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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    00z GFS has no Scandinavian ridge. Transient cold shots, mostly potential record highs. Hopefully we can get out of the ditch in the next two weeks. If not, it's probably time to completely re-evaluate winter in this part of the world and assume we now have the climate of Central Gulf coast states 20 years ago. Doesn't mean we can get cold or snow any more, just means it will not be a given that we will get snow in winter.
  2. John1122
    2.38 inches and pouring down out there right now with some heavy upstream returns coming. Some flooding issues cropping up in the area and creeks are very high.
  3. John1122
    That was one of the worst/warmest runs I've seen of any model. Keep in mind the GFS has a cold bias and has been verifying about 6 or 7 degrees too cool, even still no one in the forum gets below freezing from Jan 10th-19th. We may have wide spread mid-winter 70s though.
  4. John1122
    00z GFS.
  5. John1122
    Now at 1.28 after moderate/heavy rain for the past few hours.
  6. John1122
    .55 has fallen here so far. I can't imagine we manage a 3rd straight year of much much AN precip.
  7. John1122
    The last time that basically the entire sub forum had winter weather was February 2015. On February 16th-18th almost the entire forum had at least an inch of snow and mixed precip too. It was also close on February 25th the same year. Large snow events for the entire sub forum are rare. You almost never see snow in both Chattanooga and Dyersburg because the events that drive snow for both places are usually different.
  8. John1122
    Last year we went from 7-2 during the warmth and the Pacific didn't even blink. Last year was the queen mother of bad winters.
  9. John1122
    Our best hope is that this is a 6 week type pattern. If it is we will see it start breaking down in about 2 weeks. Which would be great for us because January 15th - February 15th is the prime winter timeframe here when temps are at their lowest and snowfall is at it's most likely. But last year we never got out of a similar 500mb pattern, even though other drivers are different this year, we may not get out of this one. If this one doesn't change even the Smokies would struggle to see even close to normal snow during it. Right now it's probably a coin flip on whether we get a shift. Most other times I'd say we would, but in the current ecosystem we tend to fall into every way possible to stay warm and wet.
  10. John1122
    It is the opposite of good. You want a +PNA that's rising. We can't have any kind of sustained cold or winter weather with a bad Pacific. At most we can get a lucky shot but even that's uncommon. I haven't looked but I'd bet 85+ percent of our cold/snow events feature either s positive or neutral PNA.
  11. John1122
    Euro holds onto a chance of snow showers around sunday. Probably 1 inch or less most places. After that similar up and down right to the GFS through day 10.
  12. John1122
    If we could get that EPO ridging 600 miles east and get it to orient S to N and get roided up like it does, we would be having below 0 weather.
  13. John1122
    It looks like a pattern that's extremely changeable, no sustained torch or cold through mid month. It will be AN but because the AN days will be very much AN.
  14. John1122
    It was going well and the orientation of the high tilts and a trough sprouts under it in the Pac NW. That piece of the PV is dropping towards a good spot though.
  15. John1122
    It looks like it's working towards a -AO with over the top blocking and it's pushing the vortex south into Canada.
  16. John1122
    If you look at the 500mb 48hr forecast trend maps on the GEFS they show lowering heights over the middle of the country to our area and rising heights generally along the west coast. So while there still may be 500mb anomalies in the places that we don't want them, the trend is for them to be less extreme on subsequent runs as they come closer to reality.
  17. John1122
    I will end the year with 81.37 inches of rain, breaking the record set last year, with around 90 years of observations within a 4 mile area here.
  18. John1122
    The GEFS mean through 240 is around .75-1 inch in Jonesboro/Tupelo/Memphis/Chattanooga/Huntsville. 2 inches in Nashville/Clarksville/Cookeville/Knoxvile. 3 inches Crossville/Bristol/Tazewell. 4+ in SWVA. As noted by the individual members it's not a case of 5 monster storms and a bunch of blanks, it's more a lot of members showing around 1-4 inches that gives the mean. That mean almost doubles through 384 along areas north of 40 and especially border areas in Kentucky/VA/Northern Tn. So we might have the warmth to deal with now and will probably see it come back strong a few times in the next few weeks, but we should get the cold and we could have some chances to see white ground over that time frame. The Euro cold shot towards the end of it's run is the kind that would likely result in snow showers hanging around all day as temps struggle to get out of the mid 20s.
  19. John1122
    GEFS still saying we should see something in the next 6-10 days with every member having at least something somewhere in the Valley region.
  20. John1122
    The Euro has two shots of cold and a clipper that puts some snow in the air for a lot of us and snow on the ground for some of us. It's downright frigid at the end of its run.
  21. John1122
    If the 1954 connection continues into 1955 we may be in luck. January started warm that year. Another 70 in Knoxville in the first week of the month. The second half turned cold and there was a big snow event in the 3rd week of the month. February was up and down with another decent event during the month.
  22. John1122
    Thundered here a bit ago. GFS has snow showers in about 5 days.
  23. John1122
    That's impressive. I only made it to 66 today. Which is still extremely warm, but 76 is crazy.
  24. John1122
    Yes, it runs out several weeks like the Euro weeklies. It's resolution is 38km for long leads and 27km like the old GFS in the 10-16 day range. The lower the km the higher the resolution. The Euro for instance, is 9km through 240 hours. The old GFS used to be 27km beyond 240, which is why it switched to 12 hour panels. The new GFS is 13km to the end of the run, which is why it now has 6 hour panels all the way to 384.
  25. John1122
    It's not very skilled for things like that. It's more a broad pattern, longer range model.
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