WxUSAF

Staff meeting at flying dog Friday at 6. You’re buying.

@psuhoffman that’s a nice look on the Eps. I like how it’s been fairly insistent on keeping the PNA positive. That’s definitely a look that could produce.

WBAL shows the RPM on the weather segment. Looks nothing like any other guidance. But snowy!

The consistent Aleutian trough and Scandinavian ridge is nice for sure. Blue ball near the pole less so, but it’s way out there. Verbatim that’s a pattern that could certainly give us snow with a few more weeks of climo cooling temperatures.

Friends, With winter around the corner and Bob opening the December mid/long range thread, we the staff want to make a few things clear. We’ve lost some good posters over the last few years due to trolling, junk posting, whining, etc. and this is an effort to stop the bleeding in that regard. So, to keep the signal-to-noise ratio high, we’re going to do the following: 1. All mid/long range threads and storm-specific threads will be more heavily moderated. This doesn’t mean don’t post useful questions, this means don’t whine about lack of snow or try and make jokes in these threads. 2. Normal running obs and banter threads will operate as usual and moderate only normal forum rule violations. Remember you can quote a post and respond in another thread if you just have to snark about something. Thanks!

This weekend is looking pretty chilly. Maybe not quite as cold as Wednesday, but not far off.

Euro still gives me 0.1”!! Snow train baby HONK HONK

I’ll definitely have an entry but want to know how much November snow we have first

RGEM has flurries tomorrow evening LETS GO

Not a flake on the gfs. Next.

Overnight runs were not enthusiastic about snow tomorrow. Euro still has a little for central MD, but the American and Canadian models basically have none except for the far eastern shore. 3k NAM has very little precip of any kind.

Snow on TV alert. Panthers at Packers

49-10 does not suck

I feel like I did see some chatter on Twitter about that in the last few weeks, but can't recall who/what/where. You could wag low solar for the 2009, but that doesn't jive for 2002, so... Every December has been warm lately and if the atmosphere is acting like a Nino, then going warm December is even easier. Question is whether it's wall-to-wall torch, or just averages out AN with some cold mixed in. Would be nice if we end November/start December on the AN side and then turn cold by mid-month when climo helps us more and more.

It was such a frustrating game to watch. The turnovers, defense getting sliced and diced, and just bizarre offensive play calling. Minnesota came out like it was the Super Bowl, PSU came out like they were playing Rutgers.

Yup. They've been terrible of late (see the predictions for this month) and were terribad last year when we had 3 months of KU pattern advertisements. Keep focused on the next 2 weeks and that's about all we can have any faith in.

Given that last December I literally didn't even see a flake of snow, it can only go up from there for this year, even if there are torchy days/weeks/full month. I had no expectation that November cross polar flow would lock in for 9 weeks, so not surprised in the least that's going to break down. But I like the trend to Aleutian low (also Ninoish) as well as the signs that the PV (trop and Strat) keeps getting beat up.

Webb's been plugging a warm December for awhile, but that’s because he’s showing that the atmosphere is behaving very Nino-ish, even if the SSTs are neutral/warm neutral.

Pulled off the rare midnight low

PSU with the big egg laying. Ravens better not follow suit tomorrow.

Seeing the 1hr time steps on the Euro, you can see that there still is a little wave along the front Tuesday which keeps the precip going as the cold air moves in and flips things to wet snow for central MD.

Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure.

GFS moved back toward that at 6z also. Better for @C.A.P.E. especially.

EPS disagrees FWIW. And Mike Ventrice notes that the Strat vortex will keep getting beat up