donsutherland1

The story of Winter 2022-23 in the eastern U.S. so far. More thunder than snow in Philadelphia.

I believe we will get a good example of where things stand this year and next year as the La Niña ends. I suspect that the outcome will validate some acceleration in the rate of warming with this year winding up among the 3 warmest years and next year probably setting a record. The warmth after 3 years of La Niña is stunning. Even a weak El Niño could produce record warmth as anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing continues to grow.

Antarctic sea ice extent is running at record low figures right now.

A lot can change on the guidance in that timeframe. It does look to get back to at least a period of seasonably cold weather as the month nears an end.

It will be tough. We'd have to go through all of January and then through the first five days of February to set the mark. It's not impossible, but a lot can change over a 3-week timeframe.

Yes. The record for JFK and Central Park is 332 consecutive days.

Today will become the 309th consecutive day during which Central Park has received no measurable snowfall. That will tie March 15, 1997 - January 17, 1998 for the 5th longest stretch without measurable snowfall.

Morning thoughts… Showers are likely this morning. A steadier rain could develop late this afternoon or tonight. It will turn much milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 55° Philadelphia: 56° Rain will end tomorrow. A seasonably cool weekend will follow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.3°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 39.8°; 15-Year: 40.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0°

Clouds will increase tonight as a storm moves toward Lake Erie. Temperatures could begin to rise toward morning. Afterward, that storm will head up the St. Lawrence River Valley. That storm will bring a period of rain to the region tomorrow evening into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely. Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the weekend. However, milder weather will follow early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +7.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.711 today. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.912 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

2011-12 had the October snowstorm that led to a less severe departure on seasonal snowfall.

I agree. In terms of warmth and lack of snowfall, 2001-02 was the worst.

So far, 2022-2023 is among the worst meteorological winters (December 1-January 10) on record in New York City. This should come as no surprise to anyone here. If it keeps doing what it's doing, it would join the ranks of worst snow seasons on record.

It's been really bad. A lot of winter-dependent industries are suffering.

For now. But beyond 10 days, model skill falls dramatically, so things can still change. It could turn cooler during the last week of the month. The magnitude is uncertain. The duration of such cooling, if it occurs, is also uncertain.

No. It just missed.

It's bad. Montreal reached 10° this morning for the first time this winter. The previous latest first 10° temperature occurred on December 29, 2015. Before that, the record was December 28, 2001.

2022 surpassed the ocean set record that was set just last year. Most recently, such heat records were also set in 2019 and 2020. Excerpts from a newly-published report: Driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, there is an energy imbalance in the Earth’s climate system. More than 90% of the excess heat accumulated in the climate system is deposited in the world’s oceans. The ocean heat content (OHC) influences ocean–atmosphere interactions by providing thermal inertia to sea surface temperatures and thus exerts considerable control over the world’s weather. Rising ocean temperatures bolster the energy exchanges from ocean to atmosphere, increase the quantity of atmospheric moisture, and change the patterns of precipitation and temperature globally... [G]lobal OHC has increased steadily, regardless of the status of ENSO, owing to anthropogenic influences. When considered on an annual basis, 2022 is the hottest year ever recorded in the world’s oceans. Its OHC exceeds that of 2021 by 10.9 ± 8.3 ZJ according to IAP/CAS data, and by 9.1 ± 8.7 ZJ according to NCEI/NOAA data (for the 0–2000 m water depth)... The complete paper can be found here.

It is. Hopefully, its days are numbered.

WAR is what "Mother Nature" declared on our snow season. WAR = West Atlantic Ridge

Central Park's measurable snow drought will reach 308 consecutive days today, which will rank as the 6th longest such streak. In addition, Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 7th winter to go through January 11th without any measurable snowfall.

Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the afternoon or evening following a variably cloudy morning. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 42° Philadelphia: 45° Rain is likely tomorrow night into Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.4°; 15-Year: 40.3° Newark: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 41.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 42.1°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with readings that are a bit above normal.Clouds will increase tomorrow night as a storm moves toward Lake Erie and then up the St. Lawrence River Valley afterward. That storm will bring a period of rain to the region Thursday night into Friday. Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the weekend. However, milder weather will follow early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +3.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.294 today. On January 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.870 (RMM). The January 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.673 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

Winters 1915-16 and 1916-17 were the first with two consecutive 50" amounts. Later, Winters 2009-10/2010-11 and 2013-14/2014-15 matched that outcome.

Least snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park): 1. 0.5", 1997-1998 (Season total: 5.5") 2. 1.1", 1918-1919 (Season total: 3.8") 3. 2.6", 1972-1973 (Season total: 2.8") 4. 2.7", 1931-1932 (Season total: 5.3") 5. 3.2", 1991-1992 (Season total: 12.6") 6. 3.5", 2001-2002 (Season total: 3.5") 7. 3.7", 2018-2019 (Season total: 20.5") 8. 4.5", 2011-2012 (Season total: 7.4") 9. 4.8", 2019-2020 (Season total: 4.8") 10. 5.0", 1989-1990 (Season total: 13.4") Most snowfall during meteorological winter (Central Park): 1. 60.9", 2010-2011 (Season total: 61.9") 2. 59.1", 1947-1948 (Season total: 63.9") 3. 58.8", 1995-1996 (Season total: 75.6") 4. 57.3", 2013-2014 (Season total: 57.4") 5. 56.3", 1872-1873 (Season total: 60.2") 6. 53.5", 1960-1961 (Season total: 54.7") 7. 51.4", 2009-2010 (Season total: 51.4") 8. 51.3", 1922-1923 (Season total: 60.4") 9. 45.9", 1904-1905 (Season total: 48.2") 10. 45.3", 1993-1994 (Season total: 53.4")

Today will become the 307th consecutive day without measurable snowfall in Central Park. That ties March 5, 1891-January 5, 1892 as the 6th longest such stretch. Winter 2022-2023 will become just the 8th winter on record that has seen no measurable snowfall through January 10th. Even as the measurable snow drought looks likely to continue through the near-term, the statistical probability of Central Park's having less than 1" seasonal snowfall is very low (a "near miss" occurred during Winter 1997-1998. The statistical probability of seeing no measurable snowfall is exceedingly low. Note: With the warming climate, the actual probabilities are likely higher than those reflected by the implied probabilities derived from Central Park's 1869-2022 climate record. For example, since 1990 the implied probabilities of no measurable snowfall in Central Park through December and January are 24.9% and 0.8% respectively. The actual probabilities since 1990 have been 21.2% and 0.0%.