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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The GFS has thrown us all a bone in the past 24-36 hours. The 18z even bullseyes Chattanooga. Plenty of moisture likely, plenty of cold possible. The eternal struggle in the area is getting them to meet.
  2. John1122
    The MJO takes a trip from 7 to 8 at pretty high amplitude on the GEFS, 7 into the 8 cod on the Euro. CPC notes that the GEFS is usually too amped in the western Pacific, the Euro too weak, so says to split the difference, which would be low amplitude 7-8. If we can have a stocked up Canada with cold, that should produce fireworks of the wintry variety.
  3. John1122
    Of course the Euro throws a turd in the punch bowl. Ugly Pacific. None of the blocking the GFS/GGEM shows.
  4. John1122
    Kuchera through the end of the GFS is just monster to crusher over 50 miles east to west. Looks like maybe an inch in Nashville but 10 in Cookeville. probably 4 or 5 in Murfreesboro. Just west of Nashville a dusting or bare ground. Eastern areas 12+, even near 10 in Chattanooga, 6-8 over alot of Alabama, even 12ish towards Atlanta that run. About 5 runs in a row with various areas getting major winter weather but with precip and temps.
  5. John1122
    Goodness.
  6. John1122
    The GFS must have ran off EPS member 50. Buries Plateau and east. Unfortunately high and dry for the western areas for the most part. Not that its likely to play out as modeled. But lots of cold, storm signals abound and massive Pacific blocking.
  7. John1122
    00z GFS is showing the negative side of massive blocking in the valley. Gulf coast areas see frozen while we are cold and dryish.
  8. John1122
    It's speeding up through 4-5. Going high into 7 has a high correlation to 8-1. Lots of SE winter storms happen in 7 and 8.
  9. John1122
    Break out the vodka. This is noon/1pm temps.
  10. John1122
    Weeklies say goodbye to the heat after this next 7 days or so. After that it's BN to N for the rest of the run.
  11. John1122
    My snow depth on the 23rd is 24 inches on member 50, dang compacting.
  12. John1122
    I could live with that! I'm going to start getting bread and milk now.
  13. John1122
    I saw that MRX actually started putting social media posts out about it already. I wonder how many places in the United States have such a unique local phenomenon. I know Mount Washington gets extremely high winds but I don't know if that has anything to do with mountain waves.
  14. John1122
    Was just about to post that the EPS goes -EPO/+PNA with the coldest anomalies over our forum region.
  15. John1122
    Your area looks like it's in a spot that's liable to get really icy.
  16. John1122
    3 days later another winter storm approaches. Doesn't quite reach here on the precip maps but it's a set up for a classic event here as the Northern edge of precip is almost universally under modeled. Of course it will change 20 times in the next 10 days.
  17. John1122
  18. John1122
    Major winter storm for a lot of the valley on the 00z. Will likely flop around more but definitely a storm signal that keeps moving closer in time with cold air near by.
  19. John1122
    GEFS snow mean is ticking up. Probably some of this is ice/sleet.
  20. John1122
    Pretty happy to see the Euro climbing inside 10 days with this. Also good news on the MJO on both the Euro and GEFS. If we can get the pattern to flip in the Jan 15th to February 15th window we should be in business. Big winter events keep showing up in parts of the forum area, usually in these situations the western areas see it first.
  21. John1122
    If we can get through the next 3 days and keep the extended look and reel it in, I'll feel much better about a decent window for wintry weather in the January 17th-30th timeframe.
  22. John1122
    I'm at 33 currently.
  23. John1122
    All day every day on running with a favorable Pacific. It controls everything up stream for us most of the time. If we want cold air it's not easy to come by unless the Pacific is cooperating somewhere. I've seen a bad Pacific blow a -NAO/-AO but I've rarely seen a favorable Pacific spoiled by the lack of those drivers. We had repeat snow and ice storms along with below 0 cold valley wide just a few years ago with nothing but the EPO in our favor.
  24. John1122
    The GEFS is currently the outlier among all modeling. So we have that on our side for now.
  25. John1122
    Not a particularly great model but supposedly better in winter than other season, the CFS turns us to winter and then has 3 snow events in the January 22-30th timeframe.
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