WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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GFS has a cold shot too, but the day before and not quite as cold.
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Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing.
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It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show.
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In all honesty, if this was going into January or February 1st, that’s a KU look.
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I think any storm before the 1st is likely to be a Rainer. Airmass looks like Pac garbage after Tday. Need a cutter or clipper to bring in some fresh cold air and set the table.
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As long as every storm is a positive bust and we have a historic winter, everyone will be happy!
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As a moderator, thank you to the sub forum for good behavior in this storm. Probably first winter storm I can recall with no hidden or deleted posts.
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12-5-09 showing up on GFS ensemble analogs for D11.
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No doubt. If I had to wag, I’d guess the 2nd storm in that week (if there are even 2) would be our better shot just for the fact of getting cold air in place. Normal highs in early December are still near 50 in DC and low 40s for you, so we still need a pretty anomalous airmass to get all or mostly snow. Need a fresh polar airmass.
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Wettest year on record for BWI after yesterday’s storm. Over 63” now with a month and a half left in the year.
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I’ll give @EastCoast NPZ a pass for choosing the wrong side in the #WaronThanksgiving for the sake of Xmas decorations in the snow.
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Freaking glorious
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Not now. This midweek looked cold from range. It was this upcoming weekend and beyond that looked warm. Naso much now.
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Glad you got on the board! I think the CWG call was good. Have to lean low given climo this time of year. We don't get snowy busts too often, particularly at the low altitude/UHI spots in marginal conditions.
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Euro still has ULL snow pass through for areas north of the DC beltway overnight. It's been stubborn on this and given how it handled today, hard to write that off.
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I wondered about that. Figured Mt. Airy area did much better as per usual.
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It can and a few model progs definitely had a warm nose to the east over central MD and the Bay while NoVA and the PA line stayed cold. Looks like that verified. Combine that with some more favorable banding in those areas and that's the result. General 1-2" for PG/AA/HoCo/Balt City with 2-4" for MoCo/BaltCo/HarCo and 3-6" for jackpotville.
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Ok, now I'm fully dead. I'm back in the afterlife.
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Yeah we did a bit. PG/AA/HoCo/Balt City missed out a bit. Best action was definitely in NoVA and jackpotville. Was all rain when I left Greenbelt to drive home, but still largely sleet at home in Columbia. Roads in my neighborhood are a mess.
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I think you're right actually. I wouldn't expect a real legit chance until around the 1st and likely beyond. That said, here we are today...
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Looks like you lucky SOBs in jackpotville might avoid sleet awhile longer. Mix line washing out and moving east toward BaltCo/HarCo.
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Sleet predominant again in greenbelt after rain.
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Yes. Supposed to take over in late January.
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GEFS is spectacular. That’s all. Shouldn’t be too long before we have more threats to track.
