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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Are you implying I am cherry picking model runs?
  2. John1122
    Ugly GFS trend this am as well. Mon 6z D12.5 Tues 6z D11.5 Wed 6z D10.5
  3. John1122
    Euro Trend. Mon D10 Tues D9 Wed D8 What looked to be a 3-4 day cool shot looks more like a 12-18 hour one at this point, as we warm back to AN after spending 2-7 mostly BN and there's not a lot of BN 2m in the lower 48 or Southern Canada at D 10. BN 850s are more widespread, but sadly we don't live at 850 unless you're in Western NC or the caretaker at LeConte.
  4. John1122
    From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold.
  5. John1122
    Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level. Euro Ens GFSENS Euro Op GFS OP
  6. John1122
    Unfortunately what looked like favorable times have started to fade. The GEFS is clinging to Phase 3 still, but it's on an island. A week ago things looked much better, seeing the Euro creeping it into Phase 4 is tough.
  7. John1122
    No apologies needed. Unfortunately the GFS has warmed up late the last several runs, which is a trend, and the SE ridge returning on both models is unfortunate. Feb 6th-10th we may get lucky, but if that warmth comes back after like it's being shown, we will probably be looking at late February to turn things around at the earliest, and even that's a crapshoot, since the Euro actually has the MJO climbing into Phase 4 by the 10th. By then we are in bowling ball season, where you hope you score with a ULL or some freak event like the blizzard if you don't live at elevation.
  8. John1122
    Even with that look on the Euro at D10, the air mass is already moderating. It's been verifying about -2 D6-10 this winter, which would mean it's probably going to be basically normal. At this point it appears the SE ridge is on the EPS and GEFS with a displaced -EPO that allows for a western trough.
  9. John1122
    It has nothing to do with living any dying with every model run. We are in a hyper warm base state and the pattern for the last 4 winters have mostly stayed there outside of a brief period in 2018 when we had the cold dry weather. No drivers for cold here appear to be trending favorably in the longer range especially with the MJO looking to stay in the 4 or 5 areas even if at low amplitude. The GEFS looks opposite of the OP with the EPO, but due to it's position it also allows the SE Ridge to pop. Unfortunately the GEFS has been verifying about 6 degrees too cold in the LR. Meaning it's almost always too cold which leads to it's extreme snow means that never seem to happen. It's also popped a -EPO about 40 times this winter and I think it's not verified yet on that. We all know that any model that shows a -NAO is a fairy tale too. But that massive +NAO on the GFS wouldn't be a surprise at all. These are the unfortunate realities of the GEFS D6-10 and 11-15 the last few months. Which means the long range cold that crops up there is mostly fools gold this winter. The Euro OP beats all models by far D6-10, including beating it's ensembles and it's still verifying 2 degrees or so to cold D6-10. So when the GFSENS are showing us at -1 in day 11-15, it's probably going to verify at +3-5 degrees. I shudder to think how warm we may be if the GFS is right, and it's better day 11-15 than it's Ens on temperature but still verifies too cold by a few degrees the last 90 days.
  10. John1122
    Unfortunately the trends aren't great and the season is slipping by fast. I'd say any sustained winter pattern isn't going to happen at this point, our best chance is getting one of those random quick hitters that will likely be melted off within 48 hours. The MJO, except on the GEFS, is staying in unfavorable locations now, never leaving the right side on most modeling. The GEFS has been heading right with it itself, it was low amp 8-1-2-3 recently, now it's middle of the C.O.D into 3. 3 is good for winter hear but it's on an island at this point. Other modeling seems to have it in the C.O.D of 4-5, which are not good for us. The GFS keeps throwing out big fantasy storms every other run, but so far it's verification rate on them this year is 0.00 percent. We probably have to score something between February 6th and 10th as we get a couple of cold days in that time frame. If we torch up again beyond that, we will have burned away most of low elevation winter. This is not what you want to see unless you want some February severe possibilities. -PNA/+EPO/+AO/+NAO with the MJO heading towards phase 4 even on the GFS suite by this time. This is a repeat of the pattern that torched us the first week or two of January. Hopefully it's wildly wrong, but it's handled warmth much better than cold this year.
