frd

Crazy indepth post, very informative from Mike https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1890569540448166149

Can you speak about any of your cluster analogs for later next week? Not sure if you can or not.

We all know there are several oppurtunities, keep the faith !

May not end as a Dewey Beach event, there is so much energy could be a rather massive extent to snowfall on the Western side. Could be an area wide MECS. Fits the indices. hope the northern jet doesn't screw us.

The 27 th seems to be a monster that is slower than the 20th and the 23 rd. I can't make it to the 27 th. I need a hit and soon.

That sucks plus, High pressure areas are not what they use to be.

Can you share or post images. Thanks

Appears this might be the first legit warning level threat for areas further North and Northeast this winter season. Going to see what the TPV and the severe - AO can do. Should be very interesting to observe in the days ahead.

There is another period of interest around Feb 24 th to the 26 th.

Placement of high pressure too far East at hour 186 , I thought we needed it further West.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1889876364268085283 Tomer states this "After the upcoming cold air outbreak, parts of the Northeast may be on track to end up with a rare trifecta of below average temperatures in all 3 winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb)." However, I am thinking in the snow department many areas of the country did not do well in the snow department. Lack of true bombs, Miller A storms, etc., despite a couple. Must be the Nina backdrop and lack of phasing storms and of course lack of a STJ. So much for climate change day after tomorrow storms.

Crazy cold the middle of next week, I imagine some energy for a storm as well.

Hmm, a beach-water snowstorm, a.k.a. beach and Tidewater snow event. Interesting that you do not see it extend significantly NE to graze Cape Cod. More or less another semi-gradient storm, maybe this one is beginning an evolution which rolled forward leads to a more regional wide SECS event near the 23 to 25 th time period.

Pathetic based on potential.

The suspense builds ....... If you build it they will come

AO going positive faster, wondering the implications if correct.

Typical issue, if not our snow climo would be much higher. Another way to miss besides the North , East and South issues.

Your not going to get a HECS without a parking lot in the Atlantic. You need everything to slow down. As psu stated before, in a Nina you are needing a super powerful vortex in the Atlantic to log jam the flow and allow storms to slow.

6 High pressure systems and a block keep it South, not surprised. But, yes, its one op model at 210 hours, but I have seen that track and tendency ( de-amp ) over and over this winter so far.

So cool, and fun ! A win - win. Well, a win for the kids and a win for posting the lastest maps. All good !

WOOF !!!! Bring it home psu !!!! I beg you ..... That is an Epic look .

And keeps the long range thread "HOT "

Your not concerned about the seaonal trends, and results so far ? Whether the blocking is TPV or -AO induced it is resulting in the same outcomes, snowfall favored South.

Dover, DE to the beaches have been the winners this winter so far, and that looks to continue today. Not getting my hopes up, so far this winter season DC has more snow than I do, so does parts of the deep South. Need something dramatic to happen, which I think does not happen even though I talk about the - AO The negative AO is jack shit without a juicy STJ You need that STJ to bring in the goods from the land of almonds to hit the our favored over - running zone. These lame POS waves with with over the top blocking are not doing it up North in this forum. Even with short wave lenghts and more seasonal warmth battling to bring the buds up North the jackpot snowfall zones have been South.

If that happens it is still a fail, and it further reduces the historical connection between favorable indices and measurable snowfall.