donsutherland1

Under sunny skies, tomorrow will see temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -16.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.042 today. On May 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.778 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.955 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

Milder air will begin to return tomorrow. Temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty remains high for second half of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -10.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.122 today. On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.953 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.209 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be somewhat cooler days. However, temperatures will remain generally above normal through the coming weekend and perhaps longer. The duration and magnitude of this overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. The Pacific Northwest could see near record to record heat develop in parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the weekend. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a "coin toss" outcome. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +0.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.703 today. On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.212 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.554 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal normal).

Thank you, Rjay.

Tomorrow will be another fair and warm day. Highs will climb into the middle and upper 70s. A few 80° temperatures are possible. Readings will remain generally above normal through next weekend as the ongoing blocking dissipates and warmer air comes eastward. Tuesday and Wednesday could be somewhat cooler as a small area of cooler air passes through the region. The duration and magnitude of the overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +11.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.351 today. On May 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.555 (RMM). The May 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.463 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (normal).

It was a sun-filled day at the New York Botanical Garden with a high of 78°. The first roses and peonies are now starting to blossom. Azaleas and tulips are generally past their peak.

A warming trend is now well underway. The sun-filled weekend will conclude tomorrow with readings topping out in the lower and middle 70s lies ahead. Some areas could see the mercury rise into the upper 70s. Readings will remain generally above normal through next weekend as the ongoing blocking dissipates and warmer air comes eastward. Tuesday and Wednesday could be somewhat cooler as a small area of cooler air passes through the region. The duration and magnitude of the overall warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +16.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.001 today. On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.455 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.476 (RMM).

A warming trend is now getting underway. A glorious sun-filled weekend with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s lies ahead. Readings will reach normal levels by Sunday and then go above normal early next week as the ongoing blocking regime fades and warmer air comes eastward. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +10.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.156 today. On May 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.471 (RMM). The May 2-adjusted amplitude was 2.501 (RMM).

Temperatures rose mainly into the middle 50s. Tomorrow will be somewhat warmer, as temperatures begin to moderate. Readings will reach normal levels by Sunday and then go above normal early next week as the ongoing blocking regime fades and warmer air comes eastward. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -9.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.608 today. On May 2 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.497 (RMM). The May 1-adjusted amplitude was 2.369 (RMM).

Tomorrow and Friday will remain unseasonably cool. However, temperatures will begin to moderate. Readings will reach normal levels by Sunday and then go above normal early next week. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +5.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.102 today. On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.497 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.369 (RMM).

Clouds, showers, and occasional sunshine accompanied by very cool readings ruled the day. The cool unsettled weather will continue through Friday. Afterward, temperatures will trend toward normal and then above normal during the second week of May. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +5.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.218 today. On April 30 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.946 (RMM). The April 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.535 (RMM).

It is. The "normal" temperature has risen about 1° from 1961-1990 to 1991-2020. The anomalies are measured against an elevated and still warming baseline.

May has gotten off to an unseasonably cool start after a rainy end to an exceptionally warm April. Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. The cool pattern will continue through the opening week of May. Afterward, temperatures will trend toward normal and above normal during the second week of May. The duration and magnitude of this warm period could determine the overall monthly temperature anomaly. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around April 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +12.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.417 today. On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.328 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.393 (RMM).

Very heavy rain brought flooding to parts of the region today. LaGuardia Airport saw 2.75" of rain through 7 pm following yesterday's 2.49". The last time LaGuardia Airport saw 2.40" or more rain on two consecutive days was August 12-13, 1955. Some additional rain and showers are likely overnight. A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will continue through the opening week of May. Afterward, temperatures will trend toward normal and above normal during the second week of May. April 2023 was among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in much of the region. Preliminary monthly temperatures and rankings include: Boston: 50.8° (16th warmest) Bridgeport: 52.0° (5th warmest) Islip: 53.3° (3rd warmest) New Haven: 53.6° (1st warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.6° (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport 54.4° (3rd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.0° (3rd warmest) Newark: 58.0° (1st warmest) Philadelphia: 58.3° (6th warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0° (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.5° (3rd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +12.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.480 today. On April 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.391 (RMM). The April 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.761 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.8 -0.1 0.7 -0.5 -1.7 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.8

A storm continued to bring rain to the New York City area this evening. The largest amounts had fallen in a general area that included Newark and New York City. Through 5 pm, New York City had seen 2.32" of rain. That easily surpassed the old daily mark of 0.91" from 1909. At Newark, 2.89" had fallen, washing away the daily record of 0.82" from 1958. Two-day rainfall at New York City (2.65") and Newark (3.30") was the highest two-day figure since October 26-27, 2021. After a mainly cloudy and cool night with some drizzle and light rain, another moderate to significant rainfall is likely tomorrow into Monday. Coastal flooding could also be possible at times of high tide. A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains some uncertainty beyond the first week of May, but support for a warming trend toward normal and then above normal during the second week of the month has increased. April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +10.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.686 today. On April 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.760 (RMM). The April 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.846 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.7° (4.0° above normal). That would be the second warmest April on record.

Earlier today, Richmond received 1.76" rainfall. That broke the daily record of 1.34" from 1923. At 5:45 pm, heavy rain was falling in Philadelphia. That rain will overspread the region this evening. A soaking rain is likely tonight into tomorrow. Much of the region will see a general 0.50"-1.50" of rain with locally higher amounts. Another moderate to significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday. A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. Nevertheless, there are some hints that warmth could begin to return to the East while cooler weather returns to the West, as has been the case through most of the winter and spring so far. April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -0.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.064 today. On April 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.846 (RMM). The April 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.000 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (4.1° above normal). That would be the second warmest April on record.

It’s sad. He either doesn’t know what the greenhouse effect is/the properties of greenhouse gases or he is deliberately posting misleading information.

Earlier today, Portugal, Spain, and Morocco experienced their highest temperatures on record during April. The 102° high in Cordoba, Spain set a European April record. In the Middle Atlantic region, cool mainly cloudy weather prevailed. A cool pattern remains in place. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. Nevertheless, there are some hints that warmth could begin to return to the East while cooler weather returns to the West, as has been the case through most of the winter and spring so far. The region could experience rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday. April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +9.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.738 today. On April 25 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 (RMM). The April 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.000 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.9° (4.2° above normal). That would tie the record for the warmest April on record.

Today was a historic day in Spain. A new national and European April record high temperature was set.

A cool pattern is underway. That pattern will likely continue through the opening week of May. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. Nevertheless, there are some hints that warmth could begin to return to the East while cooler weather returns to the West, as has been the case through most of the winter and spring so far. The region could experience rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday. April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was +5.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.924 today. On April 24 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.999 (RMM). The April 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

From Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology: A forecast for a super El Niño.

An extended cool period will likely continue through the opening week of May. This sustained period of cooler than normal weather is shown on both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weeklies. There remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May. The region could experience some rain Friday night into Saturday. Afterward, a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible Sunday into Monday. April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth. The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was: Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest) Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest) Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest) New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest) New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest) Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest) Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest) Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest) White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around April 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer. The SOI was -9.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.871 today. On April 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.074 (RMM). The April 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.023 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

The lack of change in temperature is very impressive.

Yesterday, Portland set an April record and tied its all-time record for the smallest daily temperature range on record.