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Saw that this morning when the WPC made come changes that would effect my area. Not thrilled it is a weekend, but we will see. Mount Holly did not go into a lot of discussion about it with the AM AFD, as it is 6 days away. Meanwhile, parts of New England remain in an extreme drought.

Similar to last year, the Chukchi Sea presently has extremely low sea ice extent. . This my have some role in our late Fall weather. Another thing to look for regarding clues to the upcoming winter is what phase(s) the MJO mostly travels in during the month of October. As bluewave and Don S. have referenced there appears to be a connection to the following winter's EPO and AO state. From Don S. < In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. > Meanwhile the West Pac warm pool appears to be at near record temps. If you recall there was a study posted last winter https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 Here is a tidbit from the abstract. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2 (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018.

Nina or Nino simply does not matter. As mentioned before the small area of cooler Pac waters is nothing compared to the HUGE global ocean impact specifically the Pacific. And the CFS sucks. Even the monthly CFS is horrible until you get to the 20 th of the present month for the next month's forecast.

I believe there are -NAO cycles or periods when winter blocking in the NAO domain continued for several winters in a row. Lately as you know the -NAO during the heart of winter has been lacking. The real game changer for us and for a large part of the country has been the fast Pac jet causing warmth to dominant and responsible for a lack of phasing storms ( think East Coast , and Miller A s ) and the breaking down of West Coast ridging.

I know it is early, but I go with 2015-2016

Are we not in a new era ? In my opinion winter analogs present little value currently, and there is a tendency for the warmer climate to our South to be nudging North. Saying we are due for an average winter, or there is no history of something is not a wise train of thought. We could go multiple years with a few inches of snow or a fluke blizzard may hit us.

I see no real reason why it has to be better than last year. Could be another very poor winter if you are after cold and snow. Of course, as we have seen the last few years, there could be a fluke event within a period of cold that turns the stats toward , "wow that winter wasn't so bad,we got a lot of snow" , I give you 2016 for example. A one hit wonder, or fluke if you may. It would certainly appear more likely that if you want to venture a forecast going with a false start to winter seems a decent idea at the moment. I would think maybe something along the progression of last year. Whether it is in November or December, remains to be seen. Would have to think earlier versus later. I based this on upon SST forcing to our North, ie. less sea ice, and the still evolving and growing Nina. Whatever favorable elements can happen , would occur early in my opinion. There is talk among some mets, and seasonal modeling, that the coming winter will be back loaded. We thought that would happen last year but it did not , blocking came together too late and brought a cold portion of spring. In March 2018, that was back loaded with the mother of NAO blocks and brought us a memorable late period of snow and cold to our region.

2 weeks of winter in late November to early December then we firmly get implanted on Nina pattern and roast . Accuweather with similar thoughts. As you might have read they feel winter could come in early and then moderation. They are going with typical Nina Climo. Nothing we didnt know already.

BWI: 11/9 IAD: 11/7 DCA: 11/11 RIC: 11/10 TB: 85°

Underperformed here as well with , cough cough ....1. 75 inches. Bring on the sun and lower dews. My area remains a hot spot for enhanced rainfall. Hope that becomes enhanced snowfall in a few months.

The GEFS and CFS both keep the pv along the normal growth trajectory during the next 35 to 45 days . Just saying, because it means very little, but interesting to follow along and see how this turns out a month from now.

Same old story, as mentioned a bit ago that area of heavy rain meant business and has caused a FA NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0180.200929T1926Z-200929T2330Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle DE-Delaware PA- 326 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware... Southwestern Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Wilmington, Newark, Chester, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Delaware City, Newport, Arden, and Wilmington Manor. This includes the following highways... Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 2 and 23

Good comment, thank you. I over seeded an existing lawn. Height of grass should prevent wash away. I just worry, that's all. I also core plugged it too with a machine. From a weather perspective looking forward to the cool down with nice morning dew, and then a gradually warm up as we near mid month.

Pouring here. Not welcomed at all. Figures, after I seeded. This is a separate area of rainfall from that main area to our West. Current downpour over 10 minutes and would do the summer thunderstorms justice. Rain gauge at 1.10 ans radar estimate here

We progress more into Nina land out there.

Rational possibility. Also, on a related note, the average temps continue to drop at a good clip, as does the length of daylight. DST begins in about a month on November 1 st.

Latest CanSIPS To be expected in a Nina , whether it is correct not sure.

Warming would be acceptable without the crazy dews please. As you mentioned, warming seems likely as the EPS and the weeklies like the idea of moderation after the 10th, or so. Might be able to do one last beach trip. Granted surf zones temps have lost that mid summer feel, but will still give it a go if we can maintain above 65 degrees.

Hmm, maybe late season blocking combined with early season blocking. And, the positioning of the WAR further North leading to all that heat up in New England. ( East/ESE flow below ) Not sure honestly the reason(s), but very interesting stat. Some climate stations in certain locations in the US are totally opposite from this time last year, whether that is a clue for the future remains to be seen.

I share your thoughts. The last 3 winters did not show the real pattern until after December 20th. Actually last 3 years there has been a huge rise in temps after December 20th. Along with that the last 2 winters had record or near record high NH / NA snow cover early on, only to have that North America snow cover rapidly decline by mid Jan. of both winters to very minimal levels. ( Sorry Judah ...ah the poor SAI and total snow cover = no value ) So, as you mentioned, in this new day and age do not be fooled by anything that appears to look favorable until you measure a foot of snow outside your door. Hey, I am still open to all options, but I will keep the bar low and exceptions in check.

Seems we have been getting these Fall - NAO episodes recently, and then they vanish during the winter months.

I am sure we go dry for the winter. But, rather active again, Friday now looking not so hot, and another system early next week. From Mt Holly AFD Thursday night/Friday: Guidance has come into better agreement that a weak coastal low will form Thursday night and pass sufficiently close to our area to warrant appreciable precipitation chances. Consequently raised PoPs a fair amount this package (they may need to be raised further in subsequent packages), but given that the low will be weak and fast-moving expect rainfall totals will be limited to a few tenths at most. By Friday afternoon cooler and drier air will filter in behind the low and expect rainfall to generally come to a quick end. Highs will likely only top out in the low to mid 60s in most locations. Saturday/Sunday: Dry and seasonably cool conditions will prevail through the weekend with daytime highs generally in the mid 60s and overnight lows in the low-mid 40s. Some frost will be possible in the colder spots of eastern PA Saturday but more- so Sunday morning as the radiational cooling setup looks fairly good (at least 5 days out) Monday: Another shortwave and associated area of low pressure may impact the area on Monday but details are fuzzy at this point, with the EC/CMC depicting a stronger system (and closer to the coast) relative to the GFS. Medium-range Chc. PoPs seem appropriate at the moment.

Here ya go

Me as well. Seems the WPC shifted ever so slightly the heaviest Rains to our East. By a hair, but better than deep red shades.

Did you notice the GFS it is trending more progressive as well. Meanwhile, the dews here are insane. My location is in the upper 60's, but other locations much higher. Very gross for almost October 1 st. Looking at the satellite time lapse just now and seeing the back edge of the cloud deck rapidly advancing to the NE. Should go partly to mostly sunny later . Humidity 93% Wind Speed S 8 mph Barometer 29.91 in (1012.6 mb) Dewpoint 66°F (19°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 28 Sep 7:51 am EDT