WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Wouldn't say it went poof. It's weaker and more progressive, but still there. Basically went from area-wide accumulation to area-wide first flakes more or less.
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GEFS longwave pattern is pretty gorgeous through the entire run if you like cold and snow chances. Really hope we get looks like this next month and beyond. Eastern trough locked in with -AO and +PNA. And some hints of a continued active pattern. A move toward the euro solution for next weeks possible event as well.
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Yo Randy @stormtracker, clean yer crap out of the bus and get it warmed up! Euro snows us next week.
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FWIW, the good folks on that OTHER wx forum based in a SE PA city have a very similar view RE: neutralish ENSO, +PDO winters and snowfall. Near normal with better chance of boom than bust.
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Obviously it’s probably wrong, but it seems to have been doing pretty well of late relative to the gfs.
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Jokes are for the lolz not the cryz
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Judah’s GEFS snow maps are the absolute worst lol
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Don’t hate just because I got more snow than you last year
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November snow is so common for jackpotville they don’t even think it’s worth posting here!
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Euro brought back a little light snow next Monday and nobody posted it?
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Yeah, that’s a damn sweet H500 look. I think first flakes for many of us in the next 7-10 days is getting more and more likely.
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I’ve seen worse, but looks like stale cold air which won’t work in November (barely works in January). What’s nice about the Monday/Tuesday threat is a very fresh and cold airmass.
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Euro weaker and slower for the early next week event. Verbatim clips the eastern shore and Cape Cod. Still has the event either way. Damn cold period coming up.
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Yeah it’s had it for 2 runs. Gfs for a few now also.
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Gfs with a nice little snow event next Monday. Hoffman even gets fringed. Nothing like cold powder in mid November.
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He actually responded on Twitter to my question about the linear trend and linked a paper he wrote in 2012 on that idea. Haven’t read it yet.
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Wave 1/2 just refers to wave number 1/2. So a wavenumber one means that there is one wave crest and one valley as you go around a latitude circle. Wavenumber 1 typically has more amplitude in the troposphere and stratosphere. Wavenumber 1 forcing typically displaces the strat vortex off the pole, while wavenumber 2 deforms and can split the vortex. A combination of both is typically needed for a total vortex disruption.
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We had one last year around New Years, which seems like an ideal time to maximize peak climo, and it didn’t propagate downward and substantially change the tropospheric AO. I wouldn’t want a SSW in November or most of December, but anytime after that is good probably.
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The only thing I see in Cohen’s plot is what looks like a pretty clear upward linear trend over the last 40 years. Whether that’s a climate response or something else, I don’t know. I don’t think there’s been a comparable trend in mean winter AO state.
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Just checked out the free euro maps on pivotal. Wow, what a game changer.
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We don’t need a SSW anytime soon. Just keep the strat vortex weak and keep beating on it and that’s fine.
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RIC hitting today changes things. If DCA hits Saturday, @yoda and @mappy would tie. If DCA hits Friday, @MN Transplant wins outright.
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That was a very nice score to wake up and see
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STOP turning the damn ball over
