WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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You’ll take you slush dusting and LIKE IT.
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No. It’s just a downsampled version of the regular NAM. The 3km NAM is the only one to ever look at.
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CWG went 150-175% of normal in 09-10. 24” for DCA and 30” for BWI.
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CWG winter forecast is out. Slightly warmer than normal DJF, rocking Feb and maybe March. 16-24” for DC.
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If the euro is locked in with that solution, we will likely see some accumulation. Congrats @mappy.
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Just looked at the 0z euro. Holy cow it’s a stone cold assassin. Looks substantially colder than the GFS and makes the flip back to snow/mix Friday morning with the ULL pass.
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Tonight’s weeklies look much better per analysis on other sites.
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FV3 is very slightly colder than the op GFS at the surface but several degrees warmer at 850. I’d much prefer the op solution.
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I think it’s just the TT algorithm for the FV3. Don’t know why it’s so bad.
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#blessed
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Happy hour is a bit faster with the ULL and colder in the low-levels. Better chance for frozen.
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Euro/EPS has been sucking wind with the Pac for several weeks now. GFS/GEFS had a better handle for sure on that side of things.
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You got to be all in all the time this winter. LET'S GO
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This is helpful
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That 500mb pass is really nice on the Euro. Get that northern stream out of the way just a pinch more and if that slides another 20-50 miles farther south, would be possible to see a changeover back to frozen east of the mountains on Friday morning. Could get some brief heavy precipitation that can drag down some colder air and get a few minutes of fatties.
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I think you're in it
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lol Ukie says you get ~12" with 10:1 ratios.
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Kuchera (or Kuchera divided by 2-10) is the way to go with this event.
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I'm feeling optimistic that most of us see our first frozen precipitation Thursday. But I'm still very skeptical of any accumulations outside of the mountains or maybe Hoffman's house/Mt. Parkton.
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Final spreadsheet 2018 First Freeze Contest.xlsx
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Can’t see skewt’s for the FV3 GFS but looks a touch cooler and drier at the surface and a bit warmer at 850 relative to the op GFS. Lord almighty the TT snow algorithm is f-cked up for the FV3.
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GFS is probably a sleet/snow/snow grains mix to start with the dry air aloft, but goes over to rain fairly quickly. Probably stays rain/sleet mix for you through 18z. I’m pleased looks like a solid chance of first frozen for most of the subforum.
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Euro is still that much slower than the GFS? GFS has precip across the area before 12z Thursday.
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ICON calculates snow ratios directly in the model, so what’s shown on TT is not using a post-processing algorithm. It’s still not going to snow 8”.
