WxUSAF

Seems like last winter we were constantly teased by -AO/-NAO looks in the long range that never materialized. This year it’s -EPO that hasn’t materialized. Well, it did in November and that was it.

I’ll consider getting my hopes up for this weekend if things still looks to have a chance on Wednesday’s 12z runs

Occasional flurries while we were in Harford county today

Snow and sleet

Snowing respectably all of a sudden

Flurries in Columbia. Makes up for 9 days of tracking.

Just talked to my parents and they said it just started flurrying.

I just woke up and I already missed it?

We don’t talk about March 2001, @psuhoffman

Ack, meant 2016-17. Had 6.8” in 16-17 and 13.8” in 12-13 largely thanks to that mid March snow that was gone by 11am.

Things went downhill quickly this week from potentially waiting for an afc championship game, a medium snow/ice storm, and a great snow pattern after the snow. I still feel good about clawing my way above 2012-13 level failure, but maybe not my much.

Oof. Well, whichever of A, C, or D was rain was a nutpunch

B was my guess, so if not that, then E

27/10 at least all of my sleet pellets will accumulate

NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates?

Dunno. I think bwi and iad would be a decent first check on that, although the uhi at bwi and iad has clearly gotten worse over time as well.

It’s indisputably gotten warmer over the last 30 years, with the last 10-15 years really spiking. When a degree or two is important for precip type in winter storms, that matters. Everyone in the area has gotten a few ticks warmer, but the burbs had more cushion since they’re colder to begin with. Add in some extra help from the UHI for the areas inside the beltways and it just makes marginal events into white rain or plain rain. Unfortunately, the burbs are following along behind on warming and will also probably see marginal events slip away in the coming decades.

Euro a tick better vs 0z. More robust with that thin initial band that goes through early in the morning and then gets precip in quicker when it’s still cold later.

Gfs is actually pretty thumpy. Especially for C and NE MD.

Insane warmth, fog, and wind. Winter 19-20.

Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage.

Suffice it to say, the 18z GFS working out would change my outlook on the winter substantially.

As per usual since 12k NAM has always had an Uber wet bias and 3k fixes that substantially.

Ridge is slightly weaker on the euro vs 0z, so it’s a bit better. Just a bit better direction on the WAA precip and it would be 2-3” for MD. Just missed us and gets Philly.

Like everything about it screams classic I95 snowstorm and it’s rain to Scranton. I guess maybe that primary low starts too far N and erodes the mid levels before the coastal, but damn.