 2022-2023 finish with less than 10" of snow. Since 1869-70, 82% of winters with less than 8" of snow through March 10 wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall. All such winters wound up with less than 20" of seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around March 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions have now given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -14.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.438 today. On March 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 4.200 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 4.310 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (0.5° below normal).