WxUSAF
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Track of next weekends storm is dependent on how the southern shortwave interacts with the northern stream. FV3 is an apps runner/cutter because it phases the two short waves. Runs that are suppressed have more confluence in the northern jet. What we want for a euro like solution is for the northern stream to mostly stay out of the way except for maintaining some cold air and confluence to support the high pressure.
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EPS at 216 is absolutely classic for MA snowstorms. Ridge axis across Idaho and shortwave passing to our south with a trough near 50/50.
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Another friendly reminder to new folks that although some fun is good, it’s often better to post it in banter. If your posts disappear, take a hint.
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KNEEL BEFORE YOUR KING
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Was more speaking about a panel or two before that. But yes would turn to rain with that track. But the 500 evolution is sort of funky. Euro has nothing like that. Nor does FV3 really.
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Yeah, GFS is a hit. Ignore the bad thermal profiles. But it’s sort of a wonky 500 evolution. Still more panels to see, but the main southern shortwave sort of gets consumed by this bigger northern wave?
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It’s still a nice vort pass. I wouldn’t discount it yet at all.
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It was something else originally.
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Since you’re new, let me provide the friendly advice to post this type of thing in the banter thread.
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Storm for the 5th seems to be somewhat on life support, but it also wouldn’t take a major shift for it to come back and be a light event for many. I think the overnight runs were very bullish for the storm on the 8th-9th. 6z GEFS excepted. And more signs that our torch will be a transient mild or seasonable period that reverts back to a good pattern.
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Speaking of short relax period, tonight’s euro weeklies.
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Huh. I figured he meant December
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Yeah EPS nothing like the op. Good signal for a coastal. Between the GEFS and EPS, it looks like the spread is more of a timing difference than sorting out between cutters and coastals. EPS did follow the op on the 5th with a flatter low, but both are not far from a hit.
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Anyway, back to weather, euro manifests some sort of strong northern stream wave that yanks the storm on the 8th up to Pittsburgh. No other guidance has that. I’d wag that Eps won’t support this solution.
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@ravensrule please report to the long range thread. @ravensrule to the long range thread.
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Request violently denied
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No idea although I would assume the ensembles will also transition to FV3.
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Everyone just remember that the FV3 snow maps on TT are garbage before rapid uncontrolled pants tenting.
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I’m taking the 234hr panel of the FV3 somewhere private.
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Yeah that’s nice. GEFS totally followed the op for both chances so that sucks. And here I thought they looked more dispersive so far this year...
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Yup. Haven’t seen the long range EPS, but GEFS looks more like a -PNA and neutral to weakly positive AO. Bad pattern, but not a total toaster bath, and one that more easily reverts to a good one for us.
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EPS more robust than euro op for the 5th (but still pretty flat) and has a nice setup for D10.
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High isn’t as ideal as the GFS, but it’s better than what’s been suggested by the EPS and previous runs where the leading high is near Bermuda.
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Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO.
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Euro has basically nothing for the 5th, but a pretty good look at D10.
