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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south.
  2. John1122
    Any met who mentions sun angle in early February regarding snow potential needs to reexamine climatology for February regarding snowfall in East Tennessee.
  3. John1122
    Todays 18z NAM as the precip moves out overnight Sunday. . 2 Yesterdays for the same 24 hour period. The globals have been catching back onto these events later than the meso models and have had struggles with how far west/northwest the snowfall zones are. Middle and West Tennessee did much better yesterday than the globals suggested. The event in upstate SC/Western NC last week was almost happening before the Euro caught up. I think it was 12z the morning of the event before the Euro had the precip far enough NW for it to fall as frozen.
  4. John1122
    Just in the past 24 hours the NAM has expanded the precip shield NW and made it heavier. Yesterday at 18z the 24 hour snowfall was 50 percent of what it is now with virtually nothing reaching East Tennessee. 18z unfolding now has 1-3 from the Plateau eastward.
  5. John1122
    The massive 10-12 inch rains have backed off. Granted 4 of those inches have already fallen, but it's looking more like 2-5 more over the next 10 days vs the 6-8 after this event that had been shown. Granted it will probably waffle back towards us if the colder solutions don't happen.
  6. John1122
    Hwy 25w is closed here. 5.14 inches of rain from the event so far. Still raining.
  7. John1122
    The GFS got a little better too and the RGEM is catching on as well. The 3k has some 6+ inch lollipops at elevation.
  8. John1122
    Finally loaded in this thread. The 0z NAM is back to widespread 2+ inches with a 5 inch dollop on the Plateau.
  9. John1122
    The NAM is all in for the weekend again. For some reason can't post in the pattern thread.
  10. John1122
    It is absolutely dumping down in buckets out there now with fairly frequent thunder in the area.
  11. John1122
    Just heard thunder rumble. Snow countdown clock is on.
  12. John1122
    Extremely heavy rain currently falling. My power just came back on after going out around 4pm. Crossed the 3 inch mark as of 6:15.
  13. John1122
    Currently at 2.08 inches since Monday evening. Creeks are high and rising and it's pouring down now with a tongue of 3-4 more inches expected through tomorrow. All this coming off the rainiest year ever here, which followed the prior rainiest year ever with the GFS forecasting 12-16 inches of rain for the area over the next 2 weeks. I've had 162 inches of rain in the past 25 months. That's an average of 6.5 inches of rain per month for over 2 consecutive years. That came on the heels of one of the worst droughts we've seen here. The weather is nothing but extremes these days. Extreme warmth, extreme drought, extreme rains, and on the rare times it's managed to get wintry and cold, it was extreme those winters too.
  14. John1122
    As I figured, the Euro goes from major winter storm to nothing burger. Snow modeling doesn't work in this area. Don't know why, it just doesn't. Meanwhile the massive winter storm it forecast in Texas and Oklahoma a week ago is unfolding as expected.
  15. John1122
    It looks like its throwing out about 3-4 inches in West Knoxville.
  16. John1122
    Probably wrong as it often is, but the GFS is unleashing a massive Arctic blast. Has rain here at 240 but a monster HP at 1049 with temps in the -30 range are in the upper midwest. That arctic air would undercut the system that comes by south of here and probably have freezing precip. Especially western Valley. The SE ridge is often vastly over modeled in the face of that kind of Arctic air mass.
  17. John1122
    Granted it's usually easier at night but as long as it comes as snow and we get good rates, day vs night isn't a huge deal, especially in early February.
  18. John1122
    Another good run of the GFS for most people from the Eastern rim and eastward. Solid 2-4 inches in most of those areas.
  19. John1122
    I'll credit the NAM with schooling the other models on the snow system last week in South and North Carolina. It was the first by far to latch onto snow that far north and west when the other model suites were dry or rain. As usual it was over amped though. So I usually shave 35-40 percent off NAM snow maps.
  20. John1122
    WVLT is already saying 2-4 inches for the Plateau in Friday. 3-5 plus eastern areas. Even with multi model consensus at this point it feels early.
  21. John1122
    Euro came in much better for non-elevated areas from Northern Middle all the way to the Eastern Mountains this run. Not quite as heavy at elevated areas but still plenty of 3 inch totals or more for a lot of the eastern half of the valley.
  22. John1122
    It's probably safe to assume the GEFS is way overamped on the MJO. It tends to try and do that and to have it so high it enters phases it never actually reaches because it verifies much lower than predicted. I would have also in the past went on a sled run with the Euro joining a party inside 5 days that shows me with 8 inches of snow. But these days the Euro is only to be used within 24 hours on snow events in our region. It's excellent at other regions though. It's been all over the Texas/Oklahoma event for a week + and it's probably going to get it almost exact. The GFS had the event but was too far South and East with it. The snow event in NC last week, the Euro didn't catch on until the 12z run the day it happened. Not sure why our region is so tough compared to all the others around the country.
  23. John1122
    00z GFS backed down on the heavy snow from 18z but still has some version of it at elevation. NAM is advertising widespread snow showers into Friday morning still. It was better than other models with the NC snow earlier this past weekend. Maybe it's onto something for Tennessee.
  24. John1122
    These big events (maybe not quite this big) used to happen outside the mountains every 15 or 20 years but alas its been a while. Apparently my great grandfather used to tell my grandfather about this one. He was about 12 years old and lived at about 3000 feet on the Scott/Campbell Co line. He just said snow was up to his thighs during the storm. I'd never known the exact dates though. That looks like an all time southeast valley screw job.
  25. John1122
    With the AO about to set another positive record and the Pacific being bad since December, flakes in the air would be a major win. Let alone even the 1 to 3 the GFS spits out in spots.
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