WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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JB2 is all in on winter. Not overly surprising. https://www.justinweather.com/2019/11/26/my-winter-outlook-2019-to-2020-support-for-above-average-snow/
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Happy hour offering 2-for-1 specials on the @showmethesnow storm. Or is it my storm? I said I liked 3-5 December like a week ago.
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I’d be thrilled with 1” of snow. I’m still skeptical, but I’m starting to believe it’s possible. Let’s see a run like this on Thursday’s happy hour when we’re all drunk and fat and I’ll get my hopes up.
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Well it is until Sunday, then still does the capture and deform. Just a bit farther NE then 12z. Seems to me the front end of the storm is getting pretty well narrowed on options (although I still expect we’ll end up on the outside of WAA snow), but the back end and coastal transfer is poorly constrained.
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I like the timing of this run. WAA snow/sleet comes in after dark Saturday. Better chance to get on the board.
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Euro farther south with the transfer and a good ULL track, but still nowhere near the gfs solution.
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Euro a bit skimpier with the WAA precip than past runs, but does give many some Saturday afternoon snowtv
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Stop trying to excite me @Bob Chill! I’m trying to calm down by thinking very un-snowy thoughts like the euro showing the transfer over Portland ME.
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Give me the GEFS hr132-138 at peak climo and I would be FULLY...um...ready for snow? 990mb off OC? Drool.
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Ggem says no, but closer than 0z. Loses mid level temps before the WAA precip arrives. Gfs a smidge colder, so it’s frozen precip. Ggem then takes the ULL through PA so we get some backside flurries/rain showers.
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I think there’s going to be some bizarre divergence this winter between the gfs and GEFS because of the dynamical core differences. We’ve already seen that a bit and we’re continuing to see it in the strat. I’m really not sure how to interpret any differences either.
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Sober reminder here that everyone should have very low/no expectations for this storm. It’s way too goofy of a setup. Plus the gfs long range cold bias.
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lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted.
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More than a southward trend on the path of the ULL, the GFS has clearly trended to a weaker one. That reduces the ridging out ahead of it and makes for a bit less warm push aloft.
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I will be after mid February
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There it is. 10” again
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There’s a 1002mb low in the east gulf and a 1035mb arctic high to the north. I’m starting the snow blower.
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I had barely finished shoveling the last one
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5 offensive possessions. 5 TDs
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It’s like us getting a 10” snowstorm every week for 3 months. It’s so far out of my experience that my brain can’t understand what’s happening.
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My Baltimore sports brain can’t compute how good this team is
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Damn it chuck Clark, that’s 2 stupid plays on that series. Fall on the fumble!!!
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Acceptable first quarter. would be rough to lose Skura though
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I’m nervous about this game. But I’m nervous about every game. If they do lose, I think it will just be because the rams out play them.
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I agree with @Bob Chill that hoping for a snowy deform band like the GFS is currently showing for the NYC-BOS corridor is tilting at windmills. I’m not sure which of the WAA overrunning or the ULL passage is most likely to offer snow chances. Both are likely to be fairly narrow areas and the airmass is marginal in both cases. Today’s euro probably showed max upside. P.S. the track shifting a bit south certainly helps the WAA chances.
