WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us. Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday.
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It's going to be slower, but I don't see any reason this run doesn't impact us with the way it looks through 150. Heh...famous last words.
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Good to know, thanks. Totally agree with your point on trends and GOES 16+17.
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Absolutely, especially if that suppression is due to confluence flexing its muscle. If the shortwave turns to crap, that's another worry.
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@Ian and I (and others) have had that conversation several times over the last several years. I think the old "wait for it to get onshore" is pretty outdated as I think satellite obs are pretty damn good at getting that. But it's still a forecast as far as what happens as it moves east. How much it gets sheared, whether any more energy phases in, etc.
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And I want to emphasize my 2nd point. Last night's EPS had the confluence stronger north, which should have supported a north trend on the low placement. The fact that it went south a bit was due to the s/w being weaker and counteracting that shift in the north.
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Very true. Climo and calendar just don't support this thing getting squashed. If it's suppressed, it's probably due to the shortwave ending up drastically weaker rather than cold air pushing it to FL.
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In other news:
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The runs where the two best operational models gave us HECS?
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Hilarious seeing the GFS amped up and the euro weak.
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Snow can keep bullseyeing Richmond for the next 4-5 days as far as I’m concerned. @psuhoffman fringed at Medium-long Range? Lock that ish up.
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4 runs per day...8 day leadtime... 30?
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Ok. The northern stream is critical to the final outcome here and its been the most variable and poorly modeled of all the major features going into this so far. We need it to supply confluence to support the high and prevent a cutter while not overpowering and squashing the storm. The good news is that it seems we likely get *some* snow in almost any scenario. So maybe we have some wiggle room. Given climo and the calendar, I think the most likely solution is probably some sort of snow-to-rain scenario with TBD amounts of each. But I also think a total whiff or a total warm rain cutter are unlikely. Famous last words...
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Yeah i agree, although I haven’t looked at the closely, it seems that there’s only a couple cutter solutions?
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It’s a good lead in to the torch.
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That 500 evolution is goofy AF. Good luck to us if that’s what happens.
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Got my official spotter ID! And for other birders, saw a kestrel today for the first time in years. Used to see them all the time 20 years ago and then their numbers just plummeted.
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Knew the overnight runs were good just based on the number of pages in the new thread
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Absolutely
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Hell yes it is
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Ok kids, preseason is over. Winter is here
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Track of next weekends storm is dependent on how the southern shortwave interacts with the northern stream. FV3 is an apps runner/cutter because it phases the two short waves. Runs that are suppressed have more confluence in the northern jet. What we want for a euro like solution is for the northern stream to mostly stay out of the way except for maintaining some cold air and confluence to support the high pressure.
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EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50.
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Another friendly reminder to new folks that although some fun is good, it’s often better to post it in banter. If your posts disappear, take a hint.
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KNEEL BEFORE YOUR KING