  11. John1122
    Not surprisingly, the Euro was much warmer vs the 12z run at D9/10. Canada is cold but there's no penetration into the upper midwest that run so our cold source is 10+ degrees warmer than 12z today so we basically get down to near normal. The Euro shows a -10 BN over Nashville the morning of the 7th. But it shows a 2m temp of 24 there during that frame. I believe Nashville's normal low is 28 around this time frame. So the -10 may be a little bit overdone on the anomaly map. But even that is brief, afternoon temp hit the 40s. The western ridge is south of the PNA region and the heights are lower in Alaska which once again just means the air comes off the Pacific instead of across the pole. GEFS is awful. Western trough/SE ridge. GFS op will have spring flowers in bloom late in the run. I'm pretty sure if that takes place into mid February, winter is basically done but we will see if we can get lucky.
  12. John1122
    Trends have gotten worse for the event 48-60 hours from now. Another decent track but elevation snow system. SWVa might get an inch or two. Looking tough for the rest of us below 2500 feet. January is going to close out as one of the worst winter months in the entire history of the sub forum for those who like cold and snow. Who knew it could be that much worse than the putrid 2019.
  13. John1122
    Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  14. John1122
    That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.
  15. John1122
    Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.
  16. John1122
    I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.
  17. John1122
    There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee.
  18. John1122
    2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.
  19. John1122
    Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours.
  20. John1122
    .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip.
  21. John1122
    Yes, that's what happened here a week later. Power line snapping cement with 2 inch per hour rates for 8+ hours. They literally record 3 to 5 inches for 4 straight days at Tri on the official record. That's a big part of why the extremely low snowfall averages are off in our region. Extremely poor quality control. You can't have a remotely accurate 30 year average when you're missing the biggest events of the timeframe. After looking it adds up to 17.6 falling at Tri airport.
  22. John1122
    It's not right and the maps that accompany them are honestly laughable. As I mentioned, Tri airport goes from 0 snow depth to 13 inches depth on February 2nd-3rd 1996 but has M for snowfall so they don't include it. February 1998, no clue how they missed it. I don't remember it happening how its recorded at Tri, but amounts between 3.4-5.7 inches are recorded over a 4 day span, with something like 18.2 inches falling. But I guess they aren't counting it as one event? No idea honestly. I thought it was a dynamic cooling event that all fell in a shorter time. The Plateau had one a week later with 10-25 inches.
  23. John1122
    Heavy rain and frequent thunder here. Very windy earlier, but it's died down some in the storm.
  24. John1122
    After trying to figure how TYS recorded only 8 inches of snow for the February 1st-2nd 1996 event, I went and looked at the hourly data from Feb 1st and 2nd of that year. I recall the snow starting in Knoxville before it did here as it worked it's way South to North, and it had started here by 7-8 pm. Looking back at old news footage at the time, Knox was reporting snow by 8-9 pm as well. This was a cold event with temps in the upper teens to mid 20s in the area. Snow fell in Knox as the temp dropped quickly from 28 at the start to 19. This should have produced higher ratio snows, and that is reflected in observations that are harder to find than the normal big 3 reporting stations you'll find looking at MRX data, which are Tri/Chatt/Tys. On the hourly reports at Knox from Feb 1st freezing precip starts in the form of freezing rain/fog with 10.5 mile vis, and .02 inches of precip fall as freezing rain. The reports then indicated only fog in Knox, but .12 precip falls, then another period with .12 precip falls, this time the temp is in the 20s and the visibility has fallen to 1 mile at observation time. None of this is recorded as snow. Official data says snowfall 0.00, precip .26. I'm 99.9 percent sure that both periods of .12 were in the form of snow. From midnight to 1am on the 2nd, Knoxville records another .12 precip, once again it's labeled as fog. with a visibility of 1 mile. So .36 has fallen at this point, with 0.00 listed as anything but fog. The next observation says snow .13, followed by snow .15. The snow continues with the aforementioned temps falling into the 10s and finally an observed precip amount of .86 falling as snow. The official snowfall is claimed to be 8 inches from that .86, which I think is absolutely wrong based on QPF, temp profiles and observations all around the site. Knoxville had 1.37 fall as frozen but has missing data listed for snowfall and snow depth for the 1st. I figure the .86 with a lot of it falling at temps below 25 would be close to 10 inches on it's own. I'd guess Tys probably actually had 12+ inches of snow like every other station in it's immediate vicinity. But as Carvers mentioned, it's the year of inexplicably missing snowfall data at the big 3 reporting sites from that time frame.
  25. John1122
    Rogersville reported 17 inches from the storm. So the reports you heard were accurate about heavy snow there.
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