WxUSAF

Gfs and GEFS show that there could be chances after New Years. Not much more to say though. Longwave pattern still fairly hostile to any big storm, but should be seasonable temperatures so possibilities for smaller events might be there.

Oh good, uninterrupted attention to our families

Yup, euro goes with the “fringed by 35F rain” scenario. Have that lead piece that cuts to the lakes strong enough to pull some cold air and maybe something like the euro could work. Think the GGEM did that a couple days ago.

GEFS is fair. After having the TPV wander over to Alaska over the next 5 days it then gets pulled east to Baffin Island by d10. Could be better, but keeping it over the pole or in Alaska would be far worse. Looks like it has some coastal solutions in the mix as well D10-12. As for the storm around the 30th, even if that storm stays south of us, our airmass is hot garbage so it could just make for cool rain. At least with the gfs solution, the storm is strong enough to pull south a nice winter airmass that potentially sets up a conducive playing field on and after NY.

Seems that way to me. To respond to your post @Bob Chill, yes, seems that’s where we are now. Looking past D10 has been a fools errand this year so far, so we shouldn’t try it now. Right now it looks bad past D10, but maybe it changes. Right now through D10, it looks warm for the next 7 days or so, then maybe seasonable with a low chance for some winter weather through D10. Maybe something pops up on the progs on Xmas or Boxing Day. That’s when I’d start looking for something.

Op gfs (and 6z GEFS at least) definitely show there’s a window for winter weather after the cutter around the 30th. It’s probably only a few days, but there’s a PNA spike, transitory 50-50 low, and the TPV over Baffin Island stays out of the way. Plus a continued active southern stream.

It doesn’t really happen when there’s a coherent MJO wave. Right now there’s not one though which is why that phase diagram looks that way, it’s trying to put multiple conflicting signals into a single number.

Looking at the tropical forcing forecasts now compared to 5-10 days ago, I think some of the issue is that the west IO standing wave was forecast to quickly diminish, and now that’s no longer true. It’s weakening, but not to the degree that was previously forecast. Similarly, the subsidence over the west Pac (where we ideally want strong convection) is also persisting into early January. The decline of the IOD says that that pattern will get shaken loose, but it seems to be taking longer than expected. I think the MJO phase 6 shown on those phase diagrams is really a mix of the IO standing wave in phase 2 or so and a little bit of convection that starts to fire over the maritime continent in the next week.

I’m not too worried about any of them with 3 weeks of rest ahead

Do you mean Ingram?

Or Ingram or Andrews or Peters or...

And now

Ravens look like the nogaps after a bad trip

It’s showing a pattern at the end of the run that we’re very familiar with over the last 5-10 years...-EPO/++NAO. Not much consistency past D10. Still shows the pattern reshuffle start around the 28th. That can isn’t getting kicked so far. Seems clear for now that we start purging the Pac airmass after that, but details still TBD.

Has a snow feel outside with the cold temps and high cirrostratus. But its not going to snow

Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS.

Looks like the agent of change this time is the strong ridging pushing onto the northwest coast. That starts D10 (Dec 30), so that’s our mark on the wall to see how timing may change. A few days ago, the pattern change agent was the TPV dropping south into Hudson Bay.

I’m sorry I can’t hear their whining over the sound of my snowblower. On topic, yeah that GEFS is back reminiscent of that look it had 72 hrs ago before it flipped to torch. But with most of the TPV over the pole.

There were back-to-back NESIS storms in late Jan. Feb had respectable snowfall as well.

HM citing the upcoming evolution reminding him of Jan 1987, which suffice it to say, is an analog that few here would complain about.

End of the run gfs eye candy notwithstanding, that’s a meager snowfall map east of the Rockies for the last 10 days of December.

Do it

@tombo82685 posted this elsewhere, but the ensemble means over the next 2 weeks are a reasonable match to Nino MJO composites in phase 6 in December and then phase 6 and 7 in January. Phase 7 in January is a pretty canonical Nino pattern in many ways.

I would cut the cord except for orioles. No streaming options.

Now here we go