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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  2. John1122
    Played pretty well considering. Had Azabuike not been allowed to commit about 40 fouls we might have even won the game.
  3. John1122
    Tennessee is giving is giving us the d9-11 -EPO look right now.
  4. John1122
    Winters have become like this Kansas game. It goes okay early and you get excited. Then it just inevitably grinds you down.
  5. John1122
    Member 18 was no shrinking violet itself.
  6. John1122
    Had quite a shake from that earthquake. That was the 2nd one in almost the exact same spot in as many days.
  7. John1122
    That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.
  8. John1122
    Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.
  9. John1122
    I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.
  10. John1122
    There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee.
  11. John1122
    My snow depth on the 23rd is 24 inches on member 50, dang compacting.
  12. John1122
    I could live with that! I'm going to start getting bread and milk now.
  13. John1122
    2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.
  14. John1122
    00z GFS.
  15. John1122
    Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours.
  16. John1122
    .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip.
  17. John1122
    If the 1954 connection continues into 1955 we may be in luck. January started warm that year. Another 70 in Knoxville in the first week of the month. The second half turned cold and there was a big snow event in the 3rd week of the month. February was up and down with another decent event during the month.
  18. John1122
    Yes, that's what happened here a week later. Power line snapping cement with 2 inch per hour rates for 8+ hours. They literally record 3 to 5 inches for 4 straight days at Tri on the official record. That's a big part of why the extremely low snowfall averages are off in our region. Extremely poor quality control. You can't have a remotely accurate 30 year average when you're missing the biggest events of the timeframe. After looking it adds up to 17.6 falling at Tri airport.
  19. John1122
    It's not right and the maps that accompany them are honestly laughable. As I mentioned, Tri airport goes from 0 snow depth to 13 inches depth on February 2nd-3rd 1996 but has M for snowfall so they don't include it. February 1998, no clue how they missed it. I don't remember it happening how its recorded at Tri, but amounts between 3.4-5.7 inches are recorded over a 4 day span, with something like 18.2 inches falling. But I guess they aren't counting it as one event? No idea honestly. I thought it was a dynamic cooling event that all fell in a shorter time. The Plateau had one a week later with 10-25 inches.
  20. John1122
    Heavy rain and frequent thunder here. Very windy earlier, but it's died down some in the storm.
  21. John1122
    Thundering frequently. I expect flakes go fly soon.
  22. John1122
    December 11th and I've passed last year for snow. 6.7 inches already.
  23. John1122
    The Euro pulled that last year too on the OP. It had me in a 36 inch bullseye days before the storm. I believe I got less than 2 inches.
  24. John1122
    5 years ago if models were showing what they are now under 100 hours out, I'd be 90 percent sold that we were going to get accumulating snow. These past two years have made me believe its 90/10 in the no snow direction regardless of what models spit out within even 72 hours of an event.
  25. John1122
    2, 11, 18, 27 and 40 were also pretty healthy for parts of the forum area. 11 dropped 10-13 inches in Memphis/East Arkansas. 28, I admit, would make me pretty happy since it gave me about 2 feet. Fairly encouraging that there are very few blanks in the 50 members. Quite a few show at least an inch for a large amount of the forum area, a good number in the 1-3 inch range as well.
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