WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Per weather.us, euro is still clearly the best for all of us. Starts as snow for everyone and several hours for from MBY and points north. I’d happily take it. Hope it’s right.
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All I can tell with TT maps is that it’s warmer at 850 at 12z tomorrow
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The kings about to pass his sentence. Then we’ll be set one way or another.
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12z GEFS is notably less bullish with ridging over the pole after Tday, but the pattern still looks spectacular. Builds the AO late in the run. But rocking -NAO and +PNA and clear signs of a busy STJ. First week of December should have chances.
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How about another coastal after thanksgiving @psuhoffman? Warm rain though.
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Without being a weenie, I’d say to ignore the Canadian (look how far northwest the track is compared to the rest) and weight the GFS thermal profile low relative to the euro and 3k nam. This is an interesting test for the FV3. It’s been colder than the op GFS on this storm so far.
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Between the forecast 500mb progression and signs that the strat vortex may get disrupted around the 1st, I think it’s fair to say that we’ll start December with a -AO and perhaps a strong -AO. Question now is how long it lasts. But another good sign that a blue ball of death can’t form over the pole so far to start the winter.
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3k looks rough. Enjoy seeing a few flakes and pings before the deluge.
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6z euro went toward the gfs apparently.
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With that advertised longwave pattern, I’d expect the op runs to start teasing us in the next few days.
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It does have bust potential, but I would go off our climo and past experience. Low level cold holds on longer than expected, but mid-level warmth comes in faster than expected. That’s a recipe for a lot of sleet I think. I’m thinking that snow may be restricted to your area and the mountains, with the rest of us just going sleet to rain. Hope I’m wrong and see a few fatties, but I’m leaning against it right now.
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I’ll eat my phone if I get 6”
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Thanks. Makes sense. Seems like we’re converging on consensus with the euro on the cold side and GFS on the warm.
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How does it compare to 12z?
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If I had to handicap it for MBY, I’d go with: seeing some snow or sleet: 90% measurable snow/sleet (>=0.1”): 70% 1” or more: 40% 2” or more: 10%
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Lucky for you it already is?
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Per other websites, euro soundings support 4-6hrs of snow near BWI.
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Likely for you, yes. Borderline for the M-D line zones probably.
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Ha that Canadian map is basically a weenies dream. Textbook.
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FV3 gets a stronger press from the cold high which looks to counter the slower ULL pass.
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Nice work, Matt (and Jason)!
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GFS pretty close to 6z. Maybe a touch warmer. Better for the far N+W crew because precip comes in faster resulting in more snow to start.
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DCA has precisely 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of recording 1”. BWI’s odds are probably a bit higher.
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You’ll take you slush dusting and LIKE IT.
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No. It’s just a downsampled version of the regular NAM. The 3km NAM is the only one to ever look at.
