WxUSAF

Drumroll please!
 

The 2018 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest winner is:

@2010 extreme!

@2010 extreme won with a total departure of just 9 days, @Cobalt came in 2nd place with 11 days, followed by @yoda with 13 days and @nj2va with 15 days.  

Our combined average dates resulted in a departure of 32 days.  

This is certainly the fastest green-to-bare tree progression I can ever recall here. Basically 4-5 weeks between noticeable color and generally bare trees. 

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

One of the untils just happened 

You’re getting about as cryptic as another one of our regular posters.

First freeze contest is over! I’ll post results later today.

26 IMBY and at BWI. DCA hit 32 and RIC down to 29. 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ens are a bit ambiguous with how things evolve late in the month and early Dec. Aleutian ridge and -pna is anti-nino so if it develops I'd guess that it will be temporary. Early Dec is still pretty hostile snow climo. Especially in the corridor. 

My wag is the pac will cooperate in Dec at some point. Second half of the month would be optimal. We'll know more in 2 weeks. 

Yeah, no way we have a ridge long-term over the Aleutians/Barents Sea given the Pac SSTAs.  So it's just a matter of time.  You're right of course that our snow climo isn't great the first half of December, but if the pattern keeps evolving in that way, I'd WAG that we'll have chances (insofar as a supportive long wave pattern) during those 1st 2 weeks and then probably some sort of reshuffle after.  Who knows though.  I still don't see anything I don't like for the winter as a whole, so even if December doesn't work out, let's all remember that's to be expected in a Nino winter.  

I don't hate the long range GEFS 500mb look, that's for sure.  

Scand/Kara Sea ridge builds westward into Greenland as a -ENAO and we start to get some troughing near us.  AO goes negative.  Only thing that's annoying is that -EPO/-WPO ridge doesn't want to budge much eastward of the Barents Sea.  

Last night's Canadian ensemble does start to do that, but I haven't seen any suggestion of that in the varsity models yet.  Hopefully the Canadian is just rushing it and it will eventually move towards the West Coast.  Around the post-Thanksgiving weekend/early following week, the MJO should be rounding the bend back into the favorable phases, which should encourage an eastern trough around 1 December.  How persistent that feature will be in early-mid December, assuming it eventually develops, is the big question.  

1 hour ago, mappy said:

oh wow, none of them have hit freezing yet? 

Nope. BWI did though.

Freeze warning up for DC, Baltimore, and SE burbs for Saturday night.

Based on what I hear about the euro weeklies, the pattern evolves as we expect through the first week or two of December and then craps the bed the last two weeks. But whatever, very low skill at that range.

Restrain your shock, but JB2 is all in. 30”+ at BWI.

https://justinweather.com/2018/11/07/my-winter-outlook-2018-to-2019-multiple-noreasters-and-more-snow/

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think guidance might be rushing the evolution of the pattern a little but I agree in the direction. Towards the end it's moving towards establishing the exact pattern features we would expect if this is going the way of past favorable modoki nino years. 

I really don't care about snow threats until we get into December and we have a more legit chance anyways. A great pattern before then probably gets wasted anyways.  But I'm not seeing the kinds of things that could set up this time of year that are a bad omen. I'm content to let this percolate and evolve the way it's going. 

Exactly.

Let things develop through the next 30 days so around the 10th we could have a legit chance at a snow event.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Deep Thunder lol

Thunder, feel the thunder

Tony Pann with the thunder

th th thunder!

Saw the D15 EPS from last night. Certainly seems to be evolving in a decent direction. Since tonight’s weeklies initialize off that, it will be interesting if our extrapolation is correct.  Combined with MJO forcing, seems things could get favorable sometime in early December. No way to know how transient a good pattern will be though.

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 and if the Euro/EPS becomes more enthusiastic about the idea.

You can peek at the d11+ EPS, but from what I see out to D10, the EPS is much less enthusiastic. I actually think the GEFS idea is a good one, just probably rushing it by 7-10 days.

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Haven't heard it mentioned but the 12z Euro and roughly half the EPS members seem to feel we see our first flakes in the air overnight Thur into early Fri .

No way.  Freezing levels are 7K feet or higher (mostly much higher).  I ain't buying.  

Hmmm...yeah, GEFS evolving in a decent direction around Turkey Day.  -WPO transitioning to a -EPO and the Scand Ridge/-ENAO working to split the vortex.  A -WPO/-EPO in isolation can be warm for us if it dumps a trough in the west.  You can see that on the GEFS at long ranges, but the -ENAO keeps things chilly around us.  Actually looks like a cold shot comes through around Thanksgiving +/- 1 day.  Let's see what the EPS show.  GEFS tends to go a bit cold in the long range in general.  

Interesting that the Euro has gone to an Apps runner next Tuesday now.  That's a big jump.  In either case, all the guidance suggests that we don't get as quite a cold shot as we though we might after that storm, but conversely, it looks like generally BN temps persist through Thanksgiving week now.  Watch DCA dance around a freeze...

12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Looking likely we will be able to celebrate Thanksgiving outside in shorts

#Shorts4Xmas

#Spanx4NewYears

Just now, LP08 said:

18z GFS trying to get a frisky for midweek next week.

lol it’s a nuke. Gimme that in another 3-4 weeks please. Tracks overhead, but dumps on Garrett county and WV mountains. 

Euro has mid-upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows next Tuesday/Wednesday.

And now euro goes toward the GFs with a total fish. 

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wonder what the euro seasonal looks like at h5.  That to me tells the tale

Check Hoffman’s post in the mid-Atlantic. It looks fabulous. 

BWI: 31.5”

DCA: 22.7”

IAD: 35.2”

RIC: 21.1”

SBY: 16.6”

MBY: 34.2”

Both GFSes took a step toward the euro with a coastal next Tuesday. FV3 has nuisance flurries in the VA   Foothills.

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I believe it is, it says initialized November so that should be this month's update.  And I thought it was a pretty darn good look...I'm willing to roll with that and take my chances.  

Absolutely. I wouldn’t worry about what it spits out for surface temps with that look.  That’s a Miller A bonanza.