WxUSAF

Flagged as banter

The New England piece of the airmass is definitely arctic. Dewpoints below 0F is a classic sign of that. For us, we have dews in the teens. That's a respectable polar airmass, but nothing super special.

CAD being underdone is the one weenie rule that actually works for us most of the time. But keep in mind that’s for surface temps most, not warm layers aloft.

What if, hypothetically speaking, you were like 3-5 miles from the fall line and, hypothetically, at like 375’ elevation?

I’d say this 18Z Eps is the last run I’d weight as high as the Op. I’ve been saying 0z tonight is my benchmark and we look in tentatively good shape.

Temp down to 52. 20F to go!!

Looks like I need to measure a hundred feet farther north than usual to tack on another 10"

Yeah, not time to diagnose mesoscale features yet and it's hard with the Euro since we don't have skew-t's. Those seemingly inconsistent things usually resolve themselves. Either way, seems like we're generally in a pretty good spot for the CCB to rip. Locations farther N/E most favored. You and @mappy probably get smoked. @showmethesnow and @mitchnick's new house are in absolute prime position.

Need the GGEM's thermal profiles and a slower forward speed? For DC to verify WSW, there's going to have to be some CCB snow almost certainly. GGEM would nearly get it done with the WAA snow before mixing.

1989-90 waves hello

850 looks to be the warm layer. 925 and surface stay below freezing for the duration IMBY. So snow-sleet-snow, which is what I always expected. Definite banding signature on the back end around 6z that moves through to the east after that. But still a pretty nice front end before mixing for many...3-6"?

That's banding. Descending air on either wide of the deathband creates warming. Notice the very cold (comparatively) temperatures just east of it. @CAPE and @JakkelWx are turned on by that.

Me driving home from picking up my daughter at 1-115pm Then I saw the Euro when I got home Then I saw the CCB Wednesday evening into Thursday morning

If somehow that 10:1 euro snowmap verifies, that sound you'll hear at 2am Thursday is me running naked up and down Route 108.

Euro saves Christmas

Seems fairly clear to me the OH valley low is no longer any issue. We’ve solved that riddle. What’s left is the precise surface low track. And it seems to me that all these seeming big changes are just due to subtle differences in where the surface low gets captured by the upper level energy and how offshore convection torques things. The convection is going to remain a wildcard. The upper level part may get nailed down a bit more, but these aren’t radical changes by any means for a ~72hr forecast. Of course it makes a huge difference in sensible wx outcome to most of us.

GGEM does keep ticking west but it’s also hauling ass. Has a really nice front end thump but that’s most of the show.

GFS CCB NSFW

GFS UHI is always amped

HoCo bullseye. Lock it the F UP!

Had a little rain overnight Torch now. Sun angle is warm. 4” soil temp could fry an egg. Uhoh

Everyone except maybe the I81 crew should be rooting for a slightly more progressive solution. Gives us more snow with the probable added benefit of screwing SNE (sorry @WxWatcher007).

New thread...

Latitude and elevation are going to help, as always. @mappy and @psuhoffman are in ideal spots for the deform band as always. But yeah, there’s a risk for the 495 area that it translates farther NE and you get scraped but miss out on the nest. Let’s root for yesterday’s 12z euro scenario!

I’ve only looked at posts this morning so far, but seems the models runs are all bouncing within a certain range and we pretty much know what that is. I81 crowd probably is shellacked in any scenario. I95 crowd probably mixes in every scenario. Eastern shore down to RIC is mostly rain in every scenario (sorry friends). Everything I see suggest almost all of LWX gets a WSW. I’ll also say that I’ll take my sleet and rain Wednesday evening and say “thank you sir may I have another!?” if it means I get the kind of deform band that is being advertised.