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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The NAM doesn't go far enough out to capture the NW flow event yet. The other 12z models added to totals after hour 84.
  2. John1122
    Best wishes and hopefully they and you are back home safe and sound soon.
  3. John1122
    Euro is probably better than the other models for my area. Not quite the 20 inch bomb from a few days ago but a solid 2ish inches.
  4. John1122
    The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here. I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events. We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to. I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row.
  5. John1122
    This is one of the most extreme forecasts I've ever seen. Not sure how it doesn't trigger a blizzard warning. Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 45 to 55 mph increasing to 55 to 65 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Monday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 21 by 5pm. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 75 mph decreasing to 60 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Very windy, with a south wind 35 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  6. John1122
    GFS gives a very nice NW flow/back side event for the Eastern Rim, Plateau and Mountains, as well as parts of the E valley and SEKY/SWVA.
  7. John1122
    I didn't even realize there was a chance of snow tomorrow morning. It's supposed to be 33 here tonight but it's already down to 28.
  8. John1122
    Yep. The 50/50 was gone entirely that run on the Euro and it was a big ole nothing for us.
  9. John1122
    The strength of the 50/50 low will tell the tale on the upcoming system. When it was stronger the Euro bombed us, when it was weaker, the Euro blanked us. If it does happen and it's cold enough, there would be a heavy snow area that's virtually impossible to predict at this range because you have to nail the exact storm path to get it. It would be one of those 10 miles apart from bare ground to a foot possible scenarios.
  10. John1122
    Snow on top of snow in 1996. I believe this is also a major missing data period for MRX.
  11. John1122
    From the site Fountainguy talked about in the January thread. It's more accurate with some events than the NWS storm reports. Here is the blizzard of 1993 and the February 1998 events. I believe MRX showed something like 9 inches in Claiborne County for the blizzard. It's much more accurate for my area than most of the NWS stuff on both events. Especially since the official record shows a trace of snow total for the month of February 1998 for my area and Scott Co. Misreporting is why snowfall averages fell so dramatically.
  12. John1122
    A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??
  13. John1122
    I wasn't sure. MRX horrid record keeping means you never know. They list my area and Scott Co with a trace of snow total for February 1998. This is the Nashville NWS map and one from a news station in Kentucky. The one from Kentucky doesn't have its pink far enough south and west. The whole Northern Plateau was 15+ inches, the Nashville map cuts off just west of me. MRX seems to not acknowledge this event in its data but they did at one time in their significant weather events. I just can't find those any more.
  14. John1122
    Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown.
  15. John1122
    At the time, that was a heartbreakers of a system to watch and be so close to such a monster. Then it happened here a few weeks later and the power was off for a week. Still an awesome event.
  16. John1122
    No thunder but a lot of wind with this system.
  17. John1122
    This is false. GaWx has shown before using his records that the atmosphere reflects the phase, even when it is in the CoD.
  18. John1122
    I was off by 24 hours in my time below freezing. It was 108 here. 1 am Friday until 1pm Tuesday.
  19. John1122
    Those coastals get trapped and turn into 50/50 lows during the -NAO. We just didn't have one this time. The pattern broke down faster than normal too. Usually a block that delivers this kind of cold, delivers multiple shots. No go this time. We still have all our prime snow climo left. Doesn't mean we see another flake but I'll be shocked if we don't get a good storm in the area, even if it doesn't land imby.
  20. John1122
    I think down this way we want one good storm each year and get really happy with more. Imby we can go a month with snow on the ground but it's much more common to get snow that's gone 48 hours later. Winters for me lately have been feast or famine. Either well above normal snow or virtually nothing. The virtually nothing years are made even worse because they've tended to turn wintery in spring and be cold too late. Those winters also seem to coincide with locations around the globe that rarely see anything, getting unusual snow or even blizzards.
  21. John1122
    I live in a reasonably snowy area of the forum and my normal for December is 3 inches. Pretty much everywhere in the state that got 2 inches already are above normal for December snow. My average goes up to 7.5 in January and 9.5 in February, then 3.5 in March. March is a snowier month than December on average.
  22. John1122
    Certain parts of the forum, because it's laid out so far West to East, depend on different drivers for snow to large extent. Mountain ranges also significantly affect things. Our golden ideal is +PNA/-NAO/-AO. That pattern is more likely to promote Southern sliders that don't warm nose and get basically everyone from Dyersburg and Memphis to Chattanooga and Bristol VA. But there are other ways to skin the cat. The Pacific can drive the whole bus for us all, but especially Plateau and West. The NAO has a tougher time overcoming a hostile Pacific but a neutral Pacific can let it make hay. The Pacific fueled the extreme winter of 2014-15. That was very nearly all EPO driven. Those are still broad pattern drivers but smaller drivers ultimately decide the actual weather. That's why it can rain in a favorable patten and snow in a bad one. Give me a banana high in Iowa and Pennsylvania with a low in the gulf and I'll take my chances in any winter month.
  23. John1122
    The GEFS had a 127 inch mean in the Sierra's last night at 0z.
  24. John1122
    He's hanging out on the south facing side.
  25. John1122
    I've finally made it above freezing, 33. Spent around 132 hours below. Not the longest stretch ever, but still impressive.
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