WxUSAF

@psuhoffman totally agree that a weaker progressive wave is probably our best chance through Dec 5-7 or so. GFS and Canadian both have something like this today. edit...FV3 too out farther.

Yeah exactly. I wouldn’t say the pac is hostile (blue ball of death in the gulf of AK is hostile), just not optimal. But yes, fast flow with lots of waves makes it very hard for models to lock into a solution.

Tropical tidbits

Op runs are going to be all over the place for several more days still because of two factors: 1. Complicated interaction of the late weekend/early next week storm and where it ends up parking underneath the NAO ridge. 2. Developing pac firehouse into the west coast. Fast flow and lots of short waves makes things complicated. This jet is going to keep the risk of cutters around until it backs off a bit. We need need some spacing between waves so we can get some transient ridging out west to help drive something underneath us.

Hope you make it before all the food gets cold tomorrow!

HM’s talking dirty

GEFS strongly favor a TN valley transfer to SC/NC coast around the 2nd-3rd. Not sure if this is just their nondispersive nature showing up again to support the Op at 300 hr leads. Seems possible. But the setup is very nice, that’s for sure.

@C.A.P.E. Nice posts. Assuming the pattern for Nov 30 - ~10 Dec still looks this ripe in another 4-5 days, I would start getting my hopes up. It's really just an absolute classic MA snowstorm pattern. A bit of a bummer it's coming so early in the season because in another month we'd have KU potential. It's pretty amazing to see individual s/w packets on the GEFS and EPS in the Day 12+ time frame coming into the Pac coast and coming across the CONUS. That's a robust signal.

Yes. Tell them to dress for winter.

Probably a midnight high on Thursday near freezing for the airports. Looks like afternoon stays in the 20s. Do we get a -20 departure?

GEFS is ripe for December 4-5. Can see a southern stream shortwave enter CA and cross the country.

GFS teases big time from the 30th and beyond. Just a bit too suppressive as the storm from next Tuesday blows up and gets stuck under the NAO.

Can we not call it an arctic “kiss”?

TT is back up!

1.5"

Nailed it. wait what?

Ugh terps

Euro says upper 10s for many Black Friday morning.

If a storm tracks under us, which the -NAO should support, and there’s a high in NE or the Lakes instead of some damn northern steam low, than I’ll start getting interested.

DT starting to honk about the 30th. https://www.wxrisk.com/is-dt-secsy-sexy/ I still think the cold air is going to be marginal around that time so I’d lean toward the first week of December personally, but hey, I’m good with both working out.

GFS has a cold shot too, but the day before and not quite as cold.

Whoa, euro is frigid for thanksgiving. Like highs at or below freezing.

It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show.

In all honesty, if this was going into January or February 1st, that’s a KU look.