WxUSAF

@Bob Chill yeah a friendly GEFS run. Good look for our storms and for avoiding a major torch. Can easily see how that quickly turns into an aleutian low and -EPO. Just got to avoid the TPV turning into a strongly +AO.

Mean GEFS has a nice track for the 5th to our south. Certainly a cluster that goes into the Lakes, but it’s better than I expected. Lots of spread still for the 9th as you’d expect. On a side note, GEFS seems more dispersive so far this winter relative to last year. Not sure if that was a code change or coincidence.

FV3 takes over in late January. Early comparison of this years winter storms show that its outperforming the GFS in a few ways.

Much better high position and a stronger shortwave this run. Storms still there. Not much else to say on an op run 11 days out. As for the 5th, we want something closer to what today’s 12z Canadian has. A weaker more progressive wave that just rises the boundary. Or we hope for front end magic before rain like our storm 2 weeks ago.

I missed some sort of puppy joke

Worse than GEFS in that range?

I can't shovel wind @yoda

Pretty clear phase change in the AO since around Oct 22. No sign that changes really in the next 14 days. Fingers crossed it continues.

I’m on mobile so I can’t show pictures easily, but look at the end of the GEFS and you can sort of see how we don’t get stuck in some sort of endless torch from hell. The features to watch are the lobe of the TPV near Kamchatka (which has only just started showing up on the GEFS at least) and the TPV that moves into western AK. They drive the Aleutian ridge down to nothing and you see them starting to want to merge at the very end. IF the TPV over AK continues rotating westward and combines with the Kamchatka one, then suddenly that’s our new aleutian low, which drives the PNA back up and sends a trough back to us.

Was just looking at GEFS. Certainly not a slam dunk Chicago cutter like I expected. Cluster of weaker solutions that go south of us it looks like. Way out there, but good support for something around the 9th also, but looks suppressed. Certainly going to be cold from the 5th through the 12th or so. AO is also solidly negative for the first 11 days of the month.

Huh...front end snow on the 4th cutter from the FV3. This weekends storm drags the baroclinic zone and cold air much farther south than the op GFS.

All major seasonal forcing factors are working against a big trough setting up shop there. So it shouldn't be long-term even if it arrives. But I'd like to get it over and done with so we can get some cold air and storm chances in the post-Dec 20th time period.

We'll see what the EPS does today, but the GEFS isn't really moving the +EPO torch any closer in time. Stuck around D13. If we're going to torch, I'd rather we do it and get it over with, but I wonder if this will just get muted as we get closer in time and just end up with a couple day mild period and a reshuffle. Weeklies will probably look FUGLY for weeks 3 and 4 tonight given the black hole over AK at the end of last night's EPS.

Yup. Keep dragging the baroclinic zone south and hopefully we can time a wave. Still think it's possible. Good ensemble and Op support for a cold outbreak around the 5th and beyond. I'd also refer people to HM's tweets this afternoon/evening about the strat PV continuing to get beat up and models underdoing the -EPO ridge. Given the Nino base state and the GoA warm pool, I would doubt any trough there gets too comfortable.

They rushed the ball against like literally the 2 worst rush defenses in NFL. I can't crown Lamar after that. He did throw the ball better today despite some bad throws. I still think Flacco gives them the best chance to win once he's healthy.

18z GEFS was improved in small but important ways in the long range. Less troughing in AK and more NAO ridging. 18z op did have a fun active look. I’d like to see the euro pick up on the Friday deal. It wants nothing to do with it while the GFS seems to be giving us an improving solution.

I hope we can make a layup to get 1-2” of liquid in a winter frozen precip storm or two.

Just remember I cancelled on thanksgiving for verification purposes.

I can’t see the EPS past D10, but I heard it was similar? As of yesterday’s 12z at least.

Long way out obviously and it's been very clear that the models have struggled with the Pacific, but you never want to see BN heights in AK if you're rooting for cold and snow here.

DCA low of 28. Lol, weak sauce.

It’s over. Enjoy the last cold day this winter.

Worst of both worlds. Thanksgivings too cold and we have to cancel winter.

Midnight temps: 40 at BWI, 42 at DCA, 39 at IAD. Meh

Temp drop is annoyingly slow. Seems we’re running ahead of even 0z NAM and latest hrrrr.