WxUSAF

The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us.  Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday.  

It's going to be slower, but I don't see any reason this run doesn't impact us with the way it looks through 150.  Heh...famous last words. 

Just now, purduewx80 said:

I've seen countless instances where a jet was not initialized properly until it was sampled on the West Coast...specifically while living and forecasting in the Midwest. Because of the way models are initialized, there is rarely going to be an instantaneous change in the modeling given new obs, which is why the trends are important to watch. I am curious to see whether the introduction of higher-res GOES-16 and GOES-17 data changes this.

Good to know, thanks.  Totally agree with your point on trends and GOES 16+17.

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not going to sweat a suppressed track for at least 3 days. It might be right but I'll save my worries for being on the southern fringe. The odds of improvement on a suppressed track in the med range is far higher than sitting on thr southern edge

Absolutely, especially if that suppression is due to confluence flexing its muscle.  If the shortwave turns to crap, that's another worry.  

6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Is SW strength something we generally have to wait until it comes onshore to determine or are satellites able to reliably pick that up and feed it to the models while it's still over the ocean? In other words at what point is the initial SW strength "locked in"? 

@Ian and I (and others) have had that conversation several times over the last several years.  I think the old "wait for it to get onshore" is pretty outdated as I think satellite obs are pretty damn good at getting that.  But it's still a forecast as far as what happens as it moves east.  How much it gets sheared, whether any more energy phases in, etc.  

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah caviman made a great point.  There isn't much history or support for major suppression for this storm, and climo says its a little early for suppression. 

My gut still worries about northern jog....or maybe that was the breakfast i just ate.

 

And I want to emphasize my 2nd point.  Last night's EPS had the confluence stronger north, which should have supported a north trend on the low placement. The fact that it went south a bit was due to the s/w being weaker and counteracting that shift in the north.  

13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Is there even an analog this early in the season for a suppressed STJ wave that dumps on the Carolinas while we get nada? I have to think we have climo strongly on our side here too. 

Even if it is within the realm of possibilities, I have to think a solution like the 6z GFSv2 is exceedingly rare this early in the year. 

Very true.  Climo and calendar just don't support this thing getting squashed.  If it's suppressed, it's probably due to the shortwave ending up drastically weaker rather than cold air pushing it to FL.  

In other news:

Just now, jewell2188 said:

Disappointed folks this morning after last nights runs. 

The runs where the two best operational models gave us HECS?

Hilarious seeing the GFS amped up and the euro weak.

Snow can keep bullseyeing Richmond for the next 4-5 days as far as I’m concerned. @psuhoffman fringed at Medium-long Range? Lock that ish up.

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

This is nerve racking...how many more runs before this locks in?

4 runs per day...8 day leadtime...

30?

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Only 1-2 hideous tracks so thats good. Some ok tracks with temp problems. Overall a pretty good run. Way better than the op at least. 

Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words...

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs back off a good bit on the pure southern slider solutions. Implies a shift away from big cold/suppression which isn't a good thing imo

Yeah i agree, although I haven’t looked at the closely, it seems that there’s only a couple cutter solutions? 

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s going to hurt seeing Chicago get snow as this cuts to Hudson Bay.

It’s a good lead in to the torch.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under.  Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. 

That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens.

Got my official spotter ID! 

And for other birders, saw a kestrel today for the first time in years. Used to see them all the time 20 years ago and then their numbers just plummeted.

Knew the overnight runs were good just based on the number of pages in the new thread

7 hours ago, mappy said:

 

Can we, uh, tighten up on some of the off topic, wrong, and/or extreme weenie posts?

 

Absolutely

Hell yes it is

Ok kids, preseason is over. Winter is here 

Track of next weekends storm is dependent on how the southern shortwave interacts with the northern stream. FV3 is an apps runner/cutter because it phases the two short waves. Runs that are suppressed have more confluence in the northern jet. What we want for a euro like solution is for the northern stream to mostly stay out of the way except for maintaining some cold air and confluence to support the high pressure. 

EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for  MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across  Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50.

Another friendly reminder to new folks that although some fun is good, it’s often better to post it in banter. If your posts disappear, take a hint.

KNEEL BEFORE YOUR KING