WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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12z GEFS is pretty blah from a sensible weather POV, but has some improving action over the pole in the 2nd half of the run. Around D8 or so the 1000mb AO goes negative and then increasingly negative after into December. At 500mb it’s more neutral after D8 and signs the PV May rotate back to our hemisphere.
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Based on the Pacific SSTs we might not be in a Nino, but the atmospheric ENSO indices I’ve seen all clearly say it’s a weak nino.
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I'm kind of amazed how good the Ravens are. It's like watching a series of warning level snows hitting us and the ensembles showing a KU ahead. Just waiting for the other shoe to drop incredulously.
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With the way the last decade of Decembers have gone (outside of 2009 and 2013 maybe), the goal should be for 1-2 minor accumulating snow events and a monthly departure less than 3F above normal. And maybe not above 60F within 3 days either side of Xmas.
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December cancel uncancel? 18z GEFS brings back some +PNA/-EPO action around Thanksgiving. Honestly, always wise just to focus on the next 7-10 days and only pay a bit of attention to D10+. Easier said then done obviously. AO only looks to go increasingly negative after D5 when high pressure sets up shop at the surface (where the AO is technically calculated).
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What the models are changing over the last couple runs is the look in the North Pacific. They’ve done this a fair bit over the last couple weeks and most of the flipflopping is past D10. Conversely, with the trough out west, these runs also keep the -NAO going. But if that’s wrong and the trough does get dumped out west, then yes, we warm up. Trough west and -NAO can keep us somehow cooler than normal.
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Lol yeah, what am I supposed to be upset about with that run? The one day of AN temps next week ahead of a rainy cutter?
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EJ will be reaped by December 2nd
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lol weeklies
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HM’s teasing again
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
WxUSAF replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
You already busted at Richmond by three orders of magnitude -
Yup, GEFS mean definitely has had a cross polar flow look at the very end of the last few runs, with 12z being the clearest example. Got to keep the STJ going in tandem.
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Sunday-Wednesday of thanksgiving week is RIPE on the GEFS. +PNA/-NAO/50-50 and some subtropical jet action. Why can’t it be winter??
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Probably, because the NFL sucks.
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That Eps look a few days before thanksgiving is borderline pants tent...except November.
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Pouncey should get a fine and a game or two. Garrett should be out for the season.
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Potentially cold thanksgiving week if the GEFS and Eps are right with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck under the NAO ridging. And potentially a stormy look bracketing thanksgiving as well.
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@Ralph Wiggum yes that’s the insanely anomalous open water area of the Chukchi
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Fringed
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Seems more than a little coincidental that the Chukchi and Bering seas are so open and there’s a strong tendency for ridging there.
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Super look on the GEPS. Seems biggest variability in the ensembles over the last couple days is in the Aleutian low and associated EPO and PNA domains. Yesterday’s 12z EPS looked a lot like that GEPS plot, then it weakened the ridging in the west coast and NAO region overnight. But even in a weakened state, the looks are still good. They’re varying between “solid/decent” and “pants tent”, which is a pretty good regime to be in. I wish it was December...
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@Bob Chill hell yes. Ggem has it too FWIW. GEFS washed out. Damn I want that look even like 2 weeks later. Hopefully these looks are a sign of things to come, but I am cautioned by last year when we were getting great looks at this time, and it did even result in a KU that we just missed! Then it all fell apart.
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GEFS also says lol warm up
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So much for next week being warm per GFS. Not arctic, but BN for sure.
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GFS has a nice vort pass next Tuesday/Wednesday for the region. Mid levels are cold but boundary layer still says November.
