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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now. I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level.
  2. Surprised MRX said wave two was stronger. OHX earlier said just the opposite, that it was weaker. It coming after dark will greatly aid in stickage.
  3. The tail end of wave one was convective here with very heavy rates and wind. Managed about 1/3rd inch at its peak but the sun came out right after.
  4. Saw photos from the southern Plateau, big flakes and white ground pretty quickly.
  5. Looks like decent returns in middle Tennessee, just not sure of the ground truth to them right now. They should be in Crossville next update. They are moving almost due East so may he good if they don't get downsloped off the Plateau and temps cooperate in the central valley.
  6. MRX actually added my area to the WWA but for elevations higher than me. Holding at 31 degrees up from 25 as the atmosphere tries to saturate. The ground is nicely frozen after being sub freezing for the last 12 hours. Just need to see the moisture actually reach the surface.
  7. Having some virga here. Maybe a flurry or two.
  8. Looks like the best shot of anything sticking lower that 1500ft will be tonight after dark with the second wave.
  9. One difference from tonight into tomorrow vs yesterday, we had been above freezing and had to work our way below freezing on a warmer ground. No worries about that tonight.
  10. Speaking earlier about location during upslope, LeConte is a few miles from Newfound Gap but picked up 7 inches of snow into this morning. Newfound Gap only got an inch.
  11. On the 00z HRRR 700-500mb Lapse rates look to be -7 to -8 in the area into tomorrow. Not absolutely unstable like -10 or more but enough to be considered conditionally unstable. HRRR is .5 to 2 inches over a good part of the Eastern Rim and other areas eastward. The 3+ lollipop shows up in western Cumberland County. The mountains go for 4-8 inches.
  12. Sunrise this morning. I love walking on snowy mornings.
  13. OHX seems to be all in for their Eastern counties. WWA for 1-2 inches plus some more Friday night with a 3rd clipper. MRX less enthusiastic.
  14. Had an 8 foot deep mega pothole/sinkhole open in an area roadway this week. There was a huge one in a backyard a couple weeks ago.
  15. Flow snow is fickle. Elevation helped a lot last night too.
  16. Models look like they are keying on the Southern Plateau for a bullseye spot with the next clipper. Outside the Eastern mountains that area shows up as the winner across 6z/0z model runs.
  17. Pretty good NW flow snow going right now. Temp is 28, hopefully I can keep this going until morning. May squeeze out an inch.
  18. It's the GFS, so probably wrong, but it's pretty aggressive with Clipper 2.
  19. Dusting here with steady snow falling. Not even showing on radar here. With dealing with flow snow in my area only pretty heavy stuff shows up on radar.
  20. Heavier bands have covered some roads in my area too, even in southern Campbell at lower elevations. Multiple trees down across the county too. Was a potent cold front.
  21. Steady snow falling now. Looks like even far western areas are seeing streamers.
  22. I'd guess it reaches the valley areas. Probably earlier than forecast too. My point forecast said 10pm. It switched before 5pm here. Wind has now knocked out the power here.
  23. Second the wind Holston referred to. Its gusting over 30 here, especially during snow showers. Just drove across town in a sideways shower.
  24. Switched to snow here. Looks like a break then more precip West of here.
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