WxUSAF

Euro was apparently nearly on its own relative to its own ensembles the last couple days too in regards to that storm.

Euro totally caved on the weekend thing.

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

sadly...850 temps are well below 0 but surface temps are 45 tuesday afternoon. #globarwarning

Yeah boundary layer is torched, but a stronger low could help that. Timing between the northern and southern stream lows as well.

Gfs wants none of what the euro has for the weekend, but is close for next week’s chance. 

Impromptu January contest:

Which is higher for each DC/Baltimore airport:

Days in January reporting thunder.

snowfall rounded to nearest inch.

Alternatively:

Rainfall rounded to nearest inch.

snowfall rounded to nearest inch.

2020 starting off the decade the way most of it will likely be spent: unseasonably warm.

If you believe the MJO forecasts, we get a strong wave that emerges in the torch phases in 7ish days, but the forecasts have it propagating eastward and it should reach phase 7 at least by the 3rd week of January. If that happens it would shake things up. Phase 7 in January is workable for us. 

8 hours ago, cbmclean said:

So, I am curious how JB is reacting to the models these days.

Looks like ignoring it and is back (continuing?) with the “it was cold today in Siberia!  Take THAT libz!”

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

 

Yeah maybe this is something to watch. 6z GEFS looks a bit better than 0z, so maybe a bit of a trend. Mean trough is broader and extends further east, with the EC ridge pushing more into the W Atlantic.

Looks more shortwave than longwave in that. The Pac ridge still supports the mean trough axis along or even just west of the west coast. 

Don’t know about after D10, but I like the Eps longwave pattern from D8-10 better than the GEFS. Deeper okhotsk low pumps a larger WPO/EPO ridge which gets the trough axis over NA better for us. Also a weaker TPV (and somewhat split) on the Eps as well as a stronger Scandinavian ridge. 

@Bob Chill, not sure if this is the evolution the GEFS is picking up, but I think there’s a window for frozen from around the 5th through the 10-11th. Seems the Eps and other runs today support a cold shot in that window. Best snow shot is probably as that cold air lifts out. Maybe a smaller chance on the front end of the cold air, but best chance probably at the end. Way too far out for any details, but maybe GEFS is showing that general potential.

Wow, that's a rough look at D15 on the EPS, @psuhoffman.  I just saw the D10 and thought that looked pretty workable actually.  

BWIs had 0.3”

Merry Christmas weenies!

Gfs and GEFS show that there could be chances after New Years. Not much more to say though. Longwave pattern still fairly hostile to any big storm, but should be seasonable temperatures so possibilities for smaller events might be there.

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good news is we don't have to worry about any weather tracking distractions this holiday. 

Oh good, uninterrupted attention to our families 

Yup, euro goes with the “fringed by 35F rain” scenario. Have that lead piece that cuts to the lakes strong enough to pull some cold air and maybe something like the euro could work. Think the GGEM did that a couple days ago.

31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I must say Wonderdog that I didn't think todays 12z GEFS looked all that troubling.  Not KU set up perfect but If I am seeing it right we never go much above normal temps and have windows below normal...that window looks cracked for NYE to maybe the 5th as WxUSAF says...since most of our winter weather comes in small windows most years anyway really cant complain...... assuming I am not off my rocker in looking at the most basic aspects such as 850 temp anomaly and h5 anomaly. 

GEFS is fair. After having the TPV wander over to Alaska over the next 5 days it then gets pulled east to Baffin Island by d10. Could be better, but keeping it over the pole or in Alaska would be far worse. Looks like it has some coastal solutions in the mix as well D10-12.  

As for the storm around the 30th, even if that storm stays south of us, our airmass is hot garbage so it could just make for cool rain. At least with the gfs solution, the storm is strong enough to pull south a nice winter airmass that potentially sets up a conducive playing field on and after NY.

17 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

The cutter is in the bag?

Seems that way to me. 

To respond to your post @Bob Chill, yes, seems that’s where we are now. Looking past D10 has been a fools errand this year so far, so we shouldn’t try it now. Right now it looks bad past D10, but maybe it changes. Right now through D10, it looks warm for the next 7 days or so, then maybe seasonable with a low chance for some winter weather through D10. Maybe something pops up on the progs on Xmas or Boxing Day. That’s when I’d start looking for something.

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d be very surprised if that complete loop took place. My experience is that those loops mostly don’t happen, and if they do, they quickly resume forward progress.

It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number. 

Looking at the tropical forcing forecasts now compared to 5-10 days ago, I think some of the issue is that the west IO standing wave was forecast to quickly diminish, and now that’s no longer true. It’s weakening, but not to the degree that was previously forecast. Similarly, the subsidence over the west Pac (where we ideally want strong convection) is also persisting into early January. The decline of the IOD says that that pattern will get shaken loose, but it seems to be taking longer than expected. I think the MJO phase 6 shown on those phase diagrams is really a mix of the IO standing wave in phase 2 or so and a little bit of convection that starts to fire over the maritime continent in the next week. 

40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Dude. Chill. He played with no signs of a serious injury after being dinged a little.

I’m not too worried about any of them with 3 weeks of rest ahead

Do you mean Ingram?