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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I believe we are using a further upgraded version of the GFS vs last winter and it's doing miserably.
  2. John1122
    Ignore them and look out the window with how it's gone this year. But the GFS has been really really bad this year. 3/4th of its runs are wildly wrong but since it changes so much from run to run, it falls into being right at least a few times a week. Massive investments and upgrades and models have gotten better at seeing storms a long way out but worse at details. Even in close to storm time. The Euro is actually most disappointing in that regard. The GFS was never great but you used to be able to almost lock in a d5 event if the Euro had it a few runs in a row. Now they all miss from 24 hours out if it's regarding frozen events.
  3. John1122
    The 06z GFS is back to extreme winter.
  4. John1122
    The Ozarks are set to become the Sierra's of the East it looks like.
  5. John1122
    The Euro and Canadian maintain cold but not much winter precip for most of the area. Maybe something for far NW areas of the forum that run. I just paid an extra 50 percent on my utility bill and didn't have much snow to show for it from December. I hope that doesn't happen again this winter.
  6. John1122
    Another wave of moderate sleet as the precip is moving back into my area. 36 degrees.
  7. John1122
    Euro is a cutter at 162. Shocking as that is.
  8. John1122
    Didn't expect it, but getting heavy sleet/snow mixed. Likely will change to rain shortly.
  9. John1122
    The Canadian maintained the cold at least.
  10. John1122
    That was probably the worst run of any model all winter. Amazing that it comes 24 hours after probably the best run of the whole winter and from the same model. Raging +NAO and -PNA with an Aleutian H locking in the -PNA. But congrats again to California. They get swamped and buried again. Another 6-8 feet in the Sierra.
  11. John1122
    Here's how bad the GFS is with long range modeling. 00z last night we barely got above freezing from 144-300+. Tonight we don't get below freezing from 114 to 300+. The 1990 analog would be strong again if it's remotely right tonight, except this January will finish warmer than 1990.
  12. John1122
    It's crazy to me how we don't even remotely have "normal" winters any more. It's either 2x normal snowfall or virtually nothing.
  13. John1122
    Not surprisingly, the GFS is way warmer at day 9 than it was earlier at even 12z. Approximately 30 degrees warmer. I am now in believe it when it gets here mode regarding cold and winter threats. I won't be shocked if we are warm into spring, then we get some wet snow days in late March or April.
  14. John1122
    This frosty morning near Cove Lake State park on Highway 25w in Caryville.
  15. John1122
    There's an internet outage at the Euro headquarters and that caused it not to be uploaded from the model to the internet.
  16. John1122
    If, and it's a mountain sized if, the GFS by some miracle is correct. That would be a legendary stretch of winter weather we'd talk about for years. Snow on snow. Frigid temps.
  17. John1122
    Less ice that run vs 18z. Cold but not as insanely cold as the 18z too. I can do without -15.
  18. John1122
    GFS maintains massive winter potential but far enough out that we need to cross fingers and toes.
  19. John1122
    Getting some snow. Not much to speak of but in a winter like this one, every flake counts.
  20. John1122
    43 and foggy/drizzle here all day today.
  21. John1122
    89-90 is definitely close so far as an analog. I was hoping for 83-84. Both had super arctic outbreaks in December but both had polar opposite Jan.
  22. John1122
    Same here in January. Multiple days in the upper 40s to low 50s with misty/foggy weather even during the day.
  23. John1122
    We've actually not been in a La Nina pattern at all in January. We've been in a Super Nino pattern. Which is the absolute worst thing for winter weather here most of the time. The relentless extended pac jet firehose is why California has been snowed under and swamped all the way into Southern Cal. That's just classic Nino. When you see that happening we are always in for blah weather. Places that normally freeze in La Nina, like Montana and the Dakotas are all well AN for January. Great Falls Montana has been seeing highs in the mid-50s and are running 10+ right now. Rapid City, SD is +9. Bismark ND is AN for January. It looks like that pattern is finally set to end but we are still in a cutter/even if it doesn't cut there's not cold pattern. Which also reminds me of El Nino weather from a few years ago when we kept getting winter rain storms with Miller A type tracks. The only thing not really happening on the typical El Nino map below in January is we are slightly AN on precip so far. But in strong Nino's I think AN precip is more common.
  24. John1122
    Looks like cutter to possibly snow showery/clipper type weather coming on the GFS. A few years ago I got to like 11 inches of snow an inch at a time before a nice event happened. I don't remember the year right now but this one might be similar.
  25. John1122
    The Euro went from off Myrtle Beach to off Monteagle in 24 hours. I believe it did that around Christmas too and then crashed back, not enough to matter for most of us, but some.
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