WxUSAF

I think any storm before the 1st is likely to be a Rainer.  Airmass looks like Pac garbage after Tday. Need a cutter or clipper to bring in some fresh cold air and set the table. 

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

EastCoastNPZ almost went reaper but somehow ended up getting snow and dialed back the "its over!" stuff

As long as every storm is a positive bust and we have a historic winter, everyone will be happy!

As a moderator, thank you to the sub forum for good behavior in this storm. Probably first winter storm I can recall with no hidden or deleted posts.

12-5-09 showing up on GFS ensemble analogs for D11.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The first week of December is definitely becoming a possible threat window. If he h5 look being advertised by ALL guidance is even close then we have a legit shot. 

No doubt. If I had to wag, I’d guess the 2nd storm in that week (if there are even 2) would be our better shot just for the fact of getting cold air in place. Normal highs in early December are still near 50 in DC and low 40s for you, so we still need a pretty anomalous airmass to get all or mostly snow. Need a fresh polar airmass. 

Wettest year on record for BWI after yesterday’s storm. Over 63” now with a month and a half left in the year.

I’ll give @EastCoast NPZ a pass for choosing the wrong side in the #WaronThanksgiving for the sake of Xmas decorations in the snow.

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample.

Freaking glorious 

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep. Wasn’t it just about 10 days ago that the prevailing theory was that we would be in a Ridge/warm period by now?

Not now.  This midweek looked cold from range.  It was this upcoming weekend and beyond that looked warm.  Naso much now.

1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

got a whopping 0.60" of snow and then the deluge started.  Not a good day, our thoughts two days ago were better than those yesterday.  Kind of a bust. 

Glad you got on the board!  

I think the CWG call was good.  Have to lean low given climo this time of year.  We don't get snowy busts too often, particularly at the low altitude/UHI spots in marginal conditions.

Euro still has ULL snow pass through for areas north of the DC beltway overnight.  It's been stubborn on this and given how it handled today, hard to write that off.  

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Major difference between western and eastern HoCo. Old Ellicott City has about 2”.. upwards of 5” at the opposite end of old Frederick 

I wondered about that.  Figured Mt. Airy area did much better as per usual.  

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Can a warm nose set up between areas like DC/Nova and jackpotville? It was weird seeing the reports of snow in DC (and my wife was sending me pics from NE DC where she works of snow on ground) at same time for about an hour that we were still rain/sleet up this way. Does warm air at certain levels work that way?

It can and a few model progs definitely had a warm nose to the east over central MD and the Bay while NoVA and the PA line stayed cold.  Looks like that verified.  Combine that with some more favorable banding in those areas and that's the result.  General 1-2" for PG/AA/HoCo/Balt City with 2-4" for MoCo/BaltCo/HarCo and 3-6" for jackpotville.  

5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Per CWG, DCA has reported 1.4" officially

Ok, now I'm fully dead.

I'm back in the afterlife.  

17 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Howard County got shafted. Maybe 1-2". Did we get stuck between bands? Warm air coming off of the bay? We had periods of moderate snow but it just didn't seem to want to pile up.

Yeah we did a bit.  PG/AA/HoCo/Balt City missed out a bit.  Best action was definitely in NoVA and jackpotville.  

Was all rain when I left Greenbelt to drive home, but still largely sleet at home in Columbia.  Roads in my neighborhood are a mess.

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It's an amazing look. We will have threats in that pattern for sure. I wonder if some are rushing it though. The storms in the 8-14 day will likely get forced under us and you never know but it's also possible there won't be enough cold to work with yet as the pattern gets established.  Not saying they can't work but I won't be upset if we have to wait. Climo gets less and less hostile every day also. But the best window might be after what were seeing now as such a pattern pulses and relaxes or ultimately breaks down. (Before the reload of course). Won't stop Ji from cancelling winter anyways. 

I think you're right actually.  I wouldn't expect a real legit chance until around the 1st and likely beyond.  That said, here we are today...

Looks like you lucky SOBs in jackpotville might avoid sleet awhile longer. Mix line washing out and moving east toward BaltCo/HarCo.

Sleet predominant again in greenbelt after rain.

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is the FV3 is the future ops?

Yes. Supposed to take over in late January.

GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's uncanny how well the euro did with the surface and mids. Nailed practically everything for most of us. The timing and location of the flip to sleet was forecast with near perfection. 

Yeah, it was fantastic. Even hinted yesterday at the 850mb warm layer that moved in earlier for the eastern area and then re-cooled. 

FV3 was better than the op gfs as well with the cold.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just over an inch here in Baltimore. Just the fact that we hit that number in November...lol

PG, HoCo, AA, and Balt City drew the short straw this storm it seems. But still way better than even my biggest hopes.

Sleet with a few raindrops in greenbelt. 

9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

This band coming in from the south toward DC... should we be expecting snow in the beltway? 

Looks like sleet for the VA side at least. Not sure for MD.