WxUSAF

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sort of. We need -1.25 monthly mean or lower for it to be significant. Data supports an 75%+/- chance at above normal snowfall and blocking to persist through Feb. The years that broke the wrong was had a terrible Pac though so it's not a slam dunk but certainly a good sign seeing a persistent -AO right now. 

Pretty clear phase change in the AO since around Oct 22. No sign that changes really in the next 14 days. Fingers crossed it continues.

I’m on mobile so I can’t show pictures easily, but look at the end of the GEFS and you can sort of see how we don’t get stuck in some sort of endless torch from hell. The features to watch are the lobe of the TPV near Kamchatka (which has only just started showing up on the GEFS at least) and the TPV that moves into western AK.  They drive the Aleutian ridge down to nothing and you see them starting to want to merge at the very end. IF the TPV over AK continues rotating westward and combines with the Kamchatka one, then suddenly that’s our new aleutian low, which drives the PNA back up and sends a trough back to us. 

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some minor EPS/GEFS support for the potential. 12z gefs moved ever so slightly better. We'll see what the euro/eps does shortly. At the very least the trend last few runs has been better instead of worse. We usually back into most of our events and a lot of time for things to move around. 

Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. 

Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. 

AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month. 

Huh...front end snow on the 4th cutter from the FV3. This weekends storm drags the baroclinic zone and cold air much farther south than the op GFS.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We'll most likely go through a "rough patch" during December but when don't we? lol. The last 10 days of the month is the beginning of our prime climo so if things are going to stink for a time then sooner the better. I'm not seeing the +EPO/GOA trough as any kind of ominous sign and thats if it even happens at all. 

All major seasonal forcing factors are working against a big trough setting up shop there.  So it shouldn't be long-term even if it arrives.  

But I'd like to get it over and done with so we can get some cold air and storm chances in the post-Dec 20th time period.  

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A trough in the GOA is highly unlikely to remain a constant feature so I'm not worried about it at all. I'm expecting the whole longwave pattern to roll forward over time and a +PNA (and hopefully a -EPO as well) to develop sometime near the middle or second half of Dec. 

We'll see what the EPS does today, but the GEFS isn't really moving the +EPO torch any closer in time.  Stuck around D13.  If we're going to torch, I'd rather we do it and get it over with, but I wonder if this will just get muted as we get closer in time and just end up with a couple day mild period and a reshuffle.  Weeklies will probably look FUGLY for weeks 3 and 4 tonight given the black hole over AK at the end of last night's EPS.  

42 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Hopefully the 18z is correct in the sense that we have weak to mod systems that slowly drag a boundary south.  Didnt work out this run but pressing cold with systems running a slowly sagging boundary can work out if timed correctly...maybe our best hope for the upcoming 2 weeks...

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All the variations = the same outcome. Not ripe and not a disaster. Flow is loaded with shortwaves so anything interesting prob won't show up until the med range. Not expecting much personally but at least it will feel like early winter more often than not. We've had quite a bit of December warmth since 2014. 

Yup.  Keep dragging the baroclinic zone south and hopefully we can time a wave.  Still think it's possible.  Good ensemble and Op support for a cold outbreak around the 5th and beyond.  I'd also refer people to HM's tweets this afternoon/evening about the strat PV continuing to get beat up and models underdoing the -EPO ridge.  Given the Nino base state and the GoA warm pool, I would doubt any trough there gets too comfortable.

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

LAMAR!!

Ravens have to keep him as the starter. They couldn't run the ball with Flacco. Now they are total smash mouth with the threat of the QB running at any time. He energized the OL and the run game.

They rushed the ball against like literally the 2 worst rush defenses in NFL.  I can't crown Lamar after that.  He did throw the ball better today despite some bad throws.  I still think Flacco gives them the best chance to win once he's healthy.

18z GEFS was improved in small but important ways in the long range. Less troughing in AK and more NAO ridging. 18z op did have  a fun active look. I’d like to see the euro pick up on the Friday deal. It wants nothing to do with it while the GFS seems to be giving us an improving solution.

I hope we can make a layup to get 1-2” of liquid in a winter frozen precip storm or two.

15 minutes ago, mappy said:

Winter cancel?

Just remember I cancelled on thanksgiving for verification purposes.

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really down playing the EPO ridge and breaking it down quicker then what we have seen setting up on prior runs. Probably not worth worrying about too much unless we see future runs start heading in this direction as well because it is just as likely to be an off run.

I can’t see the EPS past D10, but I heard it was similar? As of yesterday’s 12z at least.

Long way out obviously and it's been very clear that the models have struggled with the Pacific, but you never want to see BN heights in AK if you're rooting for cold and snow here.  

DCA low of 28.  Lol, weak sauce.  

Just now, Ji said:

What a Thanksgiving day massacre

It’s over. Enjoy the last cold day this winter.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I hope the folks that usually enjoy Thanksgiving with the windows and doors in the house all open, eating on the patio, and sipping tropical drinks are doing OK.

Worst of both worlds. Thanksgivings too cold and we have to cancel winter.

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It was still 40 at midnight here lol.

26 now, and most of the day it will be in the 20s, might hit 30. That high of 40 tho!

Midnight temps: 40 at BWI, 42 at DCA, 39 at IAD. Meh

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

How we watch and see how far temps can drop by midnight to limit the stupid midnight high temp.

Temp drop is annoyingly slow. Seems we’re running ahead of even 0z NAM and latest hrrrr.

How we watch and see how far temps can drop by midnight to limit the stupid midnight high temp.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

UGH!!!!! Always somethin'...lol Can we still hope for a 500-700 mile correction in the modeling (I assume it's far enough out to not rule out seeing that?)

Yeah, it's possible.  I mean, just scroll through previous runs of the GFS or Euro and you'll see giant storms forming, disappearing, and jumping all over at D10 leads right now.  Perhaps even more than usual for D10.  Odds are just tilted against any big wound up storm impacting us on the happy (cold) side with that jet blasting in.  As @psuhoffman said, EPS seems to pull the Pac jet back past D10 which should help that aspect out. 

Here's a good example of the problem of an overactive Pac jet in today's Euro.  We have a storm coming toward us that's trying to transfer to the coast because of the -NAO and 50-50 low, but this monster s/w crashing into CA gives us no help.  Need more separation between those waves so that ridging over the Plains backs up about 500-700 miles toward Idaho/Nevada.  

@psuhoffman totally agree that a weaker progressive wave is probably our best chance through Dec 5-7 or so. GFS and Canadian both have something like this today.

edit...FV3 too out farther.

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So I take it this would come down to the precise timing of those waves, then?...(And that "pac firehouse"...is that what you guys call a "hostile pac"?) And that precise timing of how much space is between waves...is difficult for the models to figure out right now?

Yeah exactly. I wouldn’t say the pac is hostile (blue ball of death in the gulf of AK is hostile), just not optimal.  But yes, fast flow with lots of waves makes it very hard for models to lock into a solution.

Just now, schinz said:

What is the best site to access the FV3?  Thanks

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