WxUSAF

That’s the new update?

Thats a frankly spectacular DJF mean. WOOF WOOF WOOF

Nino climo argues for December to be the biggest wild card and has the most potential for warmth and lack of snow.  Seasonal models seem to back that up. If I had to make a wag, I’d think that we have some favorable periods in December.  Whether they pay off is impossible to know. 

A zonal, more mild pattern is likely around thanksgiving week. Question is how long it lasts. MJO might move back into favorable phases around that time, which could shift a trough into the eastern CONUS by around 1 December.

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Trying to learn a bit:

It appeared to me that the 06z GFS was really close to a storm around Day 9. Would have a stronger vort pass done something? Here is the appropriate map from TT (I think). 

 

Compare it to the 0z euro which does have a storm. Euro has the trough axis much farther west, hence allowing the storm to track the coast. With the trough axis on the GFS, it’s a fish storm.

Euro and EPS have a coastal next Tuesday.  Too warm for everyone, even if the far N+W crew, but worth keeping an eye on.  850s below freezing for the mountains and foothills, but boundary layer is a furnace.

Really hope this active pattern is a sign of the future. Has the feel like we’re going to be tracking D1, D3, D5, and a D10 threat all at the same time this winter at some point.

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 The great snow pack in Canada will provide a great source of cold to overcome climo in this case. 

 

I think the snowpack in Canada is already paying dividends with how cold the progs look for next weekend and beyond.  Probably will moderate with time, but widespread 20s looks likely with possible 10s for the colder spots if we get a good push of cA/cP air. 

As for the winter pattern, I don't think we're there yet, but we're moving in a generally forward direction.  I like seeing the cold air intrusion forecast with the pattern being decent, but not spectacular.  AO still looks neutral-ish over the next two weeks and it looks like the Kara Sea/Scandanavia ridge weakens some. 

GFS is legit cold from this upcoming Friday through the entire following week.

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TBH, when dont they go bonkers.

For JB that’s true, but DT doesn’t do that for his seasonal forecasts at least. 

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I’m loving all these storms that are modeled to develop way down south and ride north. I don’t care so much about track right now, but it’s just great to see the very Nino-like activity of the southern jet.

Well said. Keep an active pattern and STJ going and it’s just a matter of time.

If a tornado is confirmed, would be the first MD tornado fatality in a long time. Maybe since La Plata? 

I’m f-cking stoked for my first happy hour euro day 10 blizzard.

Before and after worldview fall foliage slider I made.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?ca=false&cm=swipe&cv=44&p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&l1=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-31-T00:00:00Z&z=3&t1=2018-10-04-T00:00:00Z&v=-82.10924817370129,36.41477794953208,-71.64147473620129,41.82884044953208

Lots of leaves down from the wind yesterday and overnight. Going to be a lot more if we get some gusty showers later.

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

I want a Kit Kat made with three kinds of chocolate that has Reese’s peanut butter in between the wafers. Dipped in peanut butter sauce. Then again in chocolate.

Peanut butter and chocolate.

I’m fully aroused.

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

lol- I was surprised nobody posted the CANSIPS until I realized I was in the wrong thread. Looks good to me. Implies a general nino pattern and back loaded. All 3 months are acceptable imo. 

Yup and into March appparently. If it’s right in December, it probably ends up above average somewhat on temps given that 500 pattern but would probably offer a few chances if that ridge wobbles back to the west coast at times. 

25 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

BWI : 26.7

DCA : 18.4

IAD :  28.6

RIC : 14.9

Tie Breaker - SBY: 12.4

 

I like this a lot

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Placeholder/Early Thoughts

BWI: 79.7"

DCA: 61.1"

IAD: 83.8"

RIC: 68.4"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 1.3"

Lol

New CANSIPS coming in HOT

Raleighwx’s winter outlook:

http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

going with a generally cold snowier than average winter. Backloaded.

Pretty clear that the first 8-9 days of Novie will be warm despite a day or two or near normal in there. Than it looks like we get a decent cold push around the 9-10th. Corresponds with a -AO period it looks like. After that is TBD. But I’m glad that the guidance hasn’t trended toward a blue ball over AK. GEFS has trended toward higher heights there which should help limit the continent getting flooded with PAC air.

Are any of you also at HoCo spotter training right now?

I think if you focus on the 95 corridor and the cities where they are obviously focusing the message is 100-150% of normal for most of these public winter outlooks. Adjust as needed for your location with those percentages in mind.

I wouldn’t take these maps too literally. I think mets would be better served with text ranges because it’s clear they don’t (and probably shouldn’t) take too much effort to place contours. They are mostly trying to say “more N and W and less S and E” which is a obvious thing in our area.

jason dirty talking on a Tuesday morning.