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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    We had a warning but 0 thunder. Just a lot of wind.
  2. John1122
    Front just passed here a few minutes ago. Temp has fallen from 64 to 55 in the last 30 minutes.
  3. John1122
    The RGEM, GFS and 3k NAM all have some flakes in my area Thursday evening. Temps are around 35 here at this frame. It was 88 degrees here on October 1st. 50+ degree drop in a month. Its like we had about 15 days of fall this year.
  4. John1122
    It was off by 36 hours or so and too far SE with the low, but that's impressively close for a system from 15 days out.
  5. John1122
    So much soaking rain for hs football tonight. Still drenching down out there. All fall drought/fire concerns are now close to 0. Picked up .88 so far since it started this afternoon with plenty more in the pipeline.
  6. John1122
    See that here all the time, I live in an elevated bowl, I've seen 200 feet rise in elevation make 15 degrees difference in temperatures.
  7. John1122
    34 here this morning. Another frosty one with no freeze.
  8. John1122
    35 and crisp out there this morning. This year is probably the most mornings in the 32-36 range without going well below 32 in a while. Seems like the past several years just went from 40s to a hard freeze with no middle ground.
  9. John1122
    GFS stepped towards the Euro, no more open wave that just blows through the area. It bullseyes Chattanooga with 5 or so inches of rain this weekend. 2-3 for most of the rest if the Valley.
  10. John1122
    The Euro is extremely wet, especially for the southern valley where the drought has been the worst. It's spitting out some 5-8+ inch rain totals over the next 10 days in Northern Alabama. 2-4 pretty wide spread over the rest of the region except for Memphis/Eastern Arkansas where it's closer to 1-2 inches. GFS is way drier and only gets Nashville East basically with it's heaviest rains being far Eastern areas and Western NC.
  11. John1122
    Ended up with 1.69 inches in the last 24 hours. You can see the elevation enhancement on this precip map from the sw/ne orientation of the precip. Extra orographic lift starts in E. Morgan County and enhances precip over my area quite often.
  12. John1122
    Great rains rolling through the last several hours. Heaviest since August, had very little rain in September and most of October but will still finish probably 20 inches AN on the year.
  13. John1122
    Only made 33 this morning, didn't go quite as low as I expected. If the models are right, and we know how big that if is, we may all blow through freezing in about 7-10 days.
  14. John1122
    37 currently, but at 100 percent humidity. Should have a heavy frost again by morning. Expecting 30-32 by morning.
  15. John1122
    Ended up at 34 this morning. I expect I may dip below freezing tonight.
  16. John1122
    Another crisp morning, 37 degrees currently, probably have another degree or two down we can squeeze out.
  17. John1122
    It snowed here several times in October 1995, one about 3/4ths of an inch. Didn't slow winter of 1995-96. Also had 3 inches Halloween 1993, January 1994 was brutal.
  18. John1122
    Stinks for the southern Valley areas that they missed this round. Hopefully the next round comes along and does better. Per MRX most areas along and north of 40 received .80-1.3 inches of rain. I ended up with .83 which with the cool day, has actually stuck around a little bit.
  19. John1122
    I'm not 100 percent sure for NE Arkansas, because it was less a correlation for Memphis than the rest of the great valley, but looking into it last year BN Novembers produced memorable cold/snow/ice outbreaks in about 7 of 10 winters. Unfortunately last year didn't work out so well for most of us, falling into the 3 in 10 that don't work out so well. I know for my area a cold November is something I'd rather have on my side than not. Warm Novembers fell flat about 7 in 10 times during winter. With both those said, it seems like analogs are less useful these days in the new climate normals we are seeing these days.
  20. John1122
    Had a fairly heavy shower, .14 fell in about 30 minutes. Hopefully the heavy rain out west can stay in one piece as it moves this way. Would love to pick up a nice 1/2 inch or so from this.
  21. John1122
    It's wild how much warmer you've been than my area when we normally have similar temperatures.
  22. John1122
    The EPO has been predominantly negative since June, if we can keep that up, it could make winter interesting. It drove winter for several seasons in a row when all the other teleconnections looked bad.
  23. John1122
    It's odd that the graphics suggest warmer than average temps here during the -PDO but during the -PDO of the mid 1940s to the late 1970s we saw our coldest and most snowy winters. In te core of that -PDO that started in 1947, from 1955-1970, for instance was far far cooler on average in winter than the 1985-2000 period in the + PDO that flipped in the late 1970s. ;Looking at the graphic below, you can almost match it up that when it's in the warm or +PDO phase, it's warmer than normal here, when it's in the cool or -PDO phase, it's cooler than normal here.
  24. John1122
    I'm not sure if it makes much difference at all, but the snow cover in the NH is much more expansive right now than last year at this time in our source regions. Last year NE Canada had more snow than this year. Russia, Siberia, Alaska, Western Canada and the upper Midwest are far more snow covered at this time vs last year on this same day.
  25. John1122
    Another frosty morning, 35 this time. Leaves are hitting the gas and turning quickly.
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