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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I believe the control is a lower resolution run of the main model but not 100 percent sure.
  2. John1122
    Virtually all leaves are gone here except for a few trees, but elevation didn't play a role this year here either. The peak was short and almost universal over about a 2000 foot elevation window.
  3. John1122
    I feel like going full weenie over the Euro, but I know that is extremely unlikely to unfold favorably for us. I'm going to minor weenie and cling onto the hopes of a dusting to an inch on Tuesday.
  4. John1122
    Euro and GFS back way off. Canadian still healthy for eastern areas. Don't trust any of them at this range as sad as that is, but feel like backside flurries with some flow snow showers is probably going to be correct.
  5. John1122
    I assume the TWC forecast must auto generate off one of the models. It throws out 1-3 inches Monday night with a low in the upper 20s and 1-3 Tuesday with a high of 29 for my area.
  6. John1122
    All 3 major models are spitting out snow for the area, most of the valley would see at least 1/4th to 1/2 inch on car tops etc with some areas getting 1-3 inches from most of the 0z suite. I have a hard time believing it but we've seen more unusual/out of area/out of season type snows in the south than actual winter type snows lately it seems. So maybe it's our time to get lucky for a change instead of New Orleans, Houston or other places normally hostile to snow.
  7. John1122
    Euro is a Miller A, but further north than the GFS but is a healthy snow system from Nashville to Maryville and points north with flakes in the air at least for most of the forum region.
  8. John1122
    0z GFS is bouncing a little more back to earlier runs vs the 18z run that was a bunch of nothing. Great Miller A track with a classically underdone precip shield in our area. Some rock solid snow for central Alabama though.
  9. John1122
    I'm a fan of Pivotal Weather's Euro access, gonna support them via Patron in hopes it can stay free for everyone.
  10. John1122
    The Euro is bone chilling after the snow, shows temps in the single digits in the forum area. It has a 4 degree temp imby and a -3 over the Smokies.
  11. John1122
    The Canadian almost looks like a very far south Miller B. Looks like a low transfers from the western gulf to off the Florida coast but it could just be a low developing late on the front. I've seen the concert the GFS is singing way too many times last year when it was the para to believe it's suddenly right. It would do this up until 24-36 hours out last winter. The Euro did a few times as well. That said, large snow events happen here in November, I'll have to look up the last one though, seems like it's been a while.
  12. John1122
    The Euro isn't far off with upper features but it just doesn't get the moisture transport up the front out of Texas and get the miller A going. Huge high on the GFS and Euro. That's some January stuff. Will see how close they verify. Last year both models had issues with too high of pressure dropping out of Canada. In this case, they could lose 5mb and still be big highs.
  13. John1122
    For the shorter term the best things to look for are where blocking sets up in the Pacific and over the Arctic/Atlantic. That will show whether or not we have trough east and ridge west or if we get the ridge with a western trough. You're far enough West that for you a decent case is for us to have a bit of a SE Ridge. You want Apps runners or southern sliders. But all in all it's tough to get anything particularly accurate about the pattern at 500mb beyond 10-14 days. Jax is good with fronts crossing Asia and how they propagate around the globe, but they don't really apply to the long lead you're looking at when you're talking 1 to 3 months. For the Eastern 2/3rds of the forum a cold November led to a colder and often snowy/icy winter roughly 7 of every 10 times they happened. For the western valley areas like Memphis to NE Arkansas and N Miss, the correlation was less. More like 50/50. If the Eastern valley, Nashville, Knox, Chatt, Huntsville, Tri, SE Ky, SWVA etc have a warm November, we are the other side of the coin with about 7 in 10 leading to a warm winter. Jackson, Memphis, Jonesboro, Tupelo weren't as affected by a warm November. I believe they were also around 50/50 on that one too. Meaning you guys had equal chances at a cold or warm winter no matter how November went. Not sure why it worked out differently over a relatively short distance. But there was a stark difference between even Clarksville and Memphis.
  14. John1122
    The Euro and GFS keep the flake chances next Sunday. The Euro is more aggressive than the GFS, especially from Nashville to Eastern Kentucky with 3/4ths inch over the Northern middle Tn areas, 1.5ish into Kentucky. The GFS would just be some flakes in the area. The Canadian has a western Valley ice event centered Eastern Arkansas to Jackson. Stiff coldfront and it's not warm before it arrives. Temps are in the mid 40s ahead of the front on the EURO, mid 10s to low 20s behind it 24 hours later. The Euro looks like the cold squeezing moisture in the form of snow with anafrontal snow behind the front.
  15. John1122
    1989 had similar November cold. I can remember going deer hunting and it was 13 degrees with flurries when I left. That led into the extremely frigid December but of course 1990 broke warm.
  16. John1122
    28 with some freezing fog. Making things super frosty out.
  17. John1122
    The analog of BN November = good winter may fall on it's face again this winter but since today is well BN the next 16 days per the GFS ENS should be uniformly below normal. Let's hope it falls into the more traditional mode of BN November = memorable winter for cold and snowy reasons rather than memorable for nearly wall to wall warmth and no snow like last year. Analogs are never perfect but an approximately 70% correlation is pretty strong over an 80 year period on both sides of the coin. That's why I'll always take my chances with a cool November over a warm one for winter purposes. If you are in the far western Valley/Eastern Arkansas your correlation wasn't as strong either way. So you can pretty much have an equal shot at either type of winter regardless of November patterns, based on the last 100 years or so of data from Memphis.
  18. John1122
    The 80s will fall off the 30 year climate normals soon, when it does it will be much easier to have "below normal" temps in winter.
  19. John1122
    Light snow and 36 degrees here, looks like some flow precip is going.
  20. John1122
    NW wind at 24, temp is now at 45 and falling fast. Feels like a true winter front as advertised from several days ago by Jax.
  21. John1122
    The Claiborne Progress reported that they received a report of a tornado on the ground in Tazewell, but it may have been a prank, because apparently the report says the touchdown was on the football field at a local middle school.
  22. John1122
    We had a warning but 0 thunder. Just a lot of wind.
  23. John1122
    Front just passed here a few minutes ago. Temp has fallen from 64 to 55 in the last 30 minutes.
  24. John1122
    The RGEM, GFS and 3k NAM all have some flakes in my area Thursday evening. Temps are around 35 here at this frame. It was 88 degrees here on October 1st. 50+ degree drop in a month. Its like we had about 15 days of fall this year.
  25. John1122
    It was off by 36 hours or so and too far SE with the low, but that's impressively close for a system from 15 days out.
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