WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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No, euro actually has snow showers for the far NW areas. WEDNESDAY
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Gfs has snow showers early Wednesday.
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That’s a REALLY nice look on the Eps long range. Probably best I’ve seen in the last 5-7 days. Seems what the models are most unsure about is where that NPAC trough sets up. Aleutian low or GOA. Difference between them produces a nice +PNA or a Pac puke flood. I imagine a lot of that is due to them having trouble with the tropical forcing, but understanding that is beyond my pay grade.
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Makes sense whoever you are
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Does it? He never posts a lot, it is thanksgiving weekend and he just posted 3 hours ago about East Asian mountain torque. I know last nights eps looked pretty rough after D10. 12z Eps looks nice at D10, so I’m guessing it probably looks promising for at least D11-12, but haven’t seen any of D10-15 to be sure.
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MJO forecasts are never great. There’s a bias to kill waves off into the COD when in reality most propagate through. What’s happening now though is the +IOD has generated a strong standing wave in the West Indian Ocean (phase 8-1) that’s confusing the MJO forecasts. Combine that with the cooler than normal waters near the maritime continent means that the early MJO wave death predictions actually aren’t crazy.
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Just got surprised with ravens tickets for Sunday! 40F rain...
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I’ll take that^^
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Everyone needs to stop being so selfish about spending time with family and post the damn D10-15 EPS.
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Should be bullseyed by Sunday
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Ooh..pretty ULL pass there! ^^
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Euro snow map looks a lot like the GGEM and ukie. Looking better that the northern 1/3rd of the subforum could be measuring Monday evening. I’m gonna do my best to slant stick 0.1”.
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Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain.
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Is the ukie snow from the ULL? I’m getting a bit less skeptical of some snow from that, particularly for @mappy and other jackpotville residents.
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Last 2 runs of the GGEM have snow Monday with the ULL for MD. Gfs has precip but the boundary layer is warm verbatim.
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No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.
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Midnight high! Getting prepped for winter.
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@Bob Chill just cashed in the entire subforum's We're Due Index for a quick trip across the GW Bridge. Thanks for nothing, Bob. See you in January 2023.
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EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way. Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole.
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Euro has 5 sleet pellets to start for N MD. But GEFS looks nice for the 2nd week of December.
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Pushes the confluence associated with the 50-50 farther west so it holds the cold air in a bit more.
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The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work. Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.
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12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow.
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What’s hurting us on this weekends storm (front end WAA chance) per the overnight runs is that the storm has slowed down a fair bit. The timing of last nights 18z gfs was sort of perfect, but it kept slowing down at 0 and 6z. Euro shows it too. That lets what meager cold air we have more time to retreat. Plus the WAA precip itself is looking skimpier.
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He’s never predicted below average snowfall in the last 6 years. Very on brand.
