WxUSAF

@osfan24 yes, that’s my perception from Columbia. Woke up and had thunder sleet around 7am with 12-13” OTG. Precip from then through early afternoon was tepid at best while @Bob Chill and the VA crew were getting blasted. Then the afternoon was a legit blizzard for 3-4 hours.

Woo 47 instead of 50. #fakesnowtrain

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Great post.  I love what I see in the Pacific.  Where that Aleutian low wants to set up is money.  We have time to get the atlantic right, and even if we don't if the pacific cooperates to the degree it looks like it might, we can do pretty darn good regardless.  

I’m encouraged by seeing an active STJ and storms as we move into November. We’d expect that with a nino and looks like that part is occurring at least.

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Link?  Is he hugging the sacred IBM Deep Thunder model?

Tony Pann AGAIN tweeted chance of rain snow mix early Monday around Baltimore.  Someone sarcastic tweet a response to him.

We’d be jumping if this was a winter storm. Secondary low looks to stay alive now up towards Pittsburgh instead of merging entirely with the coastal.

Two months and 20F colder from now and today would be super exciting. High cirrus thickening up, light wind, and a big old storm brewing.

Tony Pann tweeting chance for rain snow mix in the Baltimore metro late Sunday into Monday. 

GFS and FV3 GFS have surface temps near 50 and 850 0 line a few hundred miles away. GGEM is upper 40s and similar 850s.

what the f-ck is he talking about!?

Registered for the skywarn basic class!

Fall color seems to have taken a noticeable step in the last few days. Not moderate color yet, but I think we’ve certainly left “spotty” color behind. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Given the height pattern all of these would be snow threats December to March. It's just too early. 

Violently agree.

Baroclinic boundary is more onshore this time of year as well which guides this storm inland vs a winter case where they typically stay offshore.

Good lawd give me the 6z GFS 78-108hr progression in 2-3 months time please. Textbook.

BWI hit 32 on the intrahour. RIC fell short.

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

He’s a mini JB for sure.  He’s good for a morale boost when every model shifts north 72 hours out and we’re left smoking cirrus, yet he’s adamant we see warning level snow.  He’s a weenies dream!

It’s weird. He used to be a super pessimist on snow. Downplayed several of our historic storms at short leads as I recall.

37 minutes ago, H2O said:

i thought that wet late summers into fall helped with tree color?  That dry was bad leading to leaf changing?  Guess I know jack squat.

I have no idea what’s the best conditions. 

Up near Bahstan (Jesus save me from Sawx fans) for a funeral today. Frost everywhere. Much more fall color than Home, but doesn’t look like peak at all. Pretty late and lousy year for color everywhere it seems.

Tony Pann was teasing this on Twitter. Plenty cold aloft. If there’s a convective shower, could have some flakes mixed in.

Low of 39 at BWI. 

28 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I figured Ian eventually left because he became Billy Big Boots and decided to stick to Twatter and take in the adoring fans.

Ian isn’t totally gone, just posts much, much less.

We’ve had good posters leave for over moderation (Ian) and under moderation (Mitch). 

48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

May be some mega busts here.  If you believe some of the models I'm seeing.

Yeah could be.  Don’t think anyone gets to 32 this week but next week is probably an even money or better chance.

Mostly well it seems.  Definitely had some germination.  We'll see how it looks next year.  It's all very long right now as I haven't mowed in a few weeks between waiting for the grass seed to grow and having some dry days when I have free time. 

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Did he moved North ?  I thought he was in your sub-forum area, like DC or Balt. ??

Yeah, that is sad. 

He still lives near BWI. 

Mitch joined Phillywx this month and has started posting there.  That makes me sad

34 entries this year.  Our average values are:

DCA: 11/17/18

BWI: 11/3/18

IAD: 10/30/18

RIC: 11/16/18

Tie: 4.03"

So a week to 10 days past climo for the most part.  DCA value is close to climo I believe.  Looks like next week has the first legit threat, particularly for the non-DCA locations.  IAD has 1.02" of rain to date for reference. 

2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx