WxUSAF

Woohoo! Another 0.1”! Got to pad those stats!

Looks a little low for eastern Baltimore county and Harford, but otherwise quite good.

Awesome catch by Ian

Yeah, I agree. Definitely worth an eye. GL lake kinda sucks, but maybe we can get a favorable trend this time?

High of 36. Nice winter day.

Ha, exactly. We definitely don't have the climo of the cities and the airports, but we get fringed by the "N/W suburb" events usually. But being above the fall line, even barely, is noticeable in situations like this. We doubled BWI's snowfall and it's only ~15mi away.

Great thread! A lot to analyze in hindsight. I'm not sure any modeling system can claim victory for this event, but several did have some important pieces to add to the forecast puzzle. GFS was pretty bad overall... GGEM was the first I think to sniff out that the primary low would form along the SE coast and not be in the OH Valley and then jump to the NC/VA coast. Euro did overall a pretty good job being on the western edge of the guidance and consistently showing a lot of mixing, even when the GFS/GGEM were snow bombs for us. NAM did well even from long range with the very expansive area of mixing and rain. I'm not sure the NAM did well on the track in hindsight, but it definitely was value added. And actually the HRRR did surprisingly well from range with the WAA thump. NAM, particularly 3k NAM, missed that entirely even from 6hrs out.

6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday

Rest up weenies, because we're not done. Lots of chances on overnight GFS and Euro runs.

Latest LWX totals, including my morning report: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSLWX&e=202012171312 Only a few 10"+ reports. Seemed like the far N/W zones mostly ended up with 7-10".

12/16-17: 3.3”

Had a thin layer of snow on top of the sleet from last night. Storm total 3.3”. Ties December 2017 storm. 24F

Lots of sleet and maybe a few icy flakes mixed in. Fresh coating on everything. Measured 0.2”.

BRING IT

And temp finally has started dropping

All sleet now and a layer of it already on the cars

Sleet mixed in with the rain now

Just rain

That would be a little ahead of the CC mix line then. Interesting.

Ok, BWI just updated their snow total to 1.6". That's in line with nearby spotter reports.

How about a couple miles south of I-70?? On a different note, the airport snow totals are pretty lol-tastic compared to surrounding spotter reports.

Not sure. I'm not sure if the precip is leading in the better thermal profiles or if they are decoupled somewhat. Hrrr suggests they're somewhat decoupled. Wish I could see Euro skew-t's. But that mix area on CC radar is definitely becoming clearer as it moves toward the east.

Hrrr says final batch is sleet for me. Hoping those euro maps are right...

Me and the 18z euro

Some higher CC returns down near Charlottesville. Maybe the colder air sweeping in and precip there is sleet and snow?