WxUSAF

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Would anyone ever call for 25+ at DCA before the first flakes have fallen? What were the 09-10 forecast totals?

CWG went 150-175% of normal in 09-10. 24” for DCA and 30” for BWI.

CWG winter forecast is out. Slightly warmer than normal DJF, rocking Feb and maybe March. 16-24” for DC.

9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How’s the Euro look for the likes of you, me, and @osfan24? Think we can score 1-2? Will I see you at the top of the sledding hill? 

If the euro is locked in with that solution, we will likely see some accumulation. Congrats @mappy.

Just looked at the 0z euro. Holy cow it’s a stone cold assassin. Looks substantially colder than the GFS and makes the flip back to snow/mix Friday morning with the ULL pass. 

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 

Epic is right ,man! JMA is all in for dec, Jan and feb....good lawd. Maybe the eps weeklies will catch on sometime soon....

 

Tonight’s weeklies look much better per analysis on other sites. 

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad.

FV3 is very slightly colder than the op GFS at the surface but several degrees warmer at 850. I’d much prefer the op solution.

I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad.

25 minutes ago, H2O said:

46 and rain

#blessed

Happy hour is a bit faster with the ULL and colder in the low-levels.  Better chance for frozen.

Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now.  GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things.  

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i'm not ready

You got to be all in all the time this winter.  LET'S GO

This is helpful

That 500mb pass is really nice on the Euro.  Get that northern stream out of the way just a pinch more and if that slides another 20-50 miles farther south, would be possible to see a changeover back to frozen east of the mountains on Friday morning.  Could get some brief heavy precipitation that can drag down some colder air and get a few minutes of fatties.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

is it time for a storm thread?

I think you're in it

5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

10:1 ratios are probably suspect given mid-November Mid-Atlantic climo.

FTFY

1 minute ago, mappy said:

i dont think weathermodels.com has that option for the euro. unless i can't find it

either way, no way am i getting 7" of snow

lol Ukie says you get ~12" with 10:1 ratios.  

Kuchera (or Kuchera divided by 2-10) is the way to go with this event.  

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We've got the EURO showing 1-2" of snow for the DC metro, 3" for Baltimore, and 4"+ for western areas and its still fairly dead? Heck, I'm probably getting screwed in Charlottesville (to quote Jebman, damn!) and I'm here. 

Let's get the short-range thread rocking. 

 

I'm feeling optimistic that most of us see our first frozen precipitation Thursday.  But I'm still very skeptical of any accumulations outside of the mountains or maybe Hoffman's house/Mt. Parkton. 

Final spreadsheet

2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

Can’t see skewt’s for the FV3 GFS but looks a touch cooler and drier at the surface and a bit warmer at 850 relative to the op GFS. 

Lord almighty the TT snow algorithm is f-cked up for the FV3. 

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

same as 06z, warm layer from 700-850. sleety

GFS is probably a sleet/snow/snow grains mix to start with the dry air aloft, but goes over to rain fairly quickly. Probably stays rain/sleet mix for you through 18z.

I’m pleased looks like a solid chance of first frozen for most of the subforum.

Euro is still that much slower than the GFS? GFS has precip across the area before 12z Thursday.

ICON calculates snow ratios directly in the model, so what’s shown on TT is not using a post-processing algorithm.  It’s still not going to snow 8”.

It me

Heh...I find it interesting, and encouraging, that our warm up keeps getting muted/delayed.  Was looking like next weekend, which now has a major arctic blast.  Then was looking like around Thanksgiving, and now 18z GFS has a wicked cold shot on Thanksgiving.  10 days out so normal caveats apply, but 18z GEFS is BN through 384.  It's all a response to the now forecast -AO/-NAO.  

Bring

it

on